96 layer filtering down to the crap end of the market. I am old enof to remember back when "experts" would attack the suggestion that anything near 64 layer might ever be made, because it was supposed to take 5 years inside the oven per wafer.
And at one time the experts thought your face would peel off at 60mph speeds, and that 640K ... and only 5 computers in the entire world. Thing about experts - they get the microphone, but are rarely correct.
actually, my favorite is that IBM planned for 2,500 PCs per year, max. the 5 computer thingee relates specifically to the 'super computer' of its time, the early 1950s. Gates was right about the 640K thingee in the time of the 8088/DOS; wrong by the time Windoze came along, of course.
Once again, that quote from Gates is misunderstood because no one has enough of a clue to spend a few seconds doing research before making themselves look silly for using it vacantly. If you want to make a point about experts and their lack of knowledge in terms of sales projections made decades ago it may be helpful to get the basics right first.
There is always that "one" expert. They are right using current known tech mostly. by 400nm standard a 64 layer ssd would be ~10 cm high chip.
Gates was also right IF price of computer would not go 100x lower within 20 years. You would buy whole towns for performance you get from your phone back in ~1970. (its probably similar speed to what whole nasa had) you ask why they did not predict this pace of growth? Because its INCREDIBLE and we are just used to it.
I'm sure when I was at nasa a few years back one of their guys stated that the whole of the nasa control room was technically inferior to a single 386 computer. Think how much faster a low end phone today is compared to a 386. Its mind boggling just how much technology has come in that time.
Interesting. In 1999, most of the compute assets as Goddard were on Sun UltraSPARC systems in the ~200MHz range. They were not slacking on using modern computer equipment back then which were individually much quicker than a 80386. On the other hand, all six of the flight computers aboard the space shuttle were combined much slower than a modern desktop when the shuttle was finally retired. However ground based compute has been on a 3 year refresh cycle for decades except in rare cases where certain systems have to be backwards compatible with ancient deployed junk still loitering in space where reaching it is economically impractical.
I'd like to think that the people within, Samsung or Micron who were engineering these multi-layer systems many years ago were both genuine experts and strongly believed that these systems could be made.
Why does this matter? Because we live in a time where genuine expertise is being mocked and ignored every day, and plenty of the examples for why it should supposedly be mocked and ignored have this vague unsubstantiated feel, a claim that "experts" (never named, never identified, details never given) made some ridiculous claim, therefore all experts are clearly no better than you or me.
I feel like we have been taking significant steps backward recently. Maybe that's just a consequence of our fight or flight instincts being constantly triggered given global circumstances.
Exactly. And frequently non-experts decide who's an "expert" - think of a TV producer trying to find an expert to go on a news show. The most worst place to be is often being an expert in an adjacent field, or one in that field not working on solving a particular problem. They know enough to know the challenges, but haven't been working to find a solution.
depending on who the expert is, you could have someone who say, designed CPUs for decades but never really did NAND stuff or got that involved with actual process design before say, getting involved in teaching. That person might scoff at the notion that 64 layers would ever be possible - let alone desirable given cost/benefit tradeoffs - and they know enough to convince a lay person - even a very smart one - that they know what they're talking about.
I've had good luck with the S600/S700 drives but they are SLOW and noticeable bottlenecks in decently fast (Haswell+) machines as a boot drive. The only drive that has performed worse is the Kingston A400 (which is slower than a hard disk much of the time in sustained READS and writes)
The S700 Pro is substantially faster, showing the need for this controller to have DRAM cache so the drive doesn't tie itself up with queue thrashes.
Why would a tech company bother releasing a 256gb 2.5" SDD in 2020? They sell for 20 dollars each used nowadays, including a 2 year warranty....
(I wouldn't touch a used HDD, but SSDs are pretty bulletproof and I have no problem with using used ones, and if you're looking after a bunch of computers with tiny drives, it's easy to ensure all important documents are backed up to the cloud anyway.)
We’ve updated our terms. By continuing to use the site and/or by logging into your account, you agree to the Site’s updated Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
17 Comments
Back to Article
azfacea - Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - link
96 layer filtering down to the crap end of the market. I am old enof to remember back when "experts" would attack the suggestion that anything near 64 layer might ever be made, because it was supposed to take 5 years inside the oven per wafer.Deicidium369 - Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - link
And at one time the experts thought your face would peel off at 60mph speeds, and that 640K ... and only 5 computers in the entire world. Thing about experts - they get the microphone, but are rarely correct.shabby - Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - link
One expert also thought this covid thing would disappear by easter hahFunBunny2 - Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - link
actually, my favorite is that IBM planned for 2,500 PCs per year, max. the 5 computer thingee relates specifically to the 'super computer' of its time, the early 1950s. Gates was right about the 640K thingee in the time of the 8088/DOS; wrong by the time Windoze came along, of course.PeachNCream - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Once again, that quote from Gates is misunderstood because no one has enough of a clue to spend a few seconds doing research before making themselves look silly for using it vacantly. If you want to make a point about experts and their lack of knowledge in terms of sales projections made decades ago it may be helpful to get the basics right first.deil - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
There is always that "one" expert. They are right using current known tech mostly.by 400nm standard a 64 layer ssd would be ~10 cm high chip.
Gates was also right IF price of computer would not go 100x lower within 20 years. You would buy whole towns for performance you get from your phone back in ~1970. (its probably similar speed to what whole nasa had)
you ask why they did not predict this pace of growth? Because its INCREDIBLE and we are just used to it.
jimbo2779 - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
I'm sure when I was at nasa a few years back one of their guys stated that the whole of the nasa control room was technically inferior to a single 386 computer. Think how much faster a low end phone today is compared to a 386. Its mind boggling just how much technology has come in that time.PeachNCream - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Interesting. In 1999, most of the compute assets as Goddard were on Sun UltraSPARC systems in the ~200MHz range. They were not slacking on using modern computer equipment back then which were individually much quicker than a 80386. On the other hand, all six of the flight computers aboard the space shuttle were combined much slower than a modern desktop when the shuttle was finally retired. However ground based compute has been on a 3 year refresh cycle for decades except in rare cases where certain systems have to be backwards compatible with ancient deployed junk still loitering in space where reaching it is economically impractical.name99 - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Which experts? Rando's on the internet?I'd like to think that the people within, Samsung or Micron who were engineering these multi-layer systems many years ago were both genuine experts and strongly believed that these systems could be made.
Why does this matter? Because we live in a time where genuine expertise is being mocked and ignored every day, and plenty of the examples for why it should supposedly be mocked and ignored have this vague unsubstantiated feel, a claim that "experts" (never named, never identified, details never given) made some ridiculous claim, therefore all experts are clearly no better than you or me.
PeachNCream - Friday, July 17, 2020 - link
I feel like we have been taking significant steps backward recently. Maybe that's just a consequence of our fight or flight instincts being constantly triggered given global circumstances.sing_electric - Monday, July 20, 2020 - link
Exactly. And frequently non-experts decide who's an "expert" - think of a TV producer trying to find an expert to go on a news show. The most worst place to be is often being an expert in an adjacent field, or one in that field not working on solving a particular problem. They know enough to know the challenges, but haven't been working to find a solution.depending on who the expert is, you could have someone who say, designed CPUs for decades but never really did NAND stuff or got that involved with actual process design before say, getting involved in teaching. That person might scoff at the notion that 64 layers would ever be possible - let alone desirable given cost/benefit tradeoffs - and they know enough to convince a lay person - even a very smart one - that they know what they're talking about.
Samus - Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - link
I've had good luck with the S600/S700 drives but they are SLOW and noticeable bottlenecks in decently fast (Haswell+) machines as a boot drive. The only drive that has performed worse is the Kingston A400 (which is slower than a hard disk much of the time in sustained READS and writes)The S700 Pro is substantially faster, showing the need for this controller to have DRAM cache so the drive doesn't tie itself up with queue thrashes.
Soulkeeper - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Hopefully they allow firmware updates for non windows users.ie: bootable iso images
Soulkeeper - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Please ask them about this ?Tomatotech - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
Why would a tech company bother releasing a 256gb 2.5" SDD in 2020? They sell for 20 dollars each used nowadays, including a 2 year warranty....(I wouldn't touch a used HDD, but SSDs are pretty bulletproof and I have no problem with using used ones, and if you're looking after a bunch of computers with tiny drives, it's easy to ensure all important documents are backed up to the cloud anyway.)
Gigaplex - Thursday, July 16, 2020 - link
To install into their entry level computers.MartyKinn - Thursday, July 23, 2020 - link
How difficult is it to clone a harddrive with Acronis?