TSMCs fabs are nearly worthless to China. The day they invade the service contracts are toast. Without service all the tools will be dead within a month maybe two.
Well they will just copy them I hear you say. If it were that easy they would have their on ALDs, EUV steppers and more. They don't because it isn't easy.
The damage an invasion would do to the world economy would be very great, but the world is now building capacity elsewhere. People forget Korea quite a lot. Micron, Intel and GF matter quite a lot too. But yes the world will be in trouble without UMC and TSMC; but then so much manufacturing of so many things is done in China I'm not sure chips would be the first things on people's lips. It would be pharmaceutical precursors probably. Nitrile rubber. Remember masks?
Anyway you can't really steal and take over a foundary unless everyone agreeing to keep it alive stays on board and given it is mostly Japanese, EU and US firms that isn't going happen.
Correct- those production lines have to to run perfectly, or they are done. They had that tiny voltage fluctuation a year or 2 ago and it wiped out a months worth of chips. Now imagine how long if ever it would take to get them running after a "war"..
It does not matter as, TSMC is only the manufacturer. The tool used to manufacture is still built in EU. So, if things hit the fan, then China will have the existing machines, but only until it breaks down.
The bleeding edge will remain in Taiwan, as it ensures its independence. If not for the semiconductor industry, I believe China could've already invaded.
No, it's happening within 10 years. At least that is the plan, given that China pulled bizarre shenanigans to stir trouble on Indian border to use it as an excuse to break agreements and build troops on the border. There is only one reason that makes sense, they need troops on that border (guarding the flank) when they launch their action on Taiwan with most of their troops.
To be fair, it is a breakaway province of China populated by people that have differing opinions about the structure of governance. I hope that those differences can be resolved through diplomacy, but in the end, as long as the collective West keeps tampering in internal Chinese affairs for their own profit and gain, the situation will remain a possible flashpoint for dangerous military escalation. If the US were to reconsider its involvement and show mutual respect for other nations, none of this would be a problem and I would think both the US and China could operate as allies instead of antagonists. That decision to act as a responsible, mature nation resides with US policymakers and elected officials and we all know how that goes when US voters are left to their own devices to select those policy-setting people. It's just as bad as the SUVs they drive and all of the waste they engage in while living selfishly and thoughtlessly.
That's fair to assert. The United States is still the rightful property of the United Kingdom in your reasoning. However, we know that in US thinking, might makes right which is why mainland China really should be left alone to assert it's territorial claim over its wayward people.
I haven't any idea why TSMC hasn't put more fabs in more places outside Taiwan though.
5 RMB has been added to your weabo account. You have done a service for your country. The CCP are the clear aggressors, It is their unwillingness to participate in the global economy fairly coming to bite them. Their growth was entirely because the US allowed them to trade while not being a proper capitalist, and now those times are ending since they refuse to participate fairly despite being the 2nd largest economy. The communist were dirty pigs in WW2 and Mao and his consequences have been a disaster for china and her people.
I'm not even sure where to start with this. TSMC is more the matter here rather than what you are presenting as a pretty angry, revisionist perspective of history. If the western nations and Taiwan were willing to work together with China and not worry so much about what the internal governmental structure looks like elsewhere, there could be more free trade and lower costs for goods and services. China, for example, already makes some of the least expensive automobiles and has for quite some time, but western nations have prevented imports with a variety of legal and trade barriers to allow inferior locally made, fuel-inefficient vehicles to remain on their roads because of nothing more than fear of competition which, by they way, is rather oppositional to the idea of a free market.
That's not really relevant to the discussion. The people split away from the mainland and rather than be objectionable, leaning on other meddling nations motivated by greed for support, they could simply work mutually with the mainland to build synergies. People do better, greater things when they work together.
Agreed so much! It is a China matter to be resolved by the Chinese people. I wish others in the English-speaking world had a similar perspective and would leave them to settle that matter the way they believe would be best for their people. Outside interference just demonstrates the greed and self-centered thinking that prevails among Europe and the US.
The only "Chinese people" in a position to resolve anything are those living in democratic Taiwan, and they have chosen not to be a part of the PRC. The only "Chinese people" in the PRC who have any power to resolve anything are the autocrats at the top of the communist party.
