Ok seriously, consumer 16 TB M.2 is pretty close. Maybe 2025. Density needs to quadruple to get you to 64 GB. If density grows by 30% a year, we'll get that in about 5.3 years, so around 2030-2031.
Yes, it's inevitable. Even beyond those, 6 and 7 bpc, doubtless OLC, ELC, and DLC are going to come at some point. It will interesting to see when a hard limit is reached on this technology. As the CPU, a breakthrough beyond silicon and electrons will be needed at length.
why are we limiting to m2 slot instead of pcie slot? and that gave me a wild idea: an m2 extension cable that hooks into a new square form factor ssd that mounts onto existing case fan slots
You aren't really limited by anything but money. You can go buy this 60 TB SSD right now and use an adapter to fit it in a typical consumer system. But only a certain amount of chips can fit on M.2 2280/2580/25110, so that would keep the cost in check.
My understanding is this is a PCIE device. Not an M.2 device. So the cable would go to an M.2 connection on the mobo to a PCIE connection on the device.
Consumers ate up M.2 and don't want a high performing U.2 standard which is used in Enterprise and many people want simple garbage storage and latency laden non consistent M.2 SSDs. not a single M.2 drive will retain it's BS marketing PR numbers after 900 Seconds. Only Solid State Storage that does is OPTANE which is dead or that old SLC which also dead.
60 TB SSD is next to worthless if it is only doing 600 MB/s. You can stack as many storage chips as you want in a small space. The issue is the controller/interface. You need a controller that can handle NVME speeds and ALSO do the trim. Gotta love the trim.
'To that end, its write endurance is 0.26 drive writes per day (DWPD) over five years.'
And the read endurance? Since there are so many voltage states to manage and Samsung couldn't keep planar TLC under control (840 series), I wonder if latency will also increase.
How often does this NAND need to be powered on, to prevent data loss?
Not only we get absolute scraps but also worthless drives with no longevity or stability factor.
Samsung dropped NAND ball long time back once they started PRO with TLC and with the latest 980 and 990 the firmware issues are insane, then the Endurance rating is literally 1/2 or a bit more than competing drives. Mind you SKHynix, WD also same garbage drives with poor endurance.
Sabrent used to have 6.8PBW for a 4TB PCIe 3.0x4 NVMe consumer drive now not a single drive is having even 1/2 of that. Even their 8TB $1000 drive is just 5.6PBW.
Seagate built 530 series PCIe4.0 with 5.1PBW but the drives were unstable mess.
Meanwhile Enterprise TLC NAND SSDs even SATA6 have over 14PBW endurance. Once people realized they shot up in price to $1k+ mark now, esp Samsung.
Intel DC series PCIe with 2.5" SSDs are also dropped to low prices but once people started to buy they went too high in pricing. Now Intel even exited that market and gave it all away to SKH who is making QLC garbage now.
Intel squandered Optane tech as well, blew a ton of cash on useless BS baggage and killed best alternative to Solid State Storage medium that world has ever seen with insane Longevity, Performance, Latency what not.
Users are also to blame, many people now shifted to streaming only or don't bother archiving so the M.2 SSDs peaked at 4TB tops. Let alone they realize M.2 is garbage and U.2 is way superior. Sadly only EVGA gave U.2 option not a single $1300 Mainstream mobo gives that connector, stupid adapters are a headache.
What a messy industry, I still rely on HDDs, at-least they have increased capacity. 24TB is availble now. Soon 30TB.
I tend to agree. SSDs were supposed to replace HDDs but where has that happened? Instead, it's been greed, and rubbish getting pushed down to us but sold at the price of quality.
Are there any motherboards that support vertical M.2 slots instead of horizontal?
I've always wondered why M.2 (and CAMM2) was a horizontal standard. Sure, it makes it easier to screw it down, but the cards are light enough that a locking vertical connector (like locking PCIe slots for GPUs and other, larger 16x cards) should be doable.
Would take up a lot less motherboard space if the slots were vertical. Be easier to cool, too, as you'd get airflow over both sides of the PCB.
Currently, the only way to get a vertical M.2 setup is with a PCIe-to-M.2 add-in card, and that relies on either motherboard support for bifurcation or PLX chips on the card.
All that fancy hot-swap backplanes in servers are vertical, after all.
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GeoffreyA - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
Wonder when the rest of us get to join the 60 TB Club ;)nandnandnand - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
When you start making that dough.Ok seriously, consumer 16 TB M.2 is pretty close. Maybe 2025. Density needs to quadruple to get you to 64 GB. If density grows by 30% a year, we'll get that in about 5.3 years, so around 2030-2031.
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ssds/16...
nandnandnand - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
*64 TBUnfortunately the NAND used will be PLC/HLC
GeoffreyA - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
I do wonder about the cost though, and now, going from QLC to PLC. Alas, what's on the horizon after that? DLC...nandnandnand - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
6 bpc, 7 bpc, are being seriously considered:https://www.anandtech.com/show/17116/startup-showc...
https://www.kioxia.com/en-jp/rd/technology/topics/...
