The foundry size increase will help Samsung's endeavor of dethroning TSMC, but I don't think Samsung has the technical expertise at making high performance silicon. I think Samsung would need to achieve a technological breakthrough, because AMD, nVidia, and Apple are all sticking to TSMC for their high performance processors. If that's not enough evidence of how well Samsung fabricated chips perform.
Samsung just announced first GAAFET based 3nm last year with a plan to quadruple their capacity by 2026 -- what other technological breakthrough are you talking about?
You are aware that samsung process nodes are behind the performance curve, right? For example, Samsung 8nm used in RTX 3000 series were cheap to produce, but the only reason 3000 series lead in performance was because AMD didn't have anything to compete with.
Their current 3nm GAAFET process is only used by Samsung themselves, and some ASIC miner chips. No one is ordering them. And you want me to believe this is a breakthrough product? If it was, Apple and nVidia would be all over it.
I don't think that is a good example of samsung's node being behind the performance curve. Samsung 8nm is just an older optimized 10nm node, yes they were behind tsmc which released it's 7nm a year earlier, but at the time the 3000 series entered production, they could have also opted for the samsung 7nm node.
This spending is a drop in the bucket. TSMC is spending $100 billion in just the next three years, and 100% of that is on logic fabs. Samsung's $230 billion over 20 years is on both logic and DRAM/NAND - and it is safe to assume the latter is getting the bulk of that spending.
So it seems likely TSMC in three years will spend more on logic fabs than Samsung will spend in twenty. If anything TSMC is going to pull further ahead if Samsung spends so little!
Samsung's capex in 2021 was ~$35B vs $30B for TSMC. And pretty much every chipmaker, including TSMC, announced major cuts in production or capex, except Samsung.
My understanding is that Samsung, after announcing $18B plant in Taylor, Texas last year, entertained investing further $120+B in the US, but now it looks like they are all going to South Korea.
30 years is a big prediction time frame. So samsung is probably just trying to get itself in the lime light again. While it's nodes falter and internal strife tear it apart.
never hurts to read the headline in entirety: "... $230B investment over 20 years."
It's a sign that South Koreans are not buying into Biden's CHIPS ACT which now requires (excess) profit-sharing, trade-secret disclosure, and many other onerous terms.
Well, yeah, South Korea is a hyper capitalist country. Why would you offshore to a more expensive country to operate in when you already have skilled and cheap labor at home? There are proper reasons for building fabs outside of your home nation. - Trying not to get import banned for performing too good, without a local factory. (Hello automotive industry) - Separating out eggs out from a single basket. (Disaster management, and Hello supply chain disruptions from COVID) - An offer you can't refuse (sweetheart deal)
The CHIPS act very much a sweetheart deal for corporations, and there are minimal barriers in place. Like I am honestly surprised you think it doesn't go far enough.
I can think a few reasons why Samsung might want to invest in the US: #1, wages: South Korea's wage isn't necessarily cheap #2, geopolitical risk : North Korea and/or China #3, bad neighbor/supply-chain: Japan's export sanction on chemicals used in EUVs over a recent court decision against Japan's WW2 war crimes.
Also, Samsung's $15B Austin fab has been around at least 2005 where Apple's A chips were once made.
>> The CHIPS act very much a sweetheart deal for corporations, and there are minimal barriers in place. <<
Biden's CHIPS Act has plenty of poison pills for foreign investors -- in addition to requiring all applications to open their book/trade-secret, and limiting their profit, it also dictates how Samsung's oversea chip making operation must operate to qualify for the subsidy, namely in China.
South Korea's government is giving away a lot of money, that's why Samsung is investing in South Korea. Has nothing to do with "onerous terms" in the US. If that was an issue they wouldn't be taking some of that money for fab buildout in Texas.
South Korea's government doesn't want its fabs to the US so they will make sure Samsung and SK Hynix are getting enough support that the bulk of their manufacturing stays at home.
> US presidents are not dictators. They're sideshows designed to distract people.
They run the federal government, which is the bureaucracy established by Congress. They're also, the Commander In Chief of the US armed forces.