There is nothing at all "fair" in your post, instead there's a ton of false equivalence and disingenuousness. "Differing opinions about the structure of governance" sounds so benign, but this "difference in opinion" is that the Taiwanese want a democracy while autocrats running the PRC want to also be autocrats running Taiwan. You might as well say that slaves and slaveholders have a "differing opinions about the nature of property rights" or that nazis and jews have "differing opinions about issues involving biology and genetics."
The best American analogy that I can think of to the Taiwan situation is Puerto Rico. If the PRC handled Taiwan in the same way that the US handles Puerto Rico (which is essentially indifference -- if PR wants to leave fine, if they want to be a state fine, if they want to continue as a territory fine), there would be no problem. But PRC is terrified of their people getting crazy democratic ideas in their heads, and Taiwan is an example of Chinese people living in a relatively free and open democratic society. That example terrifies PRC leadership and they want that example eradicated.
The whole "US show respect to other nations" thing is BS. You mean, show respect to the *leaders" of other nations, specifically the leader of China, not respect to the nation itself. And the respect you demand, oh PRC mouthpiece that you clearly are (because the talking points are so clearly aligned with PRC propaganda), is not reciprocated. China shows no respect to Japan or India. The US treats China with kid gloves compared to how China treats Japan.
"Having said that, our internal assessments show that our N3P, now I repeat again, N3P technology demonstrated (a) comparable PPA to 18A, my competitors’ technology. But with an earlier time to market, better technology maturity and much better cost."
Mark Liu and CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swan @ Intel
Please do make this stupidity go away unnoticed, report it as it is, Backside Power Delivery is bring noticeable advantage in density and power efficiency. How can N3P compete with Intel 18A.
A 2NM fab without EUV High NA so what is this different to Intel Ireland Fab 34? TSMC is no longer the bleeding edge, it should be call leading edge.
Intel is most likely going to be on par and have backside power first.
I get quite annoyed with writeups that bracket the relabeled Intel 4 nodes as (formerly 7 nm). These lengths are fantasies. Intel 4 is about TSMC 4 in density and other metrics. The relabeling is basically fair though no two nodes is exactly the same.
Who will deliver good GAA devices in volume first is really the next milestone. Samsung already has limited volume of them, I believe I read yields are rather bad. The other milestone is backside power. Intel's coming nodes have them both. High-NA EUV should improve yield on 18 A even if they don't start with it.
I don't think ASIC designers are dumb, if Intel 20A and 18A are good I expect a ton of AI ASICs on it. Qualcom seems an obvious user as do Amazon, and Microsoft. Tesla? the RISC V companies? Nvidia, Apple and AMD are trickier given their long relationships with TSMC. If we don't see some of the first list taping out major chips on Intel 20A/18A and instead going for TSMC 3 nodes we will know. We will also know by Lunar Lake or the chip that follows it (I know one Lunar Lake version will be done on TSMC node), but Intel's own choices will show the what 18A and 20A are best for.
I don't think ASIC designer are dumb as well, we all understanding and I am talking about fact, if you do agree with the following fact then the whole argument I put here I will admit I am wrong.
1) TSMC N3B and TSMC N3E have a different with different design rules and we needed a redesign to move from N3B to N3E. 2) TSMC N3E is not as good in density but it much cheaper to made. 3) Apple N3B processors did not move to N3E at this moment, as even Apple will not redesign it. 4) Intel 20A/18A with Backside Power Delivery and GAA meant that the design rules is totally different and there is no / not enough automated tools to transform the design from FETs to GAA, front side to back side power delivery. 5) Even the richest company on earth i.e. Apple will not throw away it's design and quickly move to N3E instead, they rather force TSMC to give them a good price. 6) Other ASIC company and GPU Company are not going to invest in Intel 18A yet because this meant they will have take the gamble as the first mover, meaning now, arrow lake is not taken most of the R&D cost for GAA and PowerVIA, they can look at what Intel/Synopsys done and have better understanding to develop GAA PowerVIA design. 7) Arrow Lake is using 20A/18A which should be better than anything TSMC N3 class offered. That is what Pat is saying Unquestionable Leadership of course Wei will say N3P > 18A. 8) Lunar Lake (the version you mentioned might be done by TSMC) is a low power design basically a Meteor Lake Refresh. Arrow Lake market time is ahead of Lunar Lake.
