When it comes to scaling up 3D NAND, the low hanging fruit has been picked. We're not going to see exponential growth in layer counts, and we're getting to the point where increasing layer count on its own won't help make flash more affordable.
As is the case with DRAM, we're probably on the tail end of growth on things cell endurance.
That said, cost per bit trends have been pretty favorable for the last few quarters, even in the face of sharply . Even in the face of sharply increasing demands for storage (https://www.statista.com/statistics/751749/worldwi... ), prices have somehow managed to go down quarter over quarter. This is a miracle and belies the advancements that have been made.
I'm curious as to what this newest generation of nand products will mean, as far as highest capacities of SSDs and other devices that will be manufactured using BiCS5 at 112 layers?
So far, it doesn't look like we're going to see record-breaking per-die capacities. Higher per-die performance may make it easier for consumer SSD vendors to move toward using a smaller number of higher-capacity dies, so some product segments may be able to shift toward higher capacities than are currently the norm.
Flash prices are also going up this year, especially toward the end of the year when 112L will be ramping. So 112L may not offer us better $/GB than today's market until sometime in 2021.
Will this translate to higher capacity SSDs, or simply the ability to manufacture current capacity SSDs that are more energy efficient, at lower prices?
Pretty unlikely to happen this year, even for QLC. NAND prices are going up, especially in the second half of the year when the shortage will be getting serious. I doubt we'll see BiCS5 or other NAND from that generation hit prices that low. Maybe the generation after that, but it's way too soon to know how the volume ramp of that generation will play out.
@ksec : I am also eagerly waiting for 2TB very low power NVME SSD in BGA package for a ~120$ : it would finally make possible to have smartphone with enough storage capacity (512GB / 1TB / 2TB) to be used as a low performance computer when (ideally wirelessly like WiGig) docked with a screen / keyboard / mouse.
I really liked the idea of Continuum from Microsoft, and I really, really hope Apple is working on something similar...
Unfortunately, realistically, I don’t expect this to happen before at least 2022 / 2023 for the technology and prices to make it feasible at a reasonable price, and the advent of Storage Class Memory (SCM) may even be needed to have all-in-one smartphone / computer really take off...
Personally I am looking for 2TB SSD that is cheap and performance doesn't matter, it could be SATA 3 speed, so 500MB/s. Basically on one hand I want a class of SSD to absolutely push the limit of PCI-E 4.0 and 5.0, on 4 lane basis that is 8GB/s or 16GB/s. On the other hand I want an SSD that pushes capacity over everything else ( Endurance and Reliability being reasonable of coz ), and even 160MB/s I would have been fine because of the response time.
But I think most NAND manufacturers know capacity is what everyone looks at, so they decide to sell us faster drive instead.
I wonder about the heat density of this stuff. I mean look how hot HBM2 memory runs, I'm guessing we will see a lot more SSDs and flash drives failing after 1-2yrs ... or failing after being used anywhere but in an air conditioned house.
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Valantar - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
That's an odd number of layers.Billy Tallis - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
When it comes to scaling up 3D NAND, the low hanging fruit has been picked. We're not going to see exponential growth in layer counts, and we're getting to the point where increasing layer count on its own won't help make flash more affordable.FunBunny2 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
"the low hanging fruit has been picked"welcome to the asymptote of progress.
unrealAT - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Fortunately, there's more nuance to it than that.As is the case with DRAM, we're probably on the tail end of growth on things cell endurance.
That said, cost per bit trends have been pretty favorable for the last few quarters, even in the face of sharply . Even in the face of sharply increasing demands for storage (https://www.statista.com/statistics/751749/worldwi... ), prices have somehow managed to go down quarter over quarter. This is a miracle and belies the advancements that have been made.
willis936 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Technically, it's even. :pAlso 16 * 6. You've heard of 16*5 3D NAND a lot recently, right? What's one more stack?
Hul8 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
If you think how it relates to "round numbers" in binary, it's actually112 = 16 × 7 = 64 × ⁷⁄₄
similar to how
96 = 16 × 6 (= 32 × 3) = 64 × ³⁄₂.
fourier07 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Indeed an even number of layers.silencer12 - Saturday, February 1, 2020 - link
No, that is an even number of layers.Rictorhell - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
I'm curious as to what this newest generation of nand products will mean, as far as highest capacities of SSDs and other devices that will be manufactured using BiCS5 at 112 layers?Billy Tallis - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
So far, it doesn't look like we're going to see record-breaking per-die capacities. Higher per-die performance may make it easier for consumer SSD vendors to move toward using a smaller number of higher-capacity dies, so some product segments may be able to shift toward higher capacities than are currently the norm.Flash prices are also going up this year, especially toward the end of the year when 112L will be ramping. So 112L may not offer us better $/GB than today's market until sometime in 2021.
Rictorhell - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Will this translate to higher capacity SSDs, or simply the ability to manufacture current capacity SSDs that are more energy efficient, at lower prices?ksec - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
How long before we reach 2 TB SSD for $120?Billy Tallis - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Pretty unlikely to happen this year, even for QLC. NAND prices are going up, especially in the second half of the year when the shortage will be getting serious. I doubt we'll see BiCS5 or other NAND from that generation hit prices that low. Maybe the generation after that, but it's way too soon to know how the volume ramp of that generation will play out.Samus - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
I'm not sure, you can get 2TB for $180 now. They're crap but just a year ago that cost $300.Diogene7 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
@ksec : I am also eagerly waiting for 2TB very low power NVME SSD in BGA package for a ~120$ : it would finally make possible to have smartphone with enough storage capacity (512GB / 1TB / 2TB) to be used as a low performance computer when (ideally wirelessly like WiGig) docked with a screen / keyboard / mouse.I really liked the idea of Continuum from Microsoft, and I really, really hope Apple is working on something similar...
Unfortunately, realistically, I don’t expect this to happen before at least 2022 / 2023 for the technology and prices to make it feasible at a reasonable price, and the advent of Storage Class Memory (SCM) may even be needed to have all-in-one smartphone / computer really take off...
ksec - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Personally I am looking for 2TB SSD that is cheap and performance doesn't matter, it could be SATA 3 speed, so 500MB/s. Basically on one hand I want a class of SSD to absolutely push the limit of PCI-E 4.0 and 5.0, on 4 lane basis that is 8GB/s or 16GB/s. On the other hand I want an SSD that pushes capacity over everything else ( Endurance and Reliability being reasonable of coz ), and even 160MB/s I would have been fine because of the response time.But I think most NAND manufacturers know capacity is what everyone looks at, so they decide to sell us faster drive instead.
DyneCorp - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
Reliability? Explain what reliability is to you regarding SSDs.Soulkeeper - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
I wonder about the heat density of this stuff. I mean look how hot HBM2 memory runs, I'm guessing we will see a lot more SSDs and flash drives failing after 1-2yrs ... or failing after being used anywhere but in an air conditioned house.Soulkeeper - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
Those layers in the middle are bound to be well insulated. Not good.