If the AZ FAB is still on, that's great! I thought I had read something about TSMC deciding not to expand its FABs in the EU and elsewhere...so evidently the TSMC AZ FAB is still on the list to be completed!
The AZ fab has a more or less guaranteed set of customers in the form of the US Govt/DoD who want a more modern domestic fab to contract sensitive parts to than what GF can provide. A few years ago, that probably would've been Intel; but after their 10nm faceplant the pentagon probably isn't willing to gamble on them actually delivering on their announced foundry services.
For that stuff they can keep using GloFo's old legacy process fabs. They do have some stuff that would benefit from much higher transistor densities that they really don't want to send overseas. That's why they've been pushing to get someone to build a modern contract fab inside the US.
I imagine someone finally realized all the commercial chips that were going in their systems from companies like Xilinx. The question is can the government make AMD/Xilinx uses a commercially non-competitive fab in the US. If they were smart they would take some of that $700B defense budget and make it worth everyone’s effort.
"Old process" or not, when you consider how many products are still produced now in the 20-30nm class (chipsets, modems, ASICs, FPGAs, etc) there will be 5nm demand for over a decade as these products slowly transition to smaller processes - but they wont until those processes are mature, inexpensive, and actually available (current 5-7nm demand is above 100% and will be for at least another year)
TSMC said that fabs in the US and EU can't be competitive. That was certainly a response to Intel's announced entry into a competition with TSMC and its plan to locate the foundries in the US and the EU. It's predictable TSMC would say something like that since Intel's plan is in direct opposition to TSMC's strategic positioning. It didn't have to do with TSMC's Arizona fab, which is in arrangement with the US and Arizona government in order to provide chipmaking capacity for the DoD.
As far as what TSMC said, we will have to see the US and EU governments' long-term resolve to apply the lessons learned from the covid situation, because it's possibly true that a certain amount of continuing tax incentives are going to have to be maintained in order to make the NA and European foundries competitive with TSMC. The alternative, however, is to have the majority of the world's advanced chipmaking capacity in one basket that is the takeover target of a hostile world power. It's cost efficiency versus robustness, similar to having so much medical equipment and drug precursors being manufactured in China.
No matter how someone spins it, whatever tax incentives TSMC is getting are going to pay off better than those Wisconsin provided to Foxconn (who totally fucked them.)
The governor is a figurehead. The people of the state and the federal government got behind all that. That also includes the national mainstream media. If there had been real resistance to the project it wouldn't have been green-lighted.
Americans are trained to fixate on the 'few bad apples' so the system can remain broken. One governor is not the cause nor the symptom.
I suspect the process for the AZ fab is going to come down to global vs US Govt sales. IF they're primarily chasing a single customer who wants to be able to keep low volume parts in production for long periods of time there's no need to chase the ultimate bleeding edge and drive up costs for everyone. If they're expanding scope to using it to help drain their commercial backlog though launching at as modern a process as possible makes a lot more sense.
Short vs long term support processes is probably also a factor. The DoD needs the latter, but some of TSMC's process variants are only aimed at companies chasing the latest and greatest who are willing and able to keep migrating to something new every year or two and don't have significant lifespans as a result.
Given TSMC's domestic fabs are grinding to a halt due to Taiwan's drought causing water shortages -- to the point the company must truck in drinking water to keep operating -- you have to wonder if Arizona is the best choice. Especially when they'll be competing with Intel for the desert's limited water when the increasingly frequent dry spells inevitably occur.
Qualified staff can relocate (that's how Arizona's tech population came to be) but water supplies aren't so mobile.
Lake Pleasant is an artificial reservoir fed primarily by a diversion from the Colorado River. Diverting more to feed additional demand isn't an option; every drop of water in the Colorado is claimed by somebody, such that the entire river disappears almost 200 km before it reaches the ocean. Lake Pleasant took ten years to fill after the dam was completed in 1994, courtesy of a multi-year drought. Actually, meteorologists consider the US West to be in a mega drought since 1999, where years with historically "normal" precipitation have become the oddities.
As such, vicious political and legal fights over water use have become the norm in the Colorado watershed over the last century due to declining water ingress (glacial retreat and less precipitation) and rising demand (population growth and irrigation to replace decreased natural rainfall).
