Meh. Sometimes that just means analysts wanted even better news. I would never take a stock's movement on quarterly report day to mean much by itself. The fact that they're making money is fantastic. A company with a positive P/E ratio. Also, whether or not it was the best use of the cash is debatable, paying down a big chunk of debt is also encouraging. I like it.
The problem is investors and unreasonable and pumped their stock too high. Its P/E is more than 260! Compare that to Apple (26) or INTC (14) or NVDA (66), all of which have much lower P/E. The assumption is AMD is going to have explosive growth, and if they don't deliver the stock drops.
That's really not fair to the ppl that make great products and try to succeed.
P/E isn't a useful measure when your 'E' is very small. After all, the P/E when your earnings are 0 are infinite.
Some people use forward P/E, which for AMD is much more reasonable.
It's not at all unfair to the employees. They've all benefited hugely from the run-up that's already occurred. Stock options from 5 years ago are worth a fortune today; there are probably quite a few AMD millionaires minted in the last year.
A very wise man said that in the short run, the stock market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a scale.
You do realise even if they had double the Net Income, their current P/E for this year would still be 130? Even without paying down the debt they are no anywhere close to doubling of Net income this year.
Basically on a market median of P/E 25, the market right now is expecting 10x growth from AMD in the very near future. And they are NO where near that number.
The article clearly says that AMD is focused on paying down debt. In the last quarter alone, they paid off $524m in debt - 100% of that isn't "off the top" of net income, since they'd presumably have had to pay interest and some principal on it - but it's not too far off. If AMD had the same quarter next year (with debt at/near 0), they'd have had 2.5x net income and a ~100 P/E ratio - still high, but arguably in the same range as NVIDIA (~66), while AMD arguably has better growth prospects (since NVIDIA's growth largely comes from growing the size of the pie, while AMD can grow by getting a bigger slice AND growing the pie).
That alone doesn't explain the P/E ratio, but that's not the only number that matters for a stock (though for some investors, it might be the most important number).
Not necessarily a good thing. It is curious as to why they would pay a debt now when the interest rate is at historic low, when they can generate 45% of gross margin.
Unless they have something specific in mind to invest cash into that will grow revenue or margins faster than their debts accrue interest, it makes a lot of sense to pay off that debt while the going is good - regardless of interest rates.
P/E is a very relevant benchmark. If your E is very small (or zero), then you are not making (much) money, and that is a very relevant point for most investors. Always exceptions, but P/S or P/E(forward) really ignore a key point - is the company making any money? As to how many AMD employees got stock options 5 years ago, or how many employees in the tech industry are still with the company 5 years later is another, but interesting, discussion
It would be relevant if AMD paid share dividends, but they don't, and never have. So the only relevant thing about how much profit they make is probably how much tax they pay.
im not sure of its the same thing, or same idea but : " Sanders gave each one of his employees $100 as they walked out of the door during AMD's first $1M quarter. AMD was also the first US company to implement a cash profit-sharing employee compensation program, where employees would regularly get profit checks of $1,000 or more. " to say they never did, may not be completely true
No, not the same thing. What you're describing sounds like an informal employee bonus scheme. What I'm talking about are the dividends shareholders (not necessarily employees) get from owning a companies shares. If the company in question actually pays them that is. AMD don't, and never have.
That is the case with nearly all big stocks. The uh, "P/E" is really high, which basically means people are throwing big pallets of money at shares, the number itself means absolutely nothing.
I've yet to actually see a real adult analysis of how & why a stock moves according to major shareholder activities, because it's impossible. It goes up when people buy it, but people are buying it without knowing the first thing about it. I guess we can just keep on pretending the stock market is real forever...
Absolutely agreed on paying down the debt. They managed to pull off the Ryzen, Epyc (Rome), Threadripper, mobile 4000 series parts, and the 5000 series GPUs AND paid down a big chunk of debt AND still showed a good profit to boot.
I'm quite impressed at how well they're executing right now, kudos to them.
See now these are the kind of realistic, level headed comments that just totally sums up what has happened with AMD over the last year. They are just firing on all cylinders right now, and the best part is we win as consumers.
Lets not just give Kudos to them, but both INTC and NVDA as well for providing them with examples of well executed companies to strive to be, I really think they learned a lot from the competition, especially in their CPU's. Also, the fact that they listened to the market and consumers.
