Pat can talk like no one else. But if can get talented engineers to come back to Intel, execution and product will follow. I am reasonably optimistic about Intel. I will enter a small position in case it drops at open.
It dropped because he admitted to changing culture back towards engineering rather than the horrendous sales and marketing first approach they've been taking for the past decade due to lack of competition.
Stock will likely take a hit since fixing intel's mess will cost a lot of time and money, but clearly its not because nothing has changed. All the executives getting booted is proof enough that they're desperate for a real solution.
Pat + Glenn Hinton + "few more weeks of analysis" = "will allow us to put Intel on a path", for "Unquestioned leadership in process" and "We want to have an unquestionable leadership product" So simple. Dat level of arrogance from old Intel. But old Intel do not exist now.
"I was involved when Intel was late to multicore, and we turned around the company and took the leadership position. Great companies can come back from periods of difficulty, and they come back stronger and more capable than ever. That's the opportunity at Intel. I look forward to being part of that."
Yeah. First (JMO) you used your money to bride everyone to NOT use the better products of your competitor and then used your money to push ahead of the competition. Right?
Pat: "Long term innovations are coming out of research as we look to close gaps and leap ahead of external foundries. Unquestioned leadership in process is our goal."
Pat, you forget that TSMC will be 2 node ahead of you in 2023. The new Intel CEO will not change anything about TSMC or AMD competitiveness. If Jim Keller was not able to change anything, Pat G. will not stir the ship either. Intel is a conglomerate and unless they focus entirely on their main business, they will not beat the agility of their competition because of their own inertia as a company.
Maybe, maybe not. It took Intel nearly 2 years after TSMC had launched N7 to get their 10nm node to a point where it was on par in terms of electrical performance, and it's still not clear whether yields and density have reached (or will ever reach) a competitive level.
If all goes well, maybe 7nm will be equivalent to TSMC 5nm on launch. Maybe it'll be more like N6. Maybe TSMC 3nm will be a bust, though - we just don't know yet.
Intel's 10nm is already almost as dense as N6. Now who's pulling information out of their a$s? Intel's 7nm will be >2x the density of their 10nm, that's almost certainly denser than N5, maybe even denser than N4.
Do you know that Intel has been using TSMC for quite some time? As far as TSMC being "2 nodes ahead" - Most of the production is on their 10nm class process - "7nm". Apple is getting all the "5nm" it can eat - and Intel is moving some production to "5nm" in the second half of 2021 - and to "3nm" next year. Haven't heard about TSMC moving to Cobalt instead of Copper - IF those processes were "2 nodes ahead" then Cobalt would be an absolute requirement - as copper becomes a resistor rather than a good conductor.
AMD is barely competitive - and with TSMC's supply issue it will become even worse. Q12021 will be a bloodbath for AMD - with the requirement to prioritize scarce materials first to Apple then to AMD for high volume low margin consoles - and the higher margin PC parts after that.
Intel is not a conglomerate - they are an IDM - which means their supply chain is much much shorter and far more robust that that of Samsung, GloFo and TSMC.
Jim Keller ran headlong into the Murthy ego - and Murthy was likely the reason Keller left - he is somewhat of a butterfly - he never stays in one place very long - which with someone as talented as Keller is not that uncommon. With Murthy being gone, progress will be made.
Gelsinger will make needed changes - combined with the departure of Murthy - will be substantial.
"Do you know that Intel has been using TSMC for quite some time?" Not for major CPU (or GPU) products.
"Most of the production is on their 10nm class process - '7nm'" You always say this, but given that Intel 10nm still doesn't compete on realised density or yields with TSMC 7nm, I guess Intel 10nm is "13nm class" in your parlance? 😬
"Q12021 will be a bloodbath for AMD" Can we hold you to that prediction, or will you just make up more stuff if it doesn't come true?
Intel's 10nm might not be competitive in yields, but it's perfectly fine for realised density. You do realise you can only compare Intel Core to AMD Ryzen, right?
