WD failed at SSDs? So far, they've put out some very good SSD products. I'd say that's a success. Though I can't speak to how much money they made on those SSD products.
The article touched on this with "The 3D NAND and SSD markets are highly competitive commodity markets".
Basically everyone's prices are competitive, so margins are low.
The fluctuations in supply, demand and cost also make SSDs a precarious business. You can't be sure in advance that the products will fetch a reasonable margin in a given quarter or year.
Seagate Technology has a 2.7% market share in the global SSD market. The company's revenue from its SSD division in 2020 was approximately $360 million.
My understanding is the margins on HDD, even as they dwindle in price and relevancy is still exceptionally good, and as it is a captive market of 2 players(Seagate + WD) and there is still many applications that are good enough for spinning rust, it will be a very long and drawn out winding down of HDD, especially as they maintain better cost per bit compared to their flash counterparts.
I would have loved to see a wedded product that appeared to have the speed of ssd with the cost capacity of HDD, but the SSHD of 2015 provided neither and the product class ended before much innovation occurred. Really cheap QLC pushed them out as no one tried to do it with truly large drives (8tb+). but for any Nand drive above 4tb is size, there is a much cheaper HDD filling that need and if you can live with the access times(as well as risk tolerance of the whole drive going out), HDD have a firm place for the foreseeable future.
Two years 16TB WD Gold HDD was $330, now they sell it for $360 and have essentially no competition. Two years ago 2TB WD Blach NVMe was $400+, now it is almost 3x cheaper having fierce competition.
Things are that SSDs are not competing with good HDDs like WD specifically Gold are. They are different purpose products. Other companies so far were not able to compete with WD in quality, so the demand for them will be stable if not growing given the Big Data explosion.
NAND hasn't much of a future either given endurance issues compounded by increasing numbers of bits per cell impacting both longevity and cold storage tolerance.
While it won't last forever, we don't seem to be near the limits of NAND. I also feared the wear issues but they have turned out to be massively overblown for consumer and enthusiast workloads.
We are at the point where 1~4TB TLC drives have something like 1600~2400TB endurance. And you don't even have to look at QLC drives, because TLC is at price parity with QLC.
I did not use couple of MLC SSDs for 3-4 years and when recently tried to read from them a half of files showed errors. HDDs always were way more stable
Thanks! And that's right: temperature has a hand in this. I had completely forgotten. Really, it's a bit scary, and shows us that HDDs and other classical media aren't going anywhere.
You've got it backwards. They're splitting the company so that as the HDD part gradually shrinks and eventually goes bust it doesn't take down the NAND business with it. Expect it to be loaded down with as much debt and corporate deadwood as they can get away with, while any misc money makers are kept on the NAND side.
WD business model is different compare to seagate. WD has a stake at kioxia which means they have investment in nand fab while seagate does not. Additionally WD is playing catchup with seagate on the hdd side for hamr drives. both give me an impression that seagate is a better competitor.
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meacupla - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
This made me curious.Why did WD fail at SSDs, when Seagate succeeded? (at least so far)
ballsystemlord - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
WD failed at SSDs? So far, they've put out some very good SSD products. I'd say that's a success. Though I can't speak to how much money they made on those SSD products.meacupla - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
Yes, I have a few WD SSDs. They're good drives.But having a good product doesn't mean it's successful business model.
For example, Intel Optane.
StevoLincolnite - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
Optane. D: *Wipes away tears with SSD tissues*ballsystemlord - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
I feel the same way, sniff.GeoffreyA - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
It's strange because when looking at SSDs, WD is everywhere and the prices are always competitive. One gets the impression that they are top sellers.Hul8 - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
The article touched on this with "The 3D NAND and SSD markets are highly competitive commodity markets".Basically everyone's prices are competitive, so margins are low.
The fluctuations in supply, demand and cost also make SSDs a precarious business. You can't be sure in advance that the products will fetch a reasonable margin in a given quarter or year.