What this means is that they can dictate certain things about what the federal government prioritizes and how they interpret laws governing their conduct. They also nominate or appoint the heads of government agencies (top posts require Congressional confirmation, but not lower-level ones).
Beyond that, as head of the State department, they're at the top of international relations.
Finally, they can veto bills passed by congress. Because of this, they have some negotiating power, when it comes to what bills will look like that won't pass with a veto-proof majority.
Oh, and they can pardon people for federal crimes.
The reason US Presidents have so much power is largely because we had the mixed blessings of George Washington being the first. Had it been someone less trustworthy and admired, perhaps there would've been more checks on their power.
I don't know the details of what you're referring to, but the PotUS has command authority over the armed forces, as does the Secretary of Defense, who works for him.
If he were truly wishing to force an issue, he could fire anyone who disagrees with him. If he didn't, maybe it was because he deemed that escalating the issue wasn't worth the political cost, or the pragmatic inconvenience or trouble of having to get a replacement confirmed by the Senate (assuming it was a post requiring confirmation).
the limiting factor here is ASML. they can only make so many of these devil energy magical platforms (joke) so either ASML builds some new manufacturing plants to keep up with demand or other is going to be a massive bidding war coming up for machines sounds like a good time for a new company to come online and take some market share... cough cough Nikkon
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meacupla - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
The foundry size increase will help Samsung's endeavor of dethroning TSMC, but I don't think Samsung has the technical expertise at making high performance silicon.I think Samsung would need to achieve a technological breakthrough, because AMD, nVidia, and Apple are all sticking to TSMC for their high performance processors. If that's not enough evidence of how well Samsung fabricated chips perform.
tooltalk - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
Samsung just announced first GAAFET based 3nm last year with a plan to quadruple their capacity by 2026 -- what other technological breakthrough are you talking about?meacupla - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
You are aware that samsung process nodes are behind the performance curve, right?For example, Samsung 8nm used in RTX 3000 series were cheap to produce, but the only reason 3000 series lead in performance was because AMD didn't have anything to compete with.
Their current 3nm GAAFET process is only used by Samsung themselves, and some ASIC miner chips. No one is ordering them.
And you want me to believe this is a breakthrough product?
If it was, Apple and nVidia would be all over it.
tooltalk - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
You mean how nVidia is all over TSMC's overpriced 3nm?qlum - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
I don't think that is a good example of samsung's node being behind the performance curve. Samsung 8nm is just an older optimized 10nm node, yes they were behind tsmc which released it's 7nm a year earlier, but at the time the 3000 series entered production, they could have also opted for the samsung 7nm node.Doug_S - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
This spending is a drop in the bucket. TSMC is spending $100 billion in just the next three years, and 100% of that is on logic fabs. Samsung's $230 billion over 20 years is on both logic and DRAM/NAND - and it is safe to assume the latter is getting the bulk of that spending.So it seems likely TSMC in three years will spend more on logic fabs than Samsung will spend in twenty. If anything TSMC is going to pull further ahead if Samsung spends so little!
tooltalk - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
Samsung's capex in 2021 was ~$35B vs $30B for TSMC. And pretty much every chipmaker, including TSMC, announced major cuts in production or capex, except Samsung.My understanding is that Samsung, after announcing $18B plant in Taylor, Texas last year, entertained investing further $120+B in the US, but now it looks like they are all going to South Korea.
ballsystemlord - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
30 years is a big prediction time frame. So samsung is probably just trying to get itself in the lime light again. While it's nodes falter and internal strife tear it apart.ballsystemlord - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
Edit: 20 years.(Next time don't read the comments where they talk about 30 things before posting.)
tooltalk - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
never hurts to read the headline in entirety: "... $230B investment over 20 years."It's a sign that South Koreans are not buying into Biden's CHIPS ACT which now requires (excess) profit-sharing, trade-secret disclosure, and many other onerous terms.
Threska - Wednesday, March 15, 2023 - link
Hmmm, sounds very familiar.TeXWiller - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
To be fair, they did already commit to a $17B foundry in Texas before the CHIPS Act was enacted.meacupla - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
Well, yeah, South Korea is a hyper capitalist country. Why would you offshore to a more expensive country to operate in when you already have skilled and cheap labor at home?There are proper reasons for building fabs outside of your home nation.