To be honest, I knew they would do well as I have have friends working for them, but they have exceeded even my expectations in terms of raw execution.
Now they just need to start selling the high margin shit by the boatloads.
Agreed, mostly. AMD has been on the ball for most of the year, the only real thing that I have seen that would be of concern is the fallout from the 5600 XT VBIOS debacle and even that will likely get smoothed over within the next few months (if only because the effects to DIY will be minimal).
We shall see what the trade wind have for this year.
Only speculators buy the stock then dump weeks later...;) Up and down share price volatility, especially in microcosm, tells us almost nothing about a given company. Only amateurs react to every little up and down, etc.
Interesting that Intel is hit with yet another major CPU architecture vulnerability that affects at least everything Intel shipped in the last five years--object lesson on the perils of milking, I guess.
I bought AMD at $8 and sold it when it got to the $30's. Then I bought Tesla in the $200's and sold it a few weeks ago in the $500's. Now it's trading at $650.
Their forecasts are foolish and neglect things like seasonality. Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 makes more sense than expecting that sales will be generally steady with some blips upward for product launches. When revenues come from selling products, then the buying cycle for buyers needs to be understood.
If there are a lot of computer sales for "back to school" and for the holiday season, you have to understand that the OEM computer makers need to buy parts well before that time, on the order of six to nine months. Laptop chips may be sold to OEMs in February but not available to customers until May or June(three months for the OEM to prepare new product models plus QA), then the products go out through the distribution channel to the sellers. It's not as quick as parts that are sold directly to consumers(desktop processors).
Seasonality makes sense when talking about established players that have low variations in market share. Expectations from AMD are higher given the hype (justified) around their products. They are supposed to be improving with every quarter. A lot of folks believe that AMD can produce as much as the customers are willing to order, which is not as straightforward as it seems.
I'm kinda confused by what you're saying. They definitely take seasonality into account as evidenced by the fact that their forecasts were lower than what amd reported for q4. It's just that what they had expected amd to forecast for q1 is lower than what amd actually forecasted
I don't think that is terrible for a segment that traditionally doesn't seem have a lot of room for growth. I feel that many datacenter and enterprise buyers are hesitant to change quickly, and are not buying new systems every year. Or if they are buying systems every year it's to replace what they already have.
This is so true. We are putting together a large PO now, but it will probably end up being for Intel systems. Why? Because our previous systems are all Intel, and moving to Cascade Lake from Skylake is super easy from a qual process. And moreover while we're "enterprise" we aren't *so* enterprise that our vendor will give us a bunch of machines to evaluate.
So while I'm confident we'd get far more bang for our buck with an Epyc 2, our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort.
That means I have another year to find some Epyc systems to get in-house to benchmark with our load. Next January's PO might be for AMD.
This is dumb. At this moment, an hybrid of AMD and Intel platforms should be used to prevent having to rely on a sole source supplier. Companies refusing to change are going to pay the price in the future.
Many people in charge in corporate environments are clueless, and don't believe in even testing something new, even if there is a huge potential to reduce expenses by 20-30 percent.
I'm not sure calling it dumb it correct but at a larger scale you are exactly right. For a smaller enterprise it won't matter that much because they don't have the buying power in the first place. For large data centers like Amazon it will be a huge boon to pit vendors against each other.
"our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort."
Sounds like a bad IT director. His #1 goal should be getting the best machines for the company as possible with the lowest TCO and cost as possible that fit the performance target. If his number one goal is to be as lazy as possible, he should get the boot.
Ah, I can see you've never worked in enterprise IT.
The goal for enterprise IT is "what can we get that is the least stress for our customers, providing the most stability, and iterating on performance". Validating a completely new architecture for the enterprise takes ages. If you're doing your job properly at least.
The IT director who "just buys the new hotness" ends up out of a job really quickly when the unexpected problems bite.
Never said anything about buying the new hotness. You just assumed that and preceded to make a personal attack based on that assumption.
Have you read your own comment by the way? Has Intel's security patches not provided significant stress for enterprise customers? Stability? Intel certainly hasn't provided that. I explicitly remember some games having to rent more cloud servers due to Intel's security patches reducing performance and the downtime those cause due to the reduced performance causing customers to lag out.