There's no indication the trend will reverse itself, so placing long-term water-dependent investments in an area with a decreasing water supply seems economically foolish.
Taiwan's economic minister said that chipmaking is not affected by water restrictions, and that they expect to maintain production under current drought restrictions until at least May.
So even though TSMC is trucking in water, it doesn't mean chip production has halted. Apparently it's not even reduced yet.
Chip makers, like other industrial water users in central Taiwan, had their water supplies cut by 15 per cent as of April 6.
Moreover, Taiwan will cut off non-industrial water users two days a week to give chip makers even that reduced supply. It's a political decision to give one group water at the expense of another.
Chip makers will cover that 15 per cent restriction by increasing trucking of water. Being able to keep operating normally rests on the assumption that Taiwan starts its monsoon season as usual in May, but there's no assurances 2021 will be any wetter than 2020 (which lacked even one of the typhoons which normally refill water supplies). And this is the second time in six years Taiwan's water supplies were this low, which doesn't bode well for the future.
I question why building in the desert is so desirable, too. At least Foxconn in Wisconsin made sense. The problem is Wisconsin is so politically dysfunctional they make Illinois look like a well oiled machine.
Speaking to reporters at an industry event in Hsinchu in his role as chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association, Liu said uncertainty around the U.S.-China relationship led to a supply chain shift and pushed some companies to double up on orders to secure inventory. [..] “Uncertainties led to double booking, but actual capacity is larger than demand,” Liu said.
Basically what happened is around 2014 Intel unveiled the hottest mainstream node in the industry, and hasn't since. Meanwhile Samsung, TSMC, GloFo, etc have all surpassed them by two generations because of dysfunctional engineering miscalculations by Intel that their competitors didn't have.
Taiwan is said to have a strategy named" Silicon Sheild". By investing heavily on Fab capacity on its land even when it's not economically optimal, they bet on an US intervention because the China attack will cut the chip supply chain and set off a great recession. The more fabs, the more motivation for US to be embroiled, the more chance Taiwan may survive. It's somehow thespian to see those meticulous fabs built and destined to be wiped out by brute force.
maybe for a while, but finally aggressors/dictators loose societies cultural values and progress, what's based on diversity (and many of dictators are so proud of their cultural historical influence)?
This is what happens when the USA is no longer the world superpower. The bullies of the world know they are weak and will do what they want. The last time the USA did anything noteworthy on the global stage to stop aggression and somewhat successfully flexed their muscles was in Kuwait. 30 years ago. Everything since has been a disaster and the United States is a joke full of warnings and no action.
maybe its not on me for to reply, but me thinking, that bullies live to warnings seem being a joke until recognizing situation is getting real that way predicted What's the value of E=m*c^2 in the hands of bullies or mature characters working on progress, because of having conceptional authority? The Roman Empire was success, in their time, because of distributing supportive cultural behaviors, even to their "opponents" people. Kuwait should have been cultivated on/supported with regenerative solar energy structures, getting independent from their neighbors countries income on fossil oil resources. China acts authoritarian (maybe to some extent illiberal, like presented on media abroad) on "their" country and neighbor countries. Don't know how China will behave if they could suppress liberalism on remote or "developed"/industrial nations? My experience does not show signs of this with being connected to China through trading. China is more than 3500 years of documented written culture and "中华人民共和国" "People's Republic of China" is around 1.3 billion people accept being connected with, not Taiwan or Tibet or Democrats (to some extent and within explicit context of contrary ideology). It's more to answer this, than another demonstration of power of "rude majorities" Democracy? Let the muscle think about this and ask its conclusion?
Despite all your worries, taiwan invests a meager 14b usd annually to defend itself, less than TSMC on its fab. When US generals talk about the oncoming invasion in 5 years, taiwan is acting nothing like a regime facing existential threat in contrary. Seems that they totally bet on the silicon sheild.
Considering US generals to invade a full democracy (given there's no reunion to PRC in between)? US Flawed democracy RoC Taiwan Full democracy PR China Authoritarian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
Compared to the price of a fab, a desalination plant (and a power station if necessary) is small change. TSMC could easily afford to build a desalination plant in Taiwan to convert seawater to the fresh water needed for its operations. (Taiwan is an island with plenty of access to sea water - the same is NOT true of Arizona.)