- Trying not to get import banned for performing too good, without a local factory. (Hello automotive industry)
- Separating out eggs out from a single basket. (Disaster management, and Hello supply chain disruptions from COVID)
- An offer you can't refuse (sweetheart deal)
The CHIPS act very much a sweetheart deal for corporations, and there are minimal barriers in place. Like I am honestly surprised you think it doesn't go far enough.
tooltalk - Friday, March 17, 2023 - link
I can think a few reasons why Samsung might want to invest in the US:#1, wages: South Korea's wage isn't necessarily cheap
#2, geopolitical risk : North Korea and/or China
#3, bad neighbor/supply-chain: Japan's export sanction on chemicals used in EUVs over a recent court decision against Japan's WW2 war crimes.
Also, Samsung's $15B Austin fab has been around at least 2005 where Apple's A chips were once made.
>> The CHIPS act very much a sweetheart deal for corporations, and there are minimal barriers in place. <<
Biden's CHIPS Act has plenty of poison pills for foreign investors -- in addition to requiring all applications to open their book/trade-secret, and limiting their profit, it also dictates how Samsung's oversea chip making operation must operate to qualify for the subsidy, namely in China.
Oxford Guy - Friday, March 24, 2023 - link
The US government (with presidents like Biden as figureheads) doesn't want to further subsidize China's chip-making odyssey?Doug_S - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
South Korea's government is giving away a lot of money, that's why Samsung is investing in South Korea. Has nothing to do with "onerous terms" in the US. If that was an issue they wouldn't be taking some of that money for fab buildout in Texas.South Korea's government doesn't want its fabs to the US so they will make sure Samsung and SK Hynix are getting enough support that the bulk of their manufacturing stays at home.
tooltalk - Sunday, March 19, 2023 - link
Biden's IRA is a disaster -- too many nannies. Samsung's decision to build in TX came before the IRA was finalized.Samsung and South Korea is not Taiwan -- they don't believe in building everything in just their country. Samsung is fairly well diversified.
Oxford Guy - Friday, March 24, 2023 - link
'Biden.'You don't seem to understand how politics actually works. US presidents are not dictators. They're sideshows designed to distract people.
mode_13h - Monday, March 27, 2023 - link
> US presidents are not dictators. They're sideshows designed to distract people.They run the federal government, which is the bureaucracy established by Congress. They're also, the Commander In Chief of the US armed forces.
What this means is that they can dictate certain things about what the federal government prioritizes and how they interpret laws governing their conduct. They also nominate or appoint the heads of government agencies (top posts require Congressional confirmation, but not lower-level ones).
Beyond that, as head of the State department, they're at the top of international relations.
Finally, they can veto bills passed by congress. Because of this, they have some negotiating power, when it comes to what bills will look like that won't pass with a veto-proof majority.
Oh, and they can pardon people for federal crimes.
The reason US Presidents have so much power is largely because we had the mixed blessings of George Washington being the first. Had it been someone less trustworthy and admired, perhaps there would've been more checks on their power.
Oxford Guy - Monday, March 27, 2023 - link
'They're also, the Commander In Chief of the US armed forces.'Go back and watch Colin Powell vs. Bill Clinton on gays in the military and get back to me on that.
mode_13h - Tuesday, March 28, 2023 - link
I don't know the details of what you're referring to, but the PotUS has command authority over the armed forces, as does the Secretary of Defense, who works for him.If he were truly wishing to force an issue, he could fire anyone who disagrees with him. If he didn't, maybe it was because he deemed that escalating the issue wasn't worth the political cost, or the pragmatic inconvenience or trouble of having to get a replacement confirmed by the Senate (assuming it was a post requiring confirmation).
nunya112 - Thursday, March 16, 2023 - link
the limiting factor here is ASML. they can only make so many of these devil energy magical platforms (joke)so either ASML builds some new manufacturing plants to keep up with demand or other is going to be a massive bidding war coming up for machines
sounds like a good time for a new company to come online and take some market share... cough cough Nikkon