They were lucky that they could lean on their monopolistic approach with some vendors. Where I work we're forced to use Dell, and the offer for anything professional is only Intel. No threadripper. So we had to buy some Xeon that cost an arm and a leg and we know they are already outclassed. Their Gen12 is better for PCs and mobile; competitive, I'd say, but on high-perf stuff they're still behind AMD.
So Intel ARK has a suggested price of "$2057.00 - $2061.00" for the 40-core Xeon Max 9460.
That... is probably an error or placeholder. Otherwise that would be a ridiculously good deal for a workstation part, seeing how a 48-core EPYC 7643 is $5.3k.
Those numbers have been posted at several sites. Not saying they are 100% true but seems quiet a few have reviewed the information and posted it.
Performance/frequency does not look that good though for what they cost. Unless they meet a very specific design need for someone they look meh at best.
"Intel 4 is manufacturing-ready, with the Meteor Lake ramp expected in the second half of 2023" - so there won't be Raptor Lake Refresh, AMD must acclerate Zen 5 release
Intel 4 is doing just fine. What you shouldn’t worry about is the nodes, but the processor design teams. Back in the day if there was a problem with the silicon, rather than the design team fixing the issue, the foundry would just change the node to fix the problem. Intel isn’t doing that anymore. Also, Intel has TSMC wafer allocations in case foundry is underperforming. Meaning that any processor delays/cancellations in the future is due to design not pulling their weight. Meteor Lake also has the issue of being the first 2D processor from Intel that uses tiles. Packaging problems may or may not be a thing. We’ll have to see. I expect by 2024 Intel’s design teams would have their shit together because if they don’t the company is going down like 2015 AMD.
Brutal. Looks like Gelsinger didn’t know how to navigate the pandemic tech boom very well.
Nothing interesting to sustain sales? IIRC, Mac sales were up massively, up 25% last quarter YoY. Oh, well, that’s because Apple offered the market what it wanted (and it was decidedly not Intel).
Get it together, Chipzilla. Booms like these just pull forward future demand; they don’t create new demand.
"IIRC, Mac sales were up massively, up 25% last quarter YoY."
Looked it up. Their unit sales were 2% down YoY for Q4 2022. This is still significantly better than the rest of the market. Even Apple's own smartphone sales were down 14.9%. They're more resistant to general market trends, but not immune.
The drop in iPhone sales was mostly due to covid outbreaks in the assembly plant in China that caused closure for several weeks. There was probably some hit in China sales due to the lockdowns, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big YoY gain in China sales for Q2 with Chinese New Year and people happy the lockdowns are in the past.
You mean the drop in iphone production that was reported a week after it was reported that the non pro iphone 14 was selling like dog turds? How convenient for apple....
It STILL takes three weeks to get an iPhone Pro once you order it... The mismatch between demand (high) and supply (not as high) is not some "convenient" fantasy.
Things are equally cheery (14% increase) if we look at 2022 as a whole vs 2021 as a whole.
I'm not sure where you got unit sales from. Those are guesses rather than the audited sales numbers, and from quarter to quarter they tend to reflect what was released in that quarter (ie the quarter that releases new MBA's will have high unit sales, lower total sales; the quarter that releases Mac Studio will have higher total sales, lower unit sales).
Obsessing over unit sales rather than the overall pattern seems to me a way to try to avoid facing the truth.
I think most of the products that were in the market during the pandemic were roadmapped by the previous management. These next few releases will be where we really find out if Gelsinger was the right guy to turn them around.
FYI extending the depreciation schedule from 5 to 8 years has nothing to do with the useful life of the equipment becoming longer.
You extend the depreciation schedule if the business has low or negative profits in the near term so that you can use the tax deductions in later years when the business is making profits. You are wasting the deductions if you can only take them in the years when the business is losing money.