TSMC is getting more and more aggressive about recycling water. They are finishing up the building of the world’s first privately owned reclaimed water plant. Also, in 2019, TSMC recycled 133.7 million tons of water (including factories in China), approximately 4 times the size of the Baoshan reservoir. Learn about the reclaimed water plant at https://buzzorange.com/techorange/en/2021/03/05/ts...
With all these companies doubling down for more capacity. Does anyone think once demand stabilizes we may have glut of capacity. Or have things hit a critical mass where we actually need this much capacity going forward?
I expect prices to go down, but everything is basically needing a chip or 20 today. so I think that tbh we might actually need that capacity for 2025 or so. a lot can change in 3-4 years tho, like climate change :-/
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WaltC - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
If the AZ FAB is still on, that's great! I thought I had read something about TSMC deciding not to expand its FABs in the EU and elsewhere...so evidently the TSMC AZ FAB is still on the list to be completed!DanNeely - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
The AZ fab has a more or less guaranteed set of customers in the form of the US Govt/DoD who want a more modern domestic fab to contract sensitive parts to than what GF can provide. A few years ago, that probably would've been Intel; but after their 10nm faceplant the pentagon probably isn't willing to gamble on them actually delivering on their announced foundry services.Smell This - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
The gub'mint does not do bleeding edge ___ they most likely are at 32 / 28nm node
Spunjji - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Depends on what they're doing with the chips - and by 2024 (and beyond) I suspect they'd find a use for 5nm manufacturing *somewhere*.Molor1880 - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
The DoD is buying Frontier (OLCF-5) for the DoE. That's 7nm EPIC chips.DanNeely - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
For that stuff they can keep using GloFo's old legacy process fabs. They do have some stuff that would benefit from much higher transistor densities that they really don't want to send overseas. That's why they've been pushing to get someone to build a modern contract fab inside the US.flgt - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
I imagine someone finally realized all the commercial chips that were going in their systems from companies like Xilinx. The question is can the government make AMD/Xilinx uses a commercially non-competitive fab in the US. If they were smart they would take some of that $700B defense budget and make it worth everyone’s effort.Kamen Rider Blade - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
But by the time the AZ fab is done, 5nm is going to be a old processSamus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
"Old process" or not, when you consider how many products are still produced now in the 20-30nm class (chipsets, modems, ASICs, FPGAs, etc) there will be 5nm demand for over a decade as these products slowly transition to smaller processes - but they wont until those processes are mature, inexpensive, and actually available (current 5-7nm demand is above 100% and will be for at least another year)Zoolook - Monday, April 5, 2021 - link
Considering that the military wants their chips hardened, current 5 nm isn't really for them.EthiaW - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
The most urgently needed process these days is actually, you guess…55nm, which can be dated back to the beginning of the century.Yojimbo - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
TSMC said that fabs in the US and EU can't be competitive. That was certainly a response to Intel's announced entry into a competition with TSMC and its plan to locate the foundries in the US and the EU. It's predictable TSMC would say something like that since Intel's plan is in direct opposition to TSMC's strategic positioning. It didn't have to do with TSMC's Arizona fab, which is in arrangement with the US and Arizona government in order to provide chipmaking capacity for the DoD.As far as what TSMC said, we will have to see the US and EU governments' long-term resolve to apply the lessons learned from the covid situation, because it's possibly true that a certain amount of continuing tax incentives are going to have to be maintained in order to make the NA and European foundries competitive with TSMC. The alternative, however, is to have the majority of the world's advanced chipmaking capacity in one basket that is the takeover target of a hostile world power. It's cost efficiency versus robustness, similar to having so much medical equipment and drug precursors being manufactured in China.
Oxford Guy - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link
How much in tax ‘incentives’ is TSMC getting from Arizona residents and US residents?Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
No matter how someone spins it, whatever tax incentives TSMC is getting are going to pay off better than those Wisconsin provided to Foxconn (who totally fucked them.)zsdersw - Monday, April 5, 2021 - link
Oh, believe me, we know all about how Foxconn screwed us in WI. Our former governor was and still is a complete dipshit.Oxford Guy - Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - link
The governor is a figurehead. The people of the state and the federal government got behind all that. That also includes the national mainstream media. If there had been real resistance to the project it wouldn't have been green-lighted.Americans are trained to fixate on the 'few bad apples' so the system can remain broken. One governor is not the cause nor the symptom.