So to answer your question, it is perfectly understandable that ASIC designer do not become the 1st mover to the tech i.e. Risk and Reward. Once the Design tools from Synopsis is more capable to design GAA and PowerVIA, the conversion cost become lower, then ASIC designer will jump the ship in 2025 and TSMC is a stock that goes to free fall. The headline will be "TSMC share trade down by 50% over a month as Apple leave TSMC and go for Intel"
For Lunar Lake is going to be the new Intel Atom, and I also think that Lunar Lake will be Intel proposal to Valve for Steam Deck 3 if this didn't pull off it will be design and sell to MSI as Steam Deck 3 competitor.
N3B and N3E is already on the market, of course Intel 20A/18A should be better, coming so much later to market. Apple don't need to nickel & dime it, they have high volume, good margins, they go for the most efficient chip and they design a new one every year, a redesign would be a complete waste. The last 10 years, TSMC has consistently delivered while Intel has floundered continuously, you'd be a real nutcase if you put all your eggs in an Intel basket of future promises. We all know how it went the last time Intel went all in and put massive changes from one node to another. Considering the power they need to equal AMD performance on current processes they have a lot to prove before I'd put any trust into their projections and promises.
Samsung is too far behind it seems, trying to leapfrog a bit but they've had terrible yields and power performance on their last three nodes so I'm not holding my breath.
TSMC is a better at delivering on its promises, so I take any future Intel roadmap with a grain of salt.
Meteor Lake is another good example of how Intel just can't deliver. The part that shows the least improvement compared to previous CPUs is the Intel 4 part, the compute die. The graphics (much improved) and SoC (with the low power cores) are both TSMC, and on processes which on paper are larger (5,6 vs. 4).
But TSMC road map better show up as well, please take a grain of salt.
Meteor Lake is a good example that Intel DELIVERED, Meteor Lake is the first chiplet approach, performance is going to be loss
AMD Zen 4 70.51mm2 Vs 69.67mm2 as these achieved similar but lower performance, as the first step of the Chiplet, it did not look good but it is okay. Be very honest i.e. Intel 4 and TSMC 5 is totally comparable considered that Intel 4 is high performance library only but TSMC 5 which Zen 4 is use can take advantage of High Density Library for Cache of the CPU tile/chiplet.
Intel 3 will be the first full node, so the size of Cache will be decreased.
I think Intel is going to the right direction while TSMC is going to the wrong direction, the net impact is that if Apple, AMD, nVidia and others do not shift to Intel Foundry in 2025, they will start losing their edge and with the High NA situation of TSMC, it is unlikely the performance edge of Intel will be level before 2030 and this is 5 years of edge which in IT sound more like 20 years.
And do bring AMD into the picture, this comment is based on TSMC Vs Intel, it had nothing to do with AMD, for the reasoning, I am assuming (I know nothing is the same) that an AMD Vs Intel designer using the same node will have similar performance.
I am just saying because Intel 4 is a little smaller and little slower then AMD Zen4 on TSMC 5 that meant that Intel 4. I didn't take a full look I just on the news looking at the article IPC uplifit.
So AMD also facing the same problem where Apple, nVidia, Qualcomm needed to face, do you want to move to IFS in 2025 i.e., production of 2026-2027 product.
At this moment, Intel 20A sounds to be on track for 2024 Q2 Risk production, all we understood is that 20A and 18A is very similar but it is the full library of 20A, will Intel making chip for AMD, there is no love here especially in IT. That is why even Apple buy Intel 5G business Qualcomm still sell apple it's 5G modem.
There is no love in IT, why Apple, AMD, nVidia needed to stay with TSMC especially AMD where direct competition with intel on X86 where node advantage will be shown.
Neither Apple, Nvidia or AMD will even consider moving to Intel until Intel actually delivers on a new node and Intel 4 is not a showcase. If Intel delivers on 20A/18A and it's significantly better than what TSMC can offer at the time, that's when they would start looking at putting a smaller chip at Intel Foundry. If they release a plan earlier then it's time to unload those stock because it would be a sign that there has been a change in management and who knows what poor decisions they will make after that.