Accounting depreciation isn't always the same as tax depreciation, so it may well have no tax impact at all. Given ASML recently reported strong growth from 'field upgrades' I suspect fabs are keeping machinery longer through upgrades
Yup. It’s just accounting tricks to misleading pump up margins:
“ Rasgon was most agog at the company’s profit margin of 39.2% in the quarter, which he said would have been three points lower if Intel had not made an accounting change to extend the depreciation of certain machinery and equipment by three years.”
I don’t understand how it helped their current year margins. @The Von Matrices statement made sense if they are pushing that depreciation out to future years where they hopefully are profitable. The depreciation amount is the purchase price divided up over the schedule, so if the schedule extends this years write off is less.
If I have $1000 amortizing over 10 years, that’s $100 per year in costs. If it’s over 5 years the costs rise to $200. By depreciating over 8 years instead of 5 Intel’s costs this year will go down. Lower costs means higher margins. It’s purely an accounting trick though because Intel already spent the money to acquire the capital goods, and is just changing when they claim to have it paid for.
"Driving this drop has been roughly the same factors ..., the processor market as a whole has reached saturation, sending both client and server sales down."
"The official server schedule is for Emerald Rapids to launch in the second half of this year, delivering a modest update to Intel’s Rapids platform. "
Is this in fact true? Intel seem unable to get their story straight! NYT said yesterday https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/10/technology/inte... "She also determined that Intel had scheduled more products than its engineers and customers could easily handle. So she streamlined that product road map, including pushing back a successor to Sapphire Rapids to 2024 from 2023."
Normally I'm not one to argue with the Grey Lady, but in this case Intel was very explicit about it arriving in 2023. To quote Pat's prepared remarks:
"Our DCAI roadmap only improves from here. Emerald Rapids is sampling and has completed power-on with top OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and CSP customers, and it remains on track to launch in the second half of 2023."
Right now Intel is on a disastrous downhill slide that started years ago and shows no end in sight. Amazingly it's all self-inflicted pain as a result of mismanagement. Even Gelsinger doesn't have a magic wand.
The problem with Client computing is, people are dumber and overall lower IQ reasons are obv by the Think Tanks induced progression look into CFR and Davos, Bolderberg. So they buy more into disposable junk called - mobile phones, unfortunately the big think tanks decided that human race should buy into more disposable trash use and throw ARM phones over powerful x86 also worst part being Windows OS also took negative aspects of mobile and killing the Desktop Power User nature so do the gaming, the mobile gaming segment owns already 3/4th of 170Bn Annual market its going to get worse..., however the mobile buying, that is only a part. Since the whole muh Covid issues, the spike with higher client sales demand and overall massive consumption this will obv look like a massive hit. It is same for most companies which is why we see Amazon, Google, and a lot of Technology corporations axing the jobs to make the sheets look positive to those "Investors".
Shame how Intel killed off Optane, I can never forget it was the world's best Memory technology and top notch innovation in Technology. Intel also sold off 5G division for cheap to Apple probably insider dealings else it was a huge loss for Intel and a big win to that Apple. It's always the greedy Investors and the bean counters that run the show unfortunately. So we do get poor garbage products like TLC junk and chokepoint on sequential performance with horrid endurance.
Finally the Node. Well Intel 7 is very dense vs TSMC N7 but the problem is Intel was late by 3 years. Same for Intel 4, it is denser than TSMC 5N. All in all Intel first needs to redesign the CORE. That thing is old. They barely are keeping it alive with all that Hybrid nonsense E trash Cinebench accelerator cores and poor Base Clocks with sky high Boost Clocks and higher Temp and Power targets. Yea the IPC is solid on the new 13th Gen P core but it's limited by 8 big cores max. I hope Intel finds a proper successor to CORE and keeps x86 alive.
That thing needs a new slate. EMIB cannot magically let them scale over AMD's ZEN uArch, add AMD's MCM design scaling with IF and whole IODie aspect is working wonders, 96C beast on EPYC Genoa is a bloodbath for Intel only advantage being 8P Socket support for Intel and 2P only AMD.