Just sold my AMD stock a few days ago. From $41 to $93. Dividends, cash and RMD at work. A good run in about 6-months time. Now I think it's Intel's time with Alder Lake and their new processes coming our way. Intel introducing two new generation CPU's in less than one year got to be good for business. Mobo manufacturers getting to "double-dip" this year as well. Not looking for an easy $$$ windfall that AMD so kindly provided, but Intel's first quarter 2022 earnings call cannot come soon enough. This is where my money or former AMD windfall will be! Good to see that Intel's results for the fourth quarter topped estimates, allowing Bob Swan to leave the company on something of a high note. Regardless, Bob will be very happy man indeed as he will be landing with a 'golden parachute' in a gated country club community. A second mid-century fairway home, a 1950's household and members only golfing buddies. About Keller being a butterfly? The same thing was said about Huang when he left AMD in a very similar position. His recent purchase of "Arm Holdings" for a cool USD$40 billion is another sign that people like him are in a different stratosphere than us remaining mortals with no access. Perhaps Huang will grab Keller as NVIDIA is very busy these days? As with Pat now in the corner office at Intel, he was always known to be a good (technical) operational guy so to speak and good with the ranks, but never a good strategist. But what do I care as for me it's all about the money and Pat better be stepping up to the bar inertia and all.
Not 2 nodes behind. Intel's 7nm will be over 200MT/sqmm, that's denser than N5 even N4. By 2023, TSMC will only be less than a full node ahead if Intel 7nm can deliver on time.
This Q&A was a prime use case for the BS identifyer bookmarklet (https://mourner.github.io/bullshit.js/). 108 counts of BS filtered out makes for much smoother reading, even if some of the words filtered out do actually make sense in this context.
I really wish executives could ditch their nonsensical buzzword bingo financial analyst-pleasing sociolect and actually use words that mean things.
If you want smaller words and less "buzzwords" then read what the CEO of an ice cream company has to say.
"I really wish executives could ditch their nonsensical buzzword bingo financial analyst-pleasing sociolect and actually use words that mean things."
I am assuming you mean lingo and not bingo (this forum software needs to be updated to allow corrections - and to show more than 4 lines when you are composing a post)
This is one of the most technical companies and industry in the world - and trying to please the Wall Street Casino Analysts is meaningless - they are up to their necks in the AMD pump n dump.
I ran that program, and it filtered out your posts ... weird.
Now, for some REALITY: TSMC isn't going to just give Intel a ton of capacity so Intel can remain competitive. Not when TSMCs goal is to ANNIHILATE Intel and take their high-margin CPU production business. TSMC will fab some GPUs for Intel and slowly bleed them down, while FULLY SUPPORTING their champion, and weapon, AMD.
All of Gelsinger's talk, Intels well-laid plans, and these "TSMC producing Intel CPU" rumors will not change the fact that AMD has 7nm+ chiplets, 64-core server processors, superior mobile silicon, superior desktop silicon, working 5nm Zen 4 prototypes, MCM GPU plans, and a CEO and team that continues to execute, quarter after quarter, year after year.
TSMC is not going to fab Intel's high-end processors in volume. Gelsinger has stated this, and it is not in TSMCs interest.
I posed this question two years ago: Who do you trust to execute for the next several years? Intel, after delaying 10nm for over FOUR years? Or TSMC and AMD, who have been executing perfectly in those four years?
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FreckledTrout - Thursday, January 21, 2021 - link
Grovean attitude :)Deicidium369 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
Noyce comment..trivik12 - Thursday, January 21, 2021 - link
Pat can talk like no one else. But if can get talented engineers to come back to Intel, execution and product will follow. I am reasonably optimistic about Intel. I will enter a small position in case it drops at open.eva02langley - Friday, January 22, 2021 - link
It did drop heavily because investors understood that nothing has changed.whatthe123 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
It dropped because he admitted to changing culture back towards engineering rather than the horrendous sales and marketing first approach they've been taking for the past decade due to lack of competition.Stock will likely take a hit since fixing intel's mess will cost a lot of time and money, but clearly its not because nothing has changed. All the executives getting booted is proof enough that they're desperate for a real solution.