GeoffreyA - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
Agreed.meacupla - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
Yeah, but what I want to know is why Seagate, who also sells a variety of SSDs, wasn't affected by this.timecop1818 - Saturday, March 9, 2024 - link
Seagate makes ssds? I've never heard of them. what are some market segments they cover??GeoffreyA - Saturday, March 9, 2024 - link
They do, but aren't as prominent as the usual suspects, or at least not in the public consciousness.timecop1818 - Saturday, March 9, 2024 - link
i googled and apparentlySeagate Technology has a 2.7% market share in the global SSD market. The company's revenue from its SSD division in 2020 was approximately $360 million.
ballsystemlord - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
So if HDDs are a thing of the past, wouldn't WD want to wind down that part of the company and go all out on NAND?Methinks they see a future in HDDs.
cyrusfox - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
My understanding is the margins on HDD, even as they dwindle in price and relevancy is still exceptionally good, and as it is a captive market of 2 players(Seagate + WD) and there is still many applications that are good enough for spinning rust, it will be a very long and drawn out winding down of HDD, especially as they maintain better cost per bit compared to their flash counterparts.I would have loved to see a wedded product that appeared to have the speed of ssd with the cost capacity of HDD, but the SSHD of 2015 provided neither and the product class ended before much innovation occurred. Really cheap QLC pushed them out as no one tried to do it with truly large drives (8tb+). but for any Nand drive above 4tb is size, there is a much cheaper HDD filling that need and if you can live with the access times(as well as risk tolerance of the whole drive going out), HDD have a firm place for the foreseeable future.
SanX - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
Two years 16TB WD Gold HDD was $330, now they sell it for $360 and have essentially no competition.Two years ago 2TB WD Blach NVMe was $400+, now it is almost 3x cheaper having fierce competition.
Ptosio - Friday, March 8, 2024 - link
Which means, at this trajectory, HDDs will soon facefierce competition from SSDs.How many use cases would call for HDD if SSD is price competitive?
SanX - Friday, March 8, 2024 - link
Things are that SSDs are not competing with good HDDs like WD specifically Gold are. They are different purpose products. Other companies so far were not able to compete with WD in quality, so the demand for them will be stable if not growing given the Big Data explosion.PeachNCream - Wednesday, March 6, 2024 - link
NAND hasn't much of a future either given endurance issues compounded by increasing numbers of bits per cell impacting both longevity and cold storage tolerance.Reflex - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
While it won't last forever, we don't seem to be near the limits of NAND. I also feared the wear issues but they have turned out to be massively overblown for consumer and enthusiast workloads.meacupla - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
We are at the point where 1~4TB TLC drives have something like 1600~2400TB endurance.And you don't even have to look at QLC drives, because TLC is at price parity with QLC.
SanX - Saturday, March 9, 2024 - link
I did not use couple of MLC SSDs for 3-4 years and when recently tried to read from them a half of files showed errors. HDDs always were way more stableGeoffreyA - Saturday, March 9, 2024 - link
If I remember rightly, NAND is able to store data offline for a year or so.ballsystemlord - Sunday, March 10, 2024 - link
It's a little more complicated than that. AT did a piece on this subject, but that was for MLC NAND.https://www.anandtech.com/show/9248/the-truth-abou...
GeoffreyA - Monday, March 11, 2024 - link
Thanks! And that's right: temperature has a hand in this. I had completely forgotten. Really, it's a bit scary, and shows us that HDDs and other classical media aren't going anywhere.GeoffreyA - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
And their speciality is HDDs, whereas seemingly, every Tom, Dick, and Harry can throw together an SSD these days.DanNeely - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
You've got it backwards. They're splitting the company so that as the HDD part gradually shrinks and eventually goes bust it doesn't take down the NAND business with it. Expect it to be loaded down with as much debt and corporate deadwood as they can get away with, while any misc money makers are kept on the NAND side.zhiling0229 - Thursday, March 7, 2024 - link
WD business model is different compare to seagate. WD has a stake at kioxia which means they have investment in nand fab while seagate does not. Additionally WD is playing catchup with seagate on the hdd side for hamr drives. both give me an impression that seagate is a better competitor.