I don't know how people here are on Taiwanese geography, but I think it's vaguely interesting that the two fabs are right at the north and south ends of the island and the third fab is planned to be half way down - I thought of TSMC as very concentrated in Hsinchu Science Park but it is clearly spreading out. They're all three on the west coast because that's the side of the island that's flat and where all the cities are.
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Threska - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
Build on a boat, so if things hit the fan, they can just float away from the mess.twtech - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
Or, China could steal the boat and tow it back to the mainland.drwho9437 - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
TSMCs fabs are nearly worthless to China. The day they invade the service contracts are toast. Without service all the tools will be dead within a month maybe two.Well they will just copy them I hear you say. If it were that easy they would have their on ALDs, EUV steppers and more. They don't because it isn't easy.
The damage an invasion would do to the world economy would be very great, but the world is now building capacity elsewhere. People forget Korea quite a lot. Micron, Intel and GF matter quite a lot too. But yes the world will be in trouble without UMC and TSMC; but then so much manufacturing of so many things is done in China I'm not sure chips would be the first things on people's lips. It would be pharmaceutical precursors probably. Nitrile rubber. Remember masks?
Anyway you can't really steal and take over a foundary unless everyone agreeing to keep it alive stays on board and given it is mostly Japanese, EU and US firms that isn't going happen.
Papaspud - Wednesday, January 24, 2024 - link
Correct- those production lines have to to run perfectly, or they are done. They had that tiny voltage fluctuation a year or 2 ago and it wiped out a months worth of chips. Now imagine how long if ever it would take to get them running after a "war"..sharath.naik - Saturday, January 20, 2024 - link
It does not matter as, TSMC is only the manufacturer. The tool used to manufacture is still built in EU. So, if things hit the fan, then China will have the existing machines, but only until it breaks down.Piotrek54321 - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
The bleeding edge will remain in Taiwan, as it ensures its independence. If not for the semiconductor industry, I believe China could've already invaded.StevoLincolnite - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
Just imagine how much of a mess the market would become if China did disrupt Taiwans chip manufacturing.Would make the COVID+Crypto craze seem like childs play.
Threska - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
China has a "water" problem.https://youtu.be/oupSYGUL0dE
sharath.naik - Saturday, January 20, 2024 - link
No, it's happening within 10 years. At least that is the plan, given that China pulled bizarre shenanigans to stir trouble on Indian border to use it as an excuse to break agreements and build troops on the border. There is only one reason that makes sense, they need troops on that border (guarding the flank) when they launch their action on Taiwan with most of their troops.PeachNCream - Sunday, January 21, 2024 - link
To be fair, it is a breakaway province of China populated by people that have differing opinions about the structure of governance. I hope that those differences can be resolved through diplomacy, but in the end, as long as the collective West keeps tampering in internal Chinese affairs for their own profit and gain, the situation will remain a possible flashpoint for dangerous military escalation. If the US were to reconsider its involvement and show mutual respect for other nations, none of this would be a problem and I would think both the US and China could operate as allies instead of antagonists. That decision to act as a responsible, mature nation resides with US policymakers and elected officials and we all know how that goes when US voters are left to their own devices to select those policy-setting people. It's just as bad as the SUVs they drive and all of the waste they engage in while living selfishly and thoughtlessly.Ptosio - Monday, January 22, 2024 - link
If you put it that way, the Communist China is a breakaway province of the Republic of China rather than the other way around.But it doesn't want to conquer the mainland and force their ways onto it, while Beijing does, so it's quite clear who's the aggressor here.
TSMC management is in a bit of impossible dilemma, because to ensure the survival of their company they threaten the survival of their nation.
PeachNCream - Monday, January 22, 2024 - link
That's fair to assert. The United States is still the rightful property of the United Kingdom in your reasoning. However, we know that in US thinking, might makes right which is why mainland China really should be left alone to assert it's territorial claim over its wayward people.I haven't any idea why TSMC hasn't put more fabs in more places outside Taiwan though.