eva02langley - Friday, January 22, 2021 - link
Time to sell, not to buy.Deicidium369 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
Do you own even a single stock - I mean 1 single share at least in any company?TristanSDX - Thursday, January 21, 2021 - link
Pat + Glenn Hinton + "few more weeks of analysis" = "will allow us to put Intel on a path", for "Unquestioned leadership in process" and "We want to have an unquestionable leadership product"So simple. Dat level of arrogance from old Intel. But old Intel do not exist now.
yannigr2 - Friday, January 22, 2021 - link
"I was involved when Intel was late to multicore, and we turned around the company and took the leadership position. Great companies can come back from periods of difficulty, and they come back stronger and more capable than ever. That's the opportunity at Intel. I look forward to being part of that."Yeah. First (JMO) you used your money to bride everyone to NOT use the better products of your competitor and then used your money to push ahead of the competition. Right?
eva02langley - Friday, January 22, 2021 - link
Pat: "Long term innovations are coming out of research as we look to close gaps and leap ahead of external foundries. Unquestioned leadership in process is our goal."Pat, you forget that TSMC will be 2 node ahead of you in 2023. The new Intel CEO will not change anything about TSMC or AMD competitiveness. If Jim Keller was not able to change anything, Pat G. will not stir the ship either. Intel is a conglomerate and unless they focus entirely on their main business, they will not beat the agility of their competition because of their own inertia as a company.
Tabalan - Friday, January 22, 2021 - link
There will be one node difference - Intel will be on 7 nm (aka TSMC 5 nm) vs TSMC on 3 nm. Different marketing names.Deicidium369 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
I have heard Intel 7nm beng 4-5nm in TSMC marketing speak.Spunjji - Monday, January 25, 2021 - link
I had heard you pull this information from out of... *ahem* thin air.Spunjji - Monday, January 25, 2021 - link
Maybe, maybe not. It took Intel nearly 2 years after TSMC had launched N7 to get their 10nm node to a point where it was on par in terms of electrical performance, and it's still not clear whether yields and density have reached (or will ever reach) a competitive level.If all goes well, maybe 7nm will be equivalent to TSMC 5nm on launch. Maybe it'll be more like N6. Maybe TSMC 3nm will be a bust, though - we just don't know yet.
dotjaz - Sunday, January 31, 2021 - link
Intel's 10nm is already almost as dense as N6. Now who's pulling information out of their a$s? Intel's 7nm will be >2x the density of their 10nm, that's almost certainly denser than N5, maybe even denser than N4.Deicidium369 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
Do you know that Intel has been using TSMC for quite some time? As far as TSMC being "2 nodes ahead" - Most of the production is on their 10nm class process - "7nm". Apple is getting all the "5nm" it can eat - and Intel is moving some production to "5nm" in the second half of 2021 - and to "3nm" next year. Haven't heard about TSMC moving to Cobalt instead of Copper - IF those processes were "2 nodes ahead" then Cobalt would be an absolute requirement - as copper becomes a resistor rather than a good conductor.AMD is barely competitive - and with TSMC's supply issue it will become even worse. Q12021 will be a bloodbath for AMD - with the requirement to prioritize scarce materials first to Apple then to AMD for high volume low margin consoles - and the higher margin PC parts after that.
Intel is not a conglomerate - they are an IDM - which means their supply chain is much much shorter and far more robust that that of Samsung, GloFo and TSMC.
Jim Keller ran headlong into the Murthy ego - and Murthy was likely the reason Keller left - he is somewhat of a butterfly - he never stays in one place very long - which with someone as talented as Keller is not that uncommon. With Murthy being gone, progress will be made.
Gelsinger will make needed changes - combined with the departure of Murthy - will be substantial.
Smell This - Sunday, January 24, 2021 - link
[ Y A W N ]
Spunjji - Monday, January 25, 2021 - link
"Do you know that Intel has been using TSMC for quite some time?"Not for major CPU (or GPU) products.