Iterating on performance? If you bought Intel you actually went reverse after the security patches.
According to your own comment, companies should very well be evaluating AMD as a option. I don't expect it to happen overnight but we should be hearing more along those lines.
FYI you completely forgot about TCO, which is very important Mr. Internet expert.
You mocking someone and calling them "mr internet expert" when you really sound like you're just talking out of your ass is hilarious. Like, come on dont play, you ain't never even seen a server homie we all know it just chill. You over here talking about you "heard some games had to rent more cloud servers." That's incredible, hilarious, kinda adorable even. Stay in your lane, Get on back to Apex or whatever lol.
Can someone give me the run down on validation? Intel and AMD are both x86/64. Heck amd created the instruction set for 64 bit. Why would validation take months? if it works on Intel, it should run on AMD and vice-versa.
1. Find hardware or configuration issues before being deployed
2. Help ensure the product being deployed is dependable
3. Test integration with current systems
4. Ensure compatibility and performance with the software or platform in use
How long validation takes depends entirely on the company and software in use. In the case of something like a cloud provider, it's the sheer complexity of the platform and the number of servers that take time. You can certainly get under 2 months for smaller projects though, although you do need time to ensure dependability beforehand.
On Windows, moving to AMD should be a sure thing. IIS, SQL Server is not going to require much validation for web hosts. For linux, I could understand why validation might be done. For example that random # generator that effected Destiny 2.
There's also a shortage of EPYC hardware available, at least for those of us trying to buy smaller systems (8-16 core) in tiny quantities (1-5 per year).
Gigabyte server boards are back-ordered due to "a lack of chipset availability". And they've discontinued the previous generation boards already.
Supermicro rackmount servers are lacking in features, and backordered. And they won't mix-n-match chassis with non-SM boards anymore.
We bought two 7001-series servers last year. We're still waiting for a 7002-series server to arrive (maybe end of Feb).
(Could be just availability in Canada, but all out local and national suppliers are saying the same thing: backordered.)
The problem is that most server people are very conservative... they won't touch a product until the 3rd generation. The fact that Epyc is doing so well right now is a massive vote of confidence by the cloud service providers. The next Epyc chip is where you should expect some incredible uptake because of the TOE advantage that AMD has.
Zen 3 EPYC follow up should be where AMD can build out a 4 x 4 matrix of target markets and win in every box over Intel. Intel's in a world of hurt for the next 18 months.
The same happened last quarter before the stock pass from 35 to 50$. AMD is the most shorted stock in wall street, however it didn't played in the favor of shorters.
contrary to public perception and the audience here, who think data center will save Hard drives, client computing is, has always been, and will continue to be the primary market for semi with data center somewhere invisible in its shadows.
its easy to be impressed with MSRP of flagship xeon's but total transistor volume has always been several orders of mag less than client computing and thus insignificant in a competitive market (especially if the monopoly and price gouging is taken away).
this will become clear when renoir numbers come out in Q2 2020. I also expect intel to lose a lot more than AMD will gain, especially with ARM on Mac and AWS
Paying down debt is critical for AMD at this point. The company has to get into a good financial position where it isn't held back by loans and payments while it has a solid set of products that are attracting business. No one can really predict how the competition will respond and a safety margin of cash along with little debt will help AMD survive if business hits another long rough patch.
Pal, they are 500 Millions in debts, it is less than 1Q revenue at this point. It is like they have a car loan at this point. They never had that much cash since 2006 and nothing seems to indicate this will change anytime soon. They are doing incredibly well for a company that was going under.
Yeah, I know right. I have a few coworkers that have car loans and I feel for them not being able to save up enough to buy outright, but not everyone has a clue how to manage their money so they take on debt like auto and home loans. AMD's case is different though. The company legitimately has had years of hard times in the recent past so the fact that it still carries debt is entirely excusable.
Weird drive-by on people who can't afford to buy stuff outright. Some people are silly with money, sure, but for many of us the choice between getting a car or home loan and not getting one is the choice between having a job and a home or not having them.
some... also dont have the money to buythings like a car or a house outright.. for here.. a single family home starts at 1 million... to say people dont have a clue how to manage money.. is kind of close minded, with out knowing why or the persons situation...