King1st - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
5 RMB has been added to your weabo account. You have done a service for your country. The CCP are the clear aggressors, It is their unwillingness to participate in the global economy fairly coming to bite them. Their growth was entirely because the US allowed them to trade while not being a proper capitalist, and now those times are ending since they refuse to participate fairly despite being the 2nd largest economy. The communist were dirty pigs in WW2 and Mao and his consequences have been a disaster for china and her people.PeachNCream - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
I'm not even sure where to start with this. TSMC is more the matter here rather than what you are presenting as a pretty angry, revisionist perspective of history. If the western nations and Taiwan were willing to work together with China and not worry so much about what the internal governmental structure looks like elsewhere, there could be more free trade and lower costs for goods and services. China, for example, already makes some of the least expensive automobiles and has for quite some time, but western nations have prevented imports with a variety of legal and trade barriers to allow inferior locally made, fuel-inefficient vehicles to remain on their roads because of nothing more than fear of competition which, by they way, is rather oppositional to the idea of a free market.SarahKerrigan - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
Taiwan has literally never been held by the PRC in the PRC's entire history as a state. Its government predates the PRC's existence by 37 years.PeachNCream - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
That's not really relevant to the discussion. The people split away from the mainland and rather than be objectionable, leaning on other meddling nations motivated by greed for support, they could simply work mutually with the mainland to build synergies. People do better, greater things when they work together.SarahKerrigan - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
The mainland rebelled against them - not the other way around.Sounds like the mainland's problem.
PeachNCream - Thursday, January 25, 2024 - link
Agreed so much! It is a China matter to be resolved by the Chinese people. I wish others in the English-speaking world had a similar perspective and would leave them to settle that matter the way they believe would be best for their people. Outside interference just demonstrates the greed and self-centered thinking that prevails among Europe and the US.Blastdoor - Thursday, March 14, 2024 - link
The only "Chinese people" in a position to resolve anything are those living in democratic Taiwan, and they have chosen not to be a part of the PRC. The only "Chinese people" in the PRC who have any power to resolve anything are the autocrats at the top of the communist party.So yet another disingenuous BS post from you.
ABR - Friday, February 2, 2024 - link
Right, and the US is a breakaway province of the United Kingdom as well, I suppose the Royal Navy should be teeing up?Blastdoor - Thursday, March 14, 2024 - link
There is nothing at all "fair" in your post, instead there's a ton of false equivalence and disingenuousness. "Differing opinions about the structure of governance" sounds so benign, but this "difference in opinion" is that the Taiwanese want a democracy while autocrats running the PRC want to also be autocrats running Taiwan. You might as well say that slaves and slaveholders have a "differing opinions about the nature of property rights" or that nazis and jews have "differing opinions about issues involving biology and genetics."The best American analogy that I can think of to the Taiwan situation is Puerto Rico. If the PRC handled Taiwan in the same way that the US handles Puerto Rico (which is essentially indifference -- if PR wants to leave fine, if they want to be a state fine, if they want to continue as a territory fine), there would be no problem. But PRC is terrified of their people getting crazy democratic ideas in their heads, and Taiwan is an example of Chinese people living in a relatively free and open democratic society. That example terrifies PRC leadership and they want that example eradicated.
The whole "US show respect to other nations" thing is BS. You mean, show respect to the *leaders" of other nations, specifically the leader of China, not respect to the nation itself. And the respect you demand, oh PRC mouthpiece that you clearly are (because the talking points are so clearly aligned with PRC propaganda), is not reciprocated. China shows no respect to Japan or India. The US treats China with kid gloves compared to how China treats Japan.
my_wing - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
Don't hide TSMC management stupidity anandtechhttps://finance.technews.tw/2023/10/19/tsmc-qa/
"Having said that, our internal assessments show that our N3P, now I repeat again, N3P technology demonstrated (a) comparable PPA to 18A, my competitors’ technology. But with an earlier time to market, better technology maturity and much better cost."
Mark Liu and CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swan @ Intel
Please do make this stupidity go away unnoticed, report it as it is, Backside Power Delivery is bring noticeable advantage in density and power efficiency. How can N3P compete with Intel 18A.
A 2NM fab without EUV High NA so what is this different to Intel Ireland Fab 34? TSMC is no longer the bleeding edge, it should be call leading edge.
drwho9437 - Friday, January 19, 2024 - link
Intel is most likely going to be on par and have backside power first.I get quite annoyed with writeups that bracket the relabeled Intel 4 nodes as (formerly 7 nm). These lengths are fantasies. Intel 4 is about TSMC 4 in density and other metrics. The relabeling is basically fair though no two nodes is exactly the same.