"Most of the production is on their 10nm class process - '7nm'"
You always say this, but given that Intel 10nm still doesn't compete on realised density or yields with TSMC 7nm, I guess Intel 10nm is "13nm class" in your parlance? 😬
"Q12021 will be a bloodbath for AMD"
Can we hold you to that prediction, or will you just make up more stuff if it doesn't come true?
dotjaz - Sunday, January 31, 2021 - link
Intel's 10nm might not be competitive in yields, but it's perfectly fine for realised density. You do realise you can only compare Intel Core to AMD Ryzen, right?Tom Sunday - Monday, January 25, 2021 - link
Just sold my AMD stock a few days ago. From $41 to $93. Dividends, cash and RMD at work. A good run in about 6-months time. Now I think it's Intel's time with Alder Lake and their new processes coming our way. Intel introducing two new generation CPU's in less than one year got to be good for business. Mobo manufacturers getting to "double-dip" this year as well. Not looking for an easy $$$ windfall that AMD so kindly provided, but Intel's first quarter 2022 earnings call cannot come soon enough. This is where my money or former AMD windfall will be! Good to see that Intel's results for the fourth quarter topped estimates, allowing Bob Swan to leave the company on something of a high note. Regardless, Bob will be very happy man indeed as he will be landing with a 'golden parachute' in a gated country club community. A second mid-century fairway home, a 1950's household and members only golfing buddies. About Keller being a butterfly? The same thing was said about Huang when he left AMD in a very similar position. His recent purchase of "Arm Holdings" for a cool USD$40 billion is another sign that people like him are in a different stratosphere than us remaining mortals with no access. Perhaps Huang will grab Keller as NVIDIA is very busy these days? As with Pat now in the corner office at Intel, he was always known to be a good (technical) operational guy so to speak and good with the ranks, but never a good strategist. But what do I care as for me it's all about the money and Pat better be stepping up to the bar inertia and all.dotjaz - Sunday, January 31, 2021 - link
Not 2 nodes behind. Intel's 7nm will be over 200MT/sqmm, that's denser than N5 even N4. By 2023, TSMC will only be less than a full node ahead if Intel 7nm can deliver on time.Valantar - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
This Q&A was a prime use case for the BS identifyer bookmarklet (https://mourner.github.io/bullshit.js/). 108 counts of BS filtered out makes for much smoother reading, even if some of the words filtered out do actually make sense in this context.I really wish executives could ditch their nonsensical buzzword bingo financial analyst-pleasing sociolect and actually use words that mean things.
Deicidium369 - Saturday, January 23, 2021 - link
If you want smaller words and less "buzzwords" then read what the CEO of an ice cream company has to say."I really wish executives could ditch their nonsensical buzzword bingo financial analyst-pleasing sociolect and actually use words that mean things."
I am assuming you mean lingo and not bingo (this forum software needs to be updated to allow corrections - and to show more than 4 lines when you are composing a post)
This is one of the most technical companies and industry in the world - and trying to please the Wall Street Casino Analysts is meaningless - they are up to their necks in the AMD pump n dump.
I ran that program, and it filtered out your posts ... weird.
outsideloop - Thursday, January 28, 2021 - link
Ok, thanks Intel for all that.Now, for some REALITY:
TSMC isn't going to just give Intel a ton of capacity so Intel can remain competitive. Not when TSMCs goal is to ANNIHILATE Intel and take their high-margin CPU production business. TSMC will fab some GPUs for Intel and slowly bleed them down, while FULLY SUPPORTING their champion, and weapon, AMD.
All of Gelsinger's talk, Intels well-laid plans, and these "TSMC producing Intel CPU" rumors will not change the fact that AMD has 7nm+ chiplets, 64-core server processors, superior mobile silicon, superior desktop silicon, working 5nm Zen 4 prototypes, MCM GPU plans, and a CEO and team that continues to execute, quarter after quarter, year after year.
TSMC is not going to fab Intel's high-end processors in volume. Gelsinger has stated this, and it is not in TSMCs interest.
I posed this question two years ago: Who do you trust to execute for the next several years? Intel, after delaying 10nm for over FOUR years? Or TSMC and AMD, who have been executing perfectly in those four years?