Good on you for making a decent move. I would argue that you still purchsed something that required a loan and it would have been more cost effective to pay cash for a rolling POS. Maintenance is pretty much alway cheaper than a car payment and the recurring loan payment could have also gone into investments and netted you another c (new)ar or two worth of profit, but to each their own.
"Maintenance is pretty much alway cheaper than a car payment"
Maybe, maybe not - and only when you can afford to gamble on time and/or wages lost due to the vehicle being out of action. I have done this myself and come up smelling of rose fertilizer: I was out of work, got a job, bought a banger with a clean bill of health so I could get to my new job, kept having to shell out on "just this once" repairs, and finally had it crap out on me before I'd finished saving for a replacement - meaning I had to borrow money to do that (or lose my job). My attempt to do the smart thing ended up costing me way more than if I'd just got a loan straight away.
As I stated before, your advice is only useful to people who started out in a relatively good position. People aren't all that dumb, they just have different equations to solve than you. See this: https://wiki.lspace.org/mediawiki/Sam_Vimes_Theory...
Look at the numbers again, Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2019. It was a very nice improvement in the numbers for AMD, and it is only the year to year that was flat due to certain segments that were down(console chips being at end of cycle). The numbers for Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019 will be a big improvement due to Zen2 based chips continuing to sell very well, and the new GPUs will also help.
some people are simply clueless and have tunnel vision, this time in 2016 the very survival of AMD as a Business was being doubted it was sinking under huge debt and heavily discounting outdated and slow hardware, without the console sales am sure it would have gone under, its turnaround to the position it is in now is nothing short of legendary and with the continuing issues Intel is experiencing along with very strong new product pipelines for AMD I for one will be adding to my Portfolio, so far its been very good for me.
It's going to take another 3-4 quarters before the impact on Intel of AMD's continuing growth actually hits the Intel P&Ls to a visible extent...;) The larger and more suffused with cash a company is the longer it takes to see the result of playing second fiddle on its balance sheets, as there are a host of bookkeeping tricks available. Most companies in Intel's position hope that before that time comes they can field competitive products and services once again. AMD has been on this roll for at least three years (much longer if we count development) now and AMD product innovation and improvement shows no sign of slacking off for the foreseeable future. Intel isn't just gunning for one AMD architecture, but for a series of steadily improving AMD architectures--and that's with CPUs. With GPUs I don't see Intel doing much, frankly. Interesting times ahead!
It will take far longer than that, AMD does not have access to the manufacturing capabilities at this time to make a sizable dent in Intel's market share. There are very few plants capable of producint the 7 and 7+ nm nodes they are using for their new products and there is a lot of competition to get in there. Until there are more fab plants that they can access to it will be a really tough go to bite into that share in any significant way. Though they are finally putting up a good fight and need to take advantage of their lead while they can, Intel will be hitting back hard sooner than later so AMDneeds to get their house in order before that happens or they might find themselves right back where they were a decade ago.
if your old enough to remember AMDs 64 bit chips wiped the floor with Intel for a while and they got very rich very quick and like Intel at the moment probably had a few years of complacency, Intel brought out core2duo and it literally put AMD in the doldrums for a good 10 years and with the added efforts of ATI which they bought meant cuts, nil budgets etc to the point they bled cash for years, but remember they were cash rich FABs etc just like Intel, this Ryzen generational step may well be the equivalent blow to Intel from AMD but I doubt it Intel is more diverse, it will however have a significant effect in the next year or so especially when the Commercial markets start to move over which they will.
"Yes. In 2019, we launched our new architecture in GPUs, it's the RDNA architecture, and that was the Navi based products. You should expect that those will be refreshed in 2020 - and we'll have a next generation RDNA architecture that will be part of our 2020 lineup"
So - expect the 5500/5600/5700's to become a rebadged 6500/6600/6700's - with a RDNA2 Radeon RX 6900 XT on top?
I love AMD, but Polaris was used for a long while - so can we assume the current Navi chips will be too?
That's what I took from it. I don't think AMD's current chip design strategies can facilitate top-to-bottom product refreshes anymore. It'll be interesting to see whether that changes as their financial situation improves.
This is a much better Report than the usual one from Anandtech, I was wondering. Turns out it was Dr. Ian doing the wonderful work!