Who will deliver good GAA devices in volume first is really the next milestone. Samsung already has limited volume of them, I believe I read yields are rather bad. The other milestone is backside power. Intel's coming nodes have them both. High-NA EUV should improve yield on 18 A even if they don't start with it.
I don't think ASIC designers are dumb, if Intel 20A and 18A are good I expect a ton of AI ASICs on it. Qualcom seems an obvious user as do Amazon, and Microsoft. Tesla? the RISC V companies? Nvidia, Apple and AMD are trickier given their long relationships with TSMC. If we don't see some of the first list taping out major chips on Intel 20A/18A and instead going for TSMC 3 nodes we will know. We will also know by Lunar Lake or the chip that follows it (I know one Lunar Lake version will be done on TSMC node), but Intel's own choices will show the what 18A and 20A are best for.
my_wing - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
I don't think ASIC designer are dumb as well, we all understanding and I am talking about fact, if you do agree with the following fact then the whole argument I put here I will admit I am wrong.1) TSMC N3B and TSMC N3E have a different with different design rules and we needed a redesign to move from N3B to N3E.
2) TSMC N3E is not as good in density but it much cheaper to made.
3) Apple N3B processors did not move to N3E at this moment, as even Apple will not redesign it.
4) Intel 20A/18A with Backside Power Delivery and GAA meant that the design rules is totally different and there is no / not enough automated tools to transform the design from FETs to GAA, front side to back side power delivery.
5) Even the richest company on earth i.e. Apple will not throw away it's design and quickly move to N3E instead, they rather force TSMC to give them a good price.
6) Other ASIC company and GPU Company are not going to invest in Intel 18A yet because this meant they will have take the gamble as the first mover, meaning now, arrow lake is not taken most of the R&D cost for GAA and PowerVIA, they can look at what Intel/Synopsys done and have better understanding to develop GAA PowerVIA design.
7) Arrow Lake is using 20A/18A which should be better than anything TSMC N3 class offered. That is what Pat is saying Unquestionable Leadership of course Wei will say N3P > 18A.
8) Lunar Lake (the version you mentioned might be done by TSMC) is a low power design basically a Meteor Lake Refresh. Arrow Lake market time is ahead of Lunar Lake.
So to answer your question, it is perfectly understandable that ASIC designer do not become the 1st mover to the tech i.e. Risk and Reward. Once the Design tools from Synopsis is more capable to design GAA and PowerVIA, the conversion cost become lower, then ASIC designer will jump the ship in 2025 and TSMC is a stock that goes to free fall. The headline will be "TSMC share trade down by 50% over a month as Apple leave TSMC and go for Intel"
For Lunar Lake is going to be the new Intel Atom, and I also think that Lunar Lake will be Intel proposal to Valve for Steam Deck 3 if this didn't pull off it will be design and sell to MSI as Steam Deck 3 competitor.
Zoolook - Saturday, January 27, 2024 - link
N3B and N3E is already on the market, of course Intel 20A/18A should be better, coming so much later to market. Apple don't need to nickel & dime it, they have high volume, good margins, they go for the most efficient chip and they design a new one every year, a redesign would be a complete waste.The last 10 years, TSMC has consistently delivered while Intel has floundered continuously, you'd be a real nutcase if you put all your eggs in an Intel basket of future promises.
We all know how it went the last time Intel went all in and put massive changes from one node to another.
Considering the power they need to equal AMD performance on current processes they have a lot to prove before I'd put any trust into their projections and promises.
Samsung is too far behind it seems, trying to leapfrog a bit but they've had terrible yields and power performance on their last three nodes so I'm not holding my breath.
nandnandnand - Saturday, January 20, 2024 - link
Maybe TSMC is being too cocky, or maybe Intel will screw it up again like they did with "10nm".Dante Verizon - Sunday, January 21, 2024 - link
2024, people are still putting faith in the empty promises of intel.my_wing - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
Never Bet against the USATerry_Craig - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
Playing against the US = wasting money on a failed company like intel.ET - Monday, January 22, 2024 - link
TSMC is a better at delivering on its promises, so I take any future Intel roadmap with a grain of salt.Meteor Lake is another good example of how Intel just can't deliver. The part that shows the least improvement compared to previous CPUs is the Intel 4 part, the compute die. The graphics (much improved) and SoC (with the low power cores) are both TSMC, and on processes which on paper are larger (5,6 vs. 4).
my_wing - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
You can think what you think.But TSMC road map better show up as well, please take a grain of salt.