8 bpc (OLC) NAND has only really been mentioned in a false Wccftech story:
https://wccftech.com/exclusive-micron-octa-level-c...
GeoffreyA - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
Yes, it's inevitable. Even beyond those, 6 and 7 bpc, doubtless OLC, ELC, and DLC are going to come at some point. It will interesting to see when a hard limit is reached on this technology. As the CPU, a breakthrough beyond silicon and electrons will be needed at length.kn00tcn - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
why are we limiting to m2 slot instead of pcie slot? and that gave me a wild idea: an m2 extension cable that hooks into a new square form factor ssd that mounts onto existing case fan slotsnandnandnand - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
You aren't really limited by anything but money. You can go buy this 60 TB SSD right now and use an adapter to fit it in a typical consumer system. But only a certain amount of chips can fit on M.2 2280/2580/25110, so that would keep the cost in check.[email protected] - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
My understanding is this is a PCIE device. Not an M.2 device. So the cable would go to an M.2 connection on the mobo to a PCIE connection on the device.Silver5urfer - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
Consumers ate up M.2 and don't want a high performing U.2 standard which is used in Enterprise and many people want simple garbage storage and latency laden non consistent M.2 SSDs. not a single M.2 drive will retain it's BS marketing PR numbers after 900 Seconds. Only Solid State Storage that does is OPTANE which is dead or that old SLC which also dead.Golgatha777 - Monday, July 8, 2024 - link
Still using my 16GB OPTANE drive to install Windows 10/11 from. I'll probably die before it does.[email protected] - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
60 TB SSD is next to worthless if it is only doing 600 MB/s. You can stack as many storage chips as you want in a small space. The issue is the controller/interface. You need a controller that can handle NVME speeds and ALSO do the trim. Gotta love the trim.[email protected] - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
The article calls this an SSD. This is really a PCIE device?Hresna - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
A Solid State Drive with a PCIe interface, yes.Oxford Guy - Saturday, July 6, 2024 - link
'To that end, its write endurance is 0.26 drive writes per day (DWPD) over five years.'And the read endurance? Since there are so many voltage states to manage and Samsung couldn't keep planar TLC under control (840 series), I wonder if latency will also increase.
How often does this NAND need to be powered on, to prevent data loss?
GeoffreyA - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
Good question. A point that's often swept under the carpet.Silver5urfer - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
Consumer M.2 standard is really complete rubbish.Not only we get absolute scraps but also worthless drives with no longevity or stability factor.
Samsung dropped NAND ball long time back once they started PRO with TLC and with the latest 980 and 990 the firmware issues are insane, then the Endurance rating is literally 1/2 or a bit more than competing drives. Mind you SKHynix, WD also same garbage drives with poor endurance.
Sabrent used to have 6.8PBW for a 4TB PCIe 3.0x4 NVMe consumer drive now not a single drive is having even 1/2 of that. Even their 8TB $1000 drive is just 5.6PBW.
Seagate built 530 series PCIe4.0 with 5.1PBW but the drives were unstable mess.
Meanwhile Enterprise TLC NAND SSDs even SATA6 have over 14PBW endurance. Once people realized they shot up in price to $1k+ mark now, esp Samsung.
Intel DC series PCIe with 2.5" SSDs are also dropped to low prices but once people started to buy they went too high in pricing. Now Intel even exited that market and gave it all away to SKH who is making QLC garbage now.
Intel squandered Optane tech as well, blew a ton of cash on useless BS baggage and killed best alternative to Solid State Storage medium that world has ever seen with insane Longevity, Performance, Latency what not.
Users are also to blame, many people now shifted to streaming only or don't bother archiving so the M.2 SSDs peaked at 4TB tops. Let alone they realize M.2 is garbage and U.2 is way superior. Sadly only EVGA gave U.2 option not a single $1300 Mainstream mobo gives that connector, stupid adapters are a headache.
What a messy industry, I still rely on HDDs, at-least they have increased capacity. 24TB is availble now. Soon 30TB.
GeoffreyA - Sunday, July 7, 2024 - link
I tend to agree. SSDs were supposed to replace HDDs but where has that happened? Instead, it's been greed, and rubbish getting pushed down to us but sold at the price of quality.phoenix_rizzen - Monday, July 8, 2024 - link
Are there any motherboards that support vertical M.2 slots instead of horizontal?I've always wondered why M.2 (and CAMM2) was a horizontal standard. Sure, it makes it easier to screw it down, but the cards are light enough that a locking vertical connector (like locking PCIe slots for GPUs and other, larger 16x cards) should be doable.
Would take up a lot less motherboard space if the slots were vertical. Be easier to cool, too, as you'd get airflow over both sides of the PCB.
Currently, the only way to get a vertical M.2 setup is with a PCIe-to-M.2 add-in card, and that relies on either motherboard support for bifurcation or PLX chips on the card.
All that fancy hot-swap backplanes in servers are vertical, after all.