Ever heard of the term “Royal Core” or “Ocean Cove”? Ocean Cove is a cancelled micro architecture designed by Jim Keller. It morphed into the Royal Core project wherein Jim Keller put together a system with a solid micro architecture that can be consistently improved upon like Zen. Royal Core architectures are expected to arrive in 2024, led by Lion Cove. Royal Core starts out with an IPC lead over Zen, and more aggressively raises IPC. Whether expectations are met are yet to be seen, but it’s certainly a good position to be in 2025 onwards.
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Marlin1975 - Thursday, January 26, 2023 - link
Yep and they even admit next quarter will be a blood bath as well.Their lack of begin able to keep up on nodes is catching up to them. They need to get the nodes back on track or it will get worse.
yankeeDDL - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
They were lucky that they could lean on their monopolistic approach with some vendors.Where I work we're forced to use Dell, and the offer for anything professional is only Intel. No threadripper. So we had to buy some Xeon that cost an arm and a leg and we know they are already outclassed. Their Gen12 is better for PCs and mobile; competitive, I'd say, but on high-perf stuff they're still behind AMD.
brucethemoose - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
Sapphire Rapids HBM could be interesting for workstations... if they sell it in reasonably priced workstations.brucethemoose - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
So Intel ARK has a suggested price of "$2057.00 - $2061.00" for the 40-core Xeon Max 9460.That... is probably an error or placeholder. Otherwise that would be a ridiculously good deal for a workstation part, seeing how a 48-core EPYC 7643 is $5.3k.
Marlin1975 - Monday, January 30, 2023 - link
Yes looks to be $8750 for that one...Xeon Platinum 9480 - 56 Core (1.9 / 2.6 GHz) - $12980 US
Xeon Platinum 9470 - 52 Core (2.0 / 2.7 GHz) - $11590 US
Xeon Platinum 9468 - 48 Core (2.1 / 2.6 GHz) - $9900 US
Xeon Platinum 9460 - 40 Core (2.2 / 2.7 GHz) - $8750 US
Xeon Platinum 9462 - 32 Core (2.7 / 3.1 GHz) - $7995 US
brucethemoose - Monday, January 30, 2023 - link
That price looks to be from a leakMarlin1975 - Tuesday, January 31, 2023 - link
Those numbers have been posted at several sites. Not saying they are 100% true but seems quiet a few have reviewed the information and posted it.Performance/frequency does not look that good though for what they cost. Unless they meet a very specific design need for someone they look meh at best.
usiname - Saturday, February 4, 2023 - link
This numbers are from Intel.comhttps://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/s...
TristanSDX - Thursday, January 26, 2023 - link
"Intel 4 is manufacturing-ready, with the Meteor Lake ramp expected in the second half of 2023" - so there won't be Raptor Lake Refresh, AMD must acclerate Zen 5 releaseishould - Thursday, January 26, 2023 - link
I'm on a "I'll believe it when I see it" mentality with Intel's nodes.Otritus - Friday, February 3, 2023 - link
Intel 4 is doing just fine. What you shouldn’t worry about is the nodes, but the processor design teams. Back in the day if there was a problem with the silicon, rather than the design team fixing the issue, the foundry would just change the node to fix the problem. Intel isn’t doing that anymore. Also, Intel has TSMC wafer allocations in case foundry is underperforming. Meaning that any processor delays/cancellations in the future is due to design not pulling their weight. Meteor Lake also has the issue of being the first 2D processor from Intel that uses tiles. Packaging problems may or may not be a thing. We’ll have to see. I expect by 2024 Intel’s design teams would have their shit together because if they don’t the company is going down like 2015 AMD.Kvaern1 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
The rumors say RPL refresh and mobile only Meteor Lake in 2023.ikjadoon - Thursday, January 26, 2023 - link
Brutal. Looks like Gelsinger didn’t know how to navigate the pandemic tech boom very well.Nothing interesting to sustain sales? IIRC, Mac sales were up massively, up 25% last quarter YoY. Oh, well, that’s because Apple offered the market what it wanted (and it was decidedly not Intel).
Get it together, Chipzilla. Booms like these just pull forward future demand; they don’t create new demand.