Meteor Lake is a good example that Intel DELIVERED, Meteor Lake is the first chiplet approach, performance is going to be loss
AMD Zen 4 70.51mm2 Vs 69.67mm2 as these achieved similar but lower performance, as the first step of the Chiplet, it did not look good but it is okay. Be very honest i.e. Intel 4 and TSMC 5 is totally comparable considered that Intel 4 is high performance library only but TSMC 5 which Zen 4 is use can take advantage of High Density Library for Cache of the CPU tile/chiplet.
Intel 3 will be the first full node, so the size of Cache will be decreased.
I think Intel is going to the right direction while TSMC is going to the wrong direction, the net impact is that if Apple, AMD, nVidia and others do not shift to Intel Foundry in 2025, they will start losing their edge and with the High NA situation of TSMC, it is unlikely the performance edge of Intel will be level before 2030 and this is 5 years of edge which in IT sound more like 20 years.
https://wccftech.com/intel-core-ultra-meteor-lake-...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41VLZ2jybUo
SanX - Thursday, January 25, 2024 - link
my_wing, looks like Intel is flying just on you one single wing unfortunately, look at that huge gap:https://www.phoronix.com/review/amd-epyc-9684x-ben...
my_wing - Friday, January 26, 2024 - link
You are using something that is in June/July Sapphire Rapid and make your point look good.First Sapphire Rapid is something that is started in the Bob Swan already.
It seems to be more complex to fix then it should, it take 2 years already but ....
I think in n years ago, Xeon is not always the first release of an architecture, desktop is.
If Intel can get sierra forest out before June 2024 and see what Granite Rapid will do, then talk to me again.
my_wing - Friday, January 26, 2024 - link
And do bring AMD into the picture, this comment is based on TSMC Vs Intel, it had nothing to do with AMD, for the reasoning, I am assuming (I know nothing is the same) that an AMD Vs Intel designer using the same node will have similar performance.I am just saying because Intel 4 is a little smaller and little slower then AMD Zen4 on TSMC 5 that meant that Intel 4. I didn't take a full look I just on the news looking at the article IPC uplifit.
So AMD also facing the same problem where Apple, nVidia, Qualcomm needed to face, do you want to move to IFS in 2025 i.e., production of 2026-2027 product.
At this moment, Intel 20A sounds to be on track for 2024 Q2 Risk production, all we understood is that 20A and 18A is very similar but it is the full library of 20A, will Intel making chip for AMD, there is no love here especially in IT. That is why even Apple buy Intel 5G business Qualcomm still sell apple it's 5G modem.
There is no love in IT, why Apple, AMD, nVidia needed to stay with TSMC especially AMD where direct competition with intel on X86 where node advantage will be shown.
Zoolook - Saturday, January 27, 2024 - link
Neither Apple, Nvidia or AMD will even consider moving to Intel until Intel actually delivers on a new node and Intel 4 is not a showcase. If Intel delivers on 20A/18A and it's significantly better than what TSMC can offer at the time, that's when they would start looking at putting a smaller chip at Intel Foundry.If they release a plan earlier then it's time to unload those stock because it would be a sign that there has been a change in management and who knows what poor decisions they will make after that.
TomWomack - Saturday, January 20, 2024 - link
I don't know how people here are on Taiwanese geography, but I think it's vaguely interesting that the two fabs are right at the north and south ends of the island and the third fab is planned to be half way down - I thought of TSMC as very concentrated in Hsinchu Science Park but it is clearly spreading out. They're all three on the west coast because that's the side of the island that's flat and where all the cities are.Dante Verizon - Sunday, January 21, 2024 - link
Hail TSMC.my_wing - Tuesday, January 23, 2024 - link
Hell TSMC