Oxford Guy - Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - link
Also, the name should have been a clue. Fox + con.sweetca - Thursday, April 8, 2021 - link
haha. omg.DanNeely - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
I suspect the process for the AZ fab is going to come down to global vs US Govt sales. IF they're primarily chasing a single customer who wants to be able to keep low volume parts in production for long periods of time there's no need to chase the ultimate bleeding edge and drive up costs for everyone. If they're expanding scope to using it to help drain their commercial backlog though launching at as modern a process as possible makes a lot more sense.DanNeely - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Short vs long term support processes is probably also a factor. The DoD needs the latter, but some of TSMC's process variants are only aimed at companies chasing the latest and greatest who are willing and able to keep migrating to something new every year or two and don't have significant lifespans as a result.Galcobar - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Given TSMC's domestic fabs are grinding to a halt due to Taiwan's drought causing water shortages -- to the point the company must truck in drinking water to keep operating -- you have to wonder if Arizona is the best choice. Especially when they'll be competing with Intel for the desert's limited water when the increasingly frequent dry spells inevitably occur.Qualified staff can relocate (that's how Arizona's tech population came to be) but water supplies aren't so mobile.
peevee - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
North Phoenix has Lake Pleasant nearby, and a canal supplying water from it.Galcobar - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Lake Pleasant is an artificial reservoir fed primarily by a diversion from the Colorado River. Diverting more to feed additional demand isn't an option; every drop of water in the Colorado is claimed by somebody, such that the entire river disappears almost 200 km before it reaches the ocean. Lake Pleasant took ten years to fill after the dam was completed in 1994, courtesy of a multi-year drought. Actually, meteorologists consider the US West to be in a mega drought since 1999, where years with historically "normal" precipitation have become the oddities.As such, vicious political and legal fights over water use have become the norm in the Colorado watershed over the last century due to declining water ingress (glacial retreat and less precipitation) and rising demand (population growth and irrigation to replace decreased natural rainfall).
There's no indication the trend will reverse itself, so placing long-term water-dependent investments in an area with a decreasing water supply seems economically foolish.
Oxford Guy - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link
They’ll drain the Great Lakes to feed the desert.grant3 - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Taiwan's economic minister said that chipmaking is not affected by water restrictions, and that they expect to maintain production under current drought restrictions until at least May.So even though TSMC is trucking in water, it doesn't mean chip production has halted. Apparently it's not even reduced yet.
Galcobar - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Chip makers, like other industrial water users in central Taiwan, had their water supplies cut by 15 per cent as of April 6.Moreover, Taiwan will cut off non-industrial water users two days a week to give chip makers even that reduced supply. It's a political decision to give one group water at the expense of another.
Chip makers will cover that 15 per cent restriction by increasing trucking of water. Being able to keep operating normally rests on the assumption that Taiwan starts its monsoon season as usual in May, but there's no assurances 2021 will be any wetter than 2020 (which lacked even one of the typhoons which normally refill water supplies). And this is the second time in six years Taiwan's water supplies were this low, which doesn't bode well for the future.
Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
I question why building in the desert is so desirable, too. At least Foxconn in Wisconsin made sense. The problem is Wisconsin is so politically dysfunctional they make Illinois look like a well oiled machine.peevee - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Will they be able to open the Fab in Arizona before China occupies Taiwan?My bet is no.
xol - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Are we sure about this/Same publisher (Bloomberg), literally the day before :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30...
quote :
Speaking to reporters at an industry event in Hsinchu in his role as chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association, Liu said uncertainty around the U.S.-China relationship led to a supply chain shift and pushed some companies to double up on orders to secure inventory. [..]
“Uncertainties led to double booking, but actual capacity is larger than demand,” Liu said.
xol - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
[more] This isn't an increase over previous numbers (unlike some sites are reporting).More than 2 months ago they (TSMC) quoted $28B capex for 2021. https://www.eetasia.com/tsmc-expects-capex-boost-f... (Jan 2021)
Repeat that over 3 years and round up and you've got $100B
Bloomberg is reporting old news, but because it's Bloomberg people are taking it seriously like it's new leather
zodiacfml - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Crazy. It is just a few years ago when TSMC was several process generations behind Intel and Intel 10nm was supposed to be available in ~2017Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
Basically what happened is around 2014 Intel unveiled the hottest mainstream node in the industry, and hasn't since. Meanwhile Samsung, TSMC, GloFo, etc have all surpassed them by two generations because of dysfunctional engineering miscalculations by Intel that their competitors didn't have.EthiaW - Friday, April 2, 2021 - link
Taiwan is said to have a strategy named" Silicon Sheild". By investing heavily on Fab capacity on its land even when it's not economically optimal, they bet on an US intervention because the China attack will cut the chip supply chain and set off a great recession. The more fabs, the more motivation for US to be embroiled, the more chance Taiwan may survive.It's somehow thespian to see those meticulous fabs built and destined to be wiped out by brute force.
Oxford Guy - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link
China will win. Look at Hong Kong. Look at the Crimea.It’s a good time to be the aggressor in global politics.
back2future - Saturday, April 3, 2021 - link
maybe for a while, but finally aggressors/dictators loose societies cultural values and progress, what's based on diversity (and many of dictators are so proud of their cultural historical influence)?Samus - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
This is what happens when the USA is no longer the world superpower. The bullies of the world know they are weak and will do what they want. The last time the USA did anything noteworthy on the global stage to stop aggression and somewhat successfully flexed their muscles was in Kuwait. 30 years ago. Everything since has been a disaster and the United States is a joke full of warnings and no action.back2future - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
maybe its not on me for to reply, but me thinking, that bullies live to warnings seem being a joke until recognizing situation is getting real that way predictedWhat's the value of E=m*c^2 in the hands of bullies or mature characters working on progress, because of having conceptional authority?
The Roman Empire was success, in their time, because of distributing supportive cultural behaviors, even to their "opponents" people. Kuwait should have been cultivated on/supported with regenerative solar energy structures, getting independent from their neighbors countries income on fossil oil resources.
China acts authoritarian (maybe to some extent illiberal, like presented on media abroad) on "their" country and neighbor countries. Don't know how China will behave if they could suppress liberalism on remote or "developed"/industrial nations? My experience does not show signs of this with being connected to China through trading. China is more than 3500 years of documented written culture and "中华人民共和国" "People's Republic of China" is around 1.3 billion people accept being connected with, not Taiwan or Tibet or Democrats (to some extent and within explicit context of contrary ideology). It's more to answer this, than another demonstration of power of "rude majorities" Democracy?
Let the muscle think about this and ask its conclusion?
EthiaW - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
Despite all your worries, taiwan invests a meager 14b usd annually to defend itself, less than TSMC on its fab. When US generals talk about the oncoming invasion in 5 years, taiwan is acting nothing like a regime facing existential threat in contrary. Seems that they totally bet on the silicon sheild.back2future - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
Considering US generals to invade a full democracy (given there's no reunion to PRC in between)?US Flawed democracy
RoC Taiwan Full democracy
PR China Authoritarian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
Duncan Macdonald - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
Compared to the price of a fab, a desalination plant (and a power station if necessary) is small change. TSMC could easily afford to build a desalination plant in Taiwan to convert seawater to the fresh water needed for its operations. (Taiwan is an island with plenty of access to sea water - the same is NOT true of Arizona.)peevee - Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - link
How much water is REALLY needed for the chip production and why it cannot be recycled?Eric Klien - Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - link
TSMC is getting more and more aggressive about recycling water. They are finishing up the building of the world’s first privately owned reclaimed water plant. Also, in 2019, TSMC recycled 133.7 million tons of water (including factories in China), approximately 4 times the size of the Baoshan reservoir. Learn about the reclaimed water plant at https://buzzorange.com/techorange/en/2021/03/05/ts...Falloutboy - Sunday, April 4, 2021 - link
With all these companies doubling down for more capacity. Does anyone think once demand stabilizes we may have glut of capacity. Or have things hit a critical mass where we actually need this much capacity going forward?Linustechtips12#6900xt - Wednesday, April 7, 2021 - link
I expect prices to go down, but everything is basically needing a chip or 20 today. so I think that tbh we might actually need that capacity for 2025 or so. a lot can change in 3-4 years tho, like climate change :-/