Alistair - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
if you could install windows on macs, intel would be in real troublename99 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
You can...https://machow2.com/parallels-review/
Pneumothorax - Sunday, January 29, 2023 - link
Sorry only Windows ARM on apple silicon isn’t going to cut it for the majority of users.PseudoKnight - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
"IIRC, Mac sales were up massively, up 25% last quarter YoY."Looked it up. Their unit sales were 2% down YoY for Q4 2022. This is still significantly better than the rest of the market. Even Apple's own smartphone sales were down 14.9%. They're more resistant to general market trends, but not immune.
Doug_S - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
The drop in iPhone sales was mostly due to covid outbreaks in the assembly plant in China that caused closure for several weeks. There was probably some hit in China sales due to the lockdowns, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big YoY gain in China sales for Q2 with Chinese New Year and people happy the lockdowns are in the past.TheinsanegamerN - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
You mean the drop in iphone production that was reported a week after it was reported that the non pro iphone 14 was selling like dog turds? How convenient for apple....name99 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
It STILL takes three weeks to get an iPhone Pro once you order it...The mismatch between demand (high) and supply (not as high) is not some "convenient" fantasy.
https://www.phonearena.com/news/iphone-14-shipping...
name99 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
I don't know what you looked up.https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/FY22_Q4_Consol...
says that Mac sales were
$9,178M for 2021Q4 and
$11,508 for 2022Q4
that's 1.25x...
Things are equally cheery (14% increase) if we look at 2022 as a whole vs 2021 as a whole.
I'm not sure where you got unit sales from. Those are guesses rather than the audited sales numbers, and from quarter to quarter they tend to reflect what was released in that quarter (ie the quarter that releases new MBA's will have high unit sales, lower total sales; the quarter that releases Mac Studio will have higher total sales, lower unit sales).
Obsessing over unit sales rather than the overall pattern seems to me a way to try to avoid facing the truth.
ikjadoon - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
Apple doesn’t report unit sales anymore. Macs had an amazing Q4 2022 by revenue:Mac revenue: $11.51 billion, up 25.39% year-over-year
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/apple-aapl-earning...
They aren’t immune from everything, but they are wholly immune from Wintel & AMD.
Wrs - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
Apple have not reported for calendar q4 2022. They will in a few days, calling it fiscal q1 2023.flgt - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
I think most of the products that were in the market during the pandemic were roadmapped by the previous management. These next few releases will be where we really find out if Gelsinger was the right guy to turn them around.The Von Matrices - Thursday, January 26, 2023 - link
FYI extending the depreciation schedule from 5 to 8 years has nothing to do with the useful life of the equipment becoming longer.You extend the depreciation schedule if the business has low or negative profits in the near term so that you can use the tax deductions in later years when the business is making profits. You are wasting the deductions if you can only take them in the years when the business is losing money.
michael2k - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
But isn’t that the same as keeping a capital asset in service longer?Speedfriend - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
Accounting depreciation isn't always the same as tax depreciation, so it may well have no tax impact at all. Given ASML recently reported strong growth from 'field upgrades' I suspect fabs are keeping machinery longer through upgradesikjadoon - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
Yup. It’s just accounting tricks to misleading pump up margins:“ Rasgon was most agog at the company’s profit margin of 39.2% in the quarter, which he said would have been three points lower if Intel had not made an accounting change to extend the depreciation of certain machinery and equipment by three years.”
flgt - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
I don’t understand how it helped their current year margins. @The Von Matrices statement made sense if they are pushing that depreciation out to future years where they hopefully are profitable. The depreciation amount is the purchase price divided up over the schedule, so if the schedule extends this years write off is less.Otritus - Friday, February 3, 2023 - link
If I have $1000 amortizing over 10 years, that’s $100 per year in costs. If it’s over 5 years the costs rise to $200. By depreciating over 8 years instead of 5 Intel’s costs this year will go down. Lower costs means higher margins. It’s purely an accounting trick though because Intel already spent the money to acquire the capital goods, and is just changing when they claim to have it paid for.name99 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
"Driving this drop has been roughly the same factors ..., the processor market as a whole has reached saturation, sending both client and server sales down."Can't solve the problem if you refuse to even admit there IS a problem...