On the report itself. I am not happy with this performance. But this also shows how small is the "prosumer market ". Most of it are now in Server, Notebook, And Business Desktop. All of these are Long term contract and lock down as explained. But AMD are not hammering hard enough. On the other hand I think as much as I hate Intel they are defending those ties pretty damn well.
I believe the highest quarter on record for margin was 56.8 or 58.6%. IIRC it's either 2001 or 2005/2006. They made about a billion that year.
AMD made about a billion NET that year IIRC. That was back when they knew how to PRICE a winner. Currently the company is run by idiots that do not know how to take advantage of winning products, no competition, less watts/heat. Pricing at anything more than 10% discount is retarded (you are winning for crying out loud) and even pricing at exactly the price of the other guy is questionable when they other guy is facing shortages and fab problems.
As a stock I just dumped ALL AMD, as it is priced for perfection, which currently would be somewhere between 1.2-1.6B. That is NET INCOME for the Q, not revenue! So yeah, SELL. I did Friday...LOL. Predicting a wishy washy year is also down to BAD MANAGEMENT. You priced your entire year for failure and well, you have it. We should be seeing 1B net income Q's every Q with 15% more silicon (heck should see that TODAY and 2B net income Q's if that 15% is really going to double AMD's silicon at tsmc). They booked the entire extra 30,000 wafers per month TSMC will have supposedly. Currently 110K wafers and AMD is 4th out of top 5 customers. I can't see how AMD would be over 30K already (not with apple, HS, and Qcom in front of them), so that should mean doubling (more actually by far at TSMC it seems) of AMD's silicon pool from TSMC right? No too much coming from GF these days, so that should allow AMD to double revenue (easily) if you are using that silicon to attack HIGHER margin stuff and pricing them correctly to begin with.
AMD will get punished for this Q as they should, and for bad year predictions. You should be predicting double revenue by xmas 2020 or you are just stupid with pricing. That is why analysts are pissed. How can you NOT guide UP massively with an intel shortage and products that anyone with a brain wants vs. Intel, and no end in sight for the fab lead for AMD now. TSMC 5nm is on track (better than 7nm track), so nothing will change for Intel until tsmc 3nm maybe. Someone please explain why they are NOT making 1B a quarter with all this data? You are dumb AMD.
"DK: I don't think I've actually said that - I said some of our graphics products are below corporate average from a gross margin standpoint, in addition to the semi-custom have been below average."
You're fired.
"As it relates to the pricing environment, we're expecting a competitive pricing environment, and that's the way we built our model. We've always expected that the competition will be very aggressive on both the CPU as well as the GPU side - that is part of the inherent model or for the company."
LOL, you're fired. YOU made the price environment suck by starting a war that caused both Intel and NVDA to drop pricing immediately, instead of higher pricing that would have caused them to sit and wait to see how many you would take in sales, THEN respond with price cuts IF NEEDED. YOU, however, chose to price so low EVERYONE had to CUT in most cases even before you launched! That is Fing stupid on it's own, never mind doing it in a shortage of silicon...holy cow you are dumb! YOU ARE FIRED. I couldn't fire you so I fired your stock. I could point out even more stupid comments and excuses (silicon going to barely double digit margin products, fing stupid if that silicon could sell in a 1000% margin server chip!) but nobody at AMD is listening anyway. Avoid the stock until they pull their head out of their butts and price what the market will BEAR, not their dumb models. Jeez, did they hire climate change people to predict pricing? We know they can't predict today's weather, let alone 10-50yrs from now...LOL. Do I sound angry? HEH. Yeah, I'd like AMD to act like a real company that is working for shareholders. Heck, I'd be ok with simply RATIONAL pricing in this market. But you went freaking stupid with pricing. Servers same story (even worse). Intel was expected to slap a 25-50K price on 56c. I expect under 10k now that you price your FASTER chip with LESS watts at 7K...YOU ARE FIRED. That should be 50K until Intel gets their 56 core out the door in QUANTITY. IF they priced it at 50K I wouldn't have dropped my price a dime from 50K until you did! What part of making money do you guys NOT GET? IDIOTS.
Intel set a record because they moved all available silicon they could sell to SERVER and HEDT. This is the RATIONAL way to operate if SHORT on your products. Apologize to customers but do what SAVES YOU, just like Intel did. AMD needs to stop acting like a homeless beggar, and start pricing like a winner.
It is comic they just had their HIGHEST revenue on record for a Q, yet they made more for the year with basically 1/2 this revenue for the year a decade ago...LOL. Intel pulling 20B net income from 80% of the market on 70B revenue TTM. AMD, 6B revenue but only 209m NET INCOME TTM. Can anyone see the problem here? The person asking questions is right, why are you not in the 50%+ margins (and I think he means 55% not 50! INtel/NVDA at 64%)? Heck dump consoles and we should be asking why are you not in the 60% range! You are BARELY breaking even on the best products you've had since well over a decade ago when you charged rational pricing with 50%+ margins and REAL net income. Last 3yrs, 4B revenue, 5B, now 6B. WOW, that's awesome, oh wait...Profits for that extra 2B revenue grew NONE. Uhh, YOU ARE FIRED. For the love of god AMD, FIRE someone! YOU are your own enemy. Nobody at Intel or NV wants to lower pricing, they constantly try to hike a new product on TOP of old. YOU SHOULD TOO if at all possible (and it is POSSIBLE in a shortage!). IDIOTS. I could go on for days on AMD stupidity, but I have to find a new stock to buy now...LOL. Good luck if you didn't sell last week.
Is that a joke? At this moment, there is rumor of Intel at TSMC and global foundries. AMD just consolidated their business for good. They are not going anywhere and the stock IS NOT collapsing and it's back at 47$ proving the valuation was quite close to the actual stock price.
Impressive. To summarise: you rage-quit on AMD stock, which you agree is going to go up, because you object to them not price-gouging when they had the chance? Yes, it seems like you've reached the pinnacle of rationality. Congratulations.
Now if you don't mind, I'm going to return to financially backing the company that seems to be performing quite well without bending its customers over. Y'know, building up good-will and reputation and all those other things that don't appear on a balance sheet, but are sometimes considered to be useful to think about.
It's so tight to see this weirdos completely naked rage at AMD for NOT viciously raping their customer. My man is straight up giving the pursuit of wealth a horrifically bad name lol. Holy hell I hope he never gets hold of any kind of meaningful power, even if its just, like, being a fast food manager.
LOL. It means a lot. Not everything as there are a TON of numbers you should be looking at if you're serious or care about losses. The PE today tells me run for the hills with a bad year prediction that won't drop it. They should be at ~65 PE today with this Q report, and heading for teens with next Q or two as they ramp higher margin stuff (64c hedt/servers will do it). But it looks like they may be planning ramps of console crap instead of REAL chips ;) So single or barely double digit crap instead of REAL margin products that make REAL NET INCOME. TTM of 200m NET on 6B Rev in your best product year in a decade should have all of management fired...LOL. Your $500 console isn't worth squat compared to a 7K chip (even that massively priced wrong), so why do you keep chasing poor people AMD?
Stop reading tech sites for stock analysis. READ STOCK sites. Problem solved. Make sure it's not just some dumb contributor (like me getting paid nothing, knowing nothing about me?...LOL Trust but VERIFY everything in money), instead of someone REAL with credentials and years of a record you can look at. If you want to make money in semi, you should probably have access to something like JPR/MPR or you will be doing a lot more work than needed (or translate a lot of asian stuff). 100K in NVDA today will get you 20K free in the next year. JPR at $5K is cheap if you do it with a few people from say, your work, who also trade stocks or MPR for a year at $1500 ($375 split 4 ways with co-workers). Never mind if you knew what you were doing a few years ago and bought at ~12-22 like we did (but ran way early...ROFL)...Heck nvida was $150 in the last 6 months multiple times and over 1/2 off a year ago again. PE and a few other numbers are all you needed to run at the highs ~year ago. NVDA/MU/AMD should all be stocks people run in and out of every few years if numbers allow it. They all basically long term channel all the time. Between the 3 of them you can be in or out of something making wads yearly. They usually don't all run in tandem for more than a short period of time. Look at a 5yr-10yr chart on all of them. If you're reading tech sites (product into) and stock sites (reports etc!), it is easy to make money on these and many more every few years in not yearly (they all have cycles to some extent easily seen. and they all have hype stories too). IE, NV about to release new gen on new fab tech and profit already reversed and will likely reach old net levels this Q and set records from here on for a bit at least (AMD has to answer with big navi and win or no stopping the train). If you thought it was worth $290 before it's not hard to see $300 coming this time. I'll say likely more in a few weeks probably as I do expect a record, but wouldn't be on it this time. The next Q will have 3 months of 7nm in it probably (piling up launch chips now no doubt), and we will see a record for net income. I'll be shocked if we don't see $300 by Q1 or before next year (I expect more, but will wait for product info before saying buy on that). Only a war or nature can derail this IMHO.
Watch for NV's PE to go to teens shortly as NET income goes back to records. I predict a record for the quarter after next (if not this coming Q). Sell AMD (last week...LOL) and buy NVDA. Collect 20%+ in a year or less. You're welcome. AMD will lose to whatever NV puts out on 7nm watt/heat/noise and perf wise, so clear for a year from NVDA. Intel not on the map until maybe rev 3. Rev 1 Intel is already dead on arrival...LOL. See linus facepalm vid recently about their gpu. Raja is not capable of making a gpu that beats NV engineers (or money?, both?). AMD keeps choosing HBM which kills every big consumer card margin also. If you choose expensive and useless, you make nothing. NV went GDDR5x and rockets to record quarters because it was EASY to make, in quantity, and fast enough for victory without risks of shortages or costs! SMART. AMD should not be using HBM unless the product actually warrants the use for REAL. If the competition is beating you with cheaper stuff you're doing it wrong (stop using HBM on anything consumer!). Repeating said mistake should=FIRED.
Again, not saying PE is everything, just one of many things you should be looking at. If you think it is absolutely meaningless, you should not be buying stocks. You only need a few numbers with that PE in this case to tell you RUN like mad from AMD (for a while? LOL), they don't deserve current valuation with future predictions they made for a year! In a year I'll be wondering why you are at 200+PE still apparently. I'll have to see if the next round of products are priced FAR better before I go back into AMD. If they had not priced so dumb for the last year, this whole report would have been massively different and so would the PE, and the stock would not dive on your Q report.
It moves for a reason, lots of them if you know what you're looking at and it isn't hard to predict given all the data you have per Q on companies today (and their competition). I'm reading text not even in my language much of the time for shipping info, fab info, etc etc. You can literally read to death on any stock these days. If you pick badly today 90% of the time it's lack of homework. No trailing stop on NVDA for a while (290? maybe then depending on AMD response to NVDA march gpus) :) I expect 7nm to push NV well above 1.2B net for a Q shortly, and that will cause $300 on that report or weeks after. Nothing to stop new records coming and teens PE ratio. AMD on the other hand, all baked in, according to themselves. You can see it in the questions too...But, but, margin, uh, er, console, uh, all new products, uh, what, why, how...uhmmm....? Where 1B Q net? NV pulls 1B a quarter now on GPU only (tegra makes nothing still), do the math on AMD. You are pricing wrong. NO, looking at Intel, market share for all, you are retarded AMD. The guy should have just asked if you are mentally handicapped or something yammering "how could you F this up?" as he walks off. :) Fire your "modeler" for pricing. Revenue up 30% next year, but pricing? You added 2B in revenue the last 2yrs and gained nearly NOTHING in NET INCOME. Last 3yrs and TTM 209m last 3yrs 337,000, 43,000, -497,000. Why the drop TTM? Aren't you ramping all your new stuff? WTF?
I'm going to have to see some price hikes at this point or the next rev pricing leaked. I feel like they'll be worth current value (well, last weeks value) in a year. So not much point in the next 12 months when I can make 20% in NV easily etc. Maybe I change that opinion as we find out what is going to happen with apple's share of TSMC 7nm silicon in more details. Sold most MU until the Q report too. If they don't guide much higher (back to old levels) they will get hit on the report for a recovery that STILL hasn't come quite yet. It's coming (mass profits again) but you can only promise and not deliver a few times before they make you pay even if the reality is changing just around the corner. Big fund managers do this on purpose every chance they get and jump right back in after they tank it and force small runs on a stock so to speak. Long termers like me just ride that crap out usually.
Sorry to disappoint you. I have never worked in fast food. That is a job for teenagers, illegals and people with no skills.
You don't seem to understand what a stockholder is. Naked rage? Weirdo? Raping their customer