Remember they were saying this ↓ in public one week ago!
https://www.semianalysis.com/p/intel-roadmap-and-p...
name99 - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
"The official server schedule is for Emerald Rapids to launch in the second half of this year, delivering a modest update to Intel’s Rapids platform. "Is this in fact true? Intel seem unable to get their story straight! NYT said yesterday
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/10/technology/inte...
"She also determined that Intel had scheduled more products than its engineers and customers could easily handle. So she streamlined that product road map, including pushing back a successor to Sapphire Rapids to 2024 from 2023."
Ryan Smith - Friday, January 27, 2023 - link
Normally I'm not one to argue with the Grey Lady, but in this case Intel was very explicit about it arriving in 2023. To quote Pat's prepared remarks:"Our DCAI roadmap only improves from here. Emerald Rapids is sampling and has completed power-on with top OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and CSP customers, and it remains on track to launch in the second half of 2023."
Techie2 - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
Right now Intel is on a disastrous downhill slide that started years ago and shows no end in sight. Amazingly it's all self-inflicted pain as a result of mismanagement. Even Gelsinger doesn't have a magic wand.Silver5urfer - Saturday, January 28, 2023 - link
The problem with Client computing is, people are dumber and overall lower IQ reasons are obv by the Think Tanks induced progression look into CFR and Davos, Bolderberg. So they buy more into disposable junk called - mobile phones, unfortunately the big think tanks decided that human race should buy into more disposable trash use and throw ARM phones over powerful x86 also worst part being Windows OS also took negative aspects of mobile and killing the Desktop Power User nature so do the gaming, the mobile gaming segment owns already 3/4th of 170Bn Annual market its going to get worse..., however the mobile buying, that is only a part. Since the whole muh Covid issues, the spike with higher client sales demand and overall massive consumption this will obv look like a massive hit. It is same for most companies which is why we see Amazon, Google, and a lot of Technology corporations axing the jobs to make the sheets look positive to those "Investors".Shame how Intel killed off Optane, I can never forget it was the world's best Memory technology and top notch innovation in Technology. Intel also sold off 5G division for cheap to Apple probably insider dealings else it was a huge loss for Intel and a big win to that Apple. It's always the greedy Investors and the bean counters that run the show unfortunately. So we do get poor garbage products like TLC junk and chokepoint on sequential performance with horrid endurance.
Finally the Node. Well Intel 7 is very dense vs TSMC N7 but the problem is Intel was late by 3 years. Same for Intel 4, it is denser than TSMC 5N. All in all Intel first needs to redesign the CORE. That thing is old. They barely are keeping it alive with all that Hybrid nonsense E trash Cinebench accelerator cores and poor Base Clocks with sky high Boost Clocks and higher Temp and Power targets. Yea the IPC is solid on the new 13th Gen P core but it's limited by 8 big cores max. I hope Intel finds a proper successor to CORE and keeps x86 alive.
That thing needs a new slate. EMIB cannot magically let them scale over AMD's ZEN uArch, add AMD's MCM design scaling with IF and whole IODie aspect is working wonders, 96C beast on EPYC Genoa is a bloodbath for Intel only advantage being 8P Socket support for Intel and 2P only AMD.
Otritus - Friday, February 3, 2023 - link
Ever heard of the term “Royal Core” or “Ocean Cove”? Ocean Cove is a cancelled micro architecture designed by Jim Keller. It morphed into the Royal Core project wherein Jim Keller put together a system with a solid micro architecture that can be consistently improved upon like Zen. Royal Core architectures are expected to arrive in 2024, led by Lion Cove. Royal Core starts out with an IPC lead over Zen, and more aggressively raises IPC. Whether expectations are met are yet to be seen, but it’s certainly a good position to be in 2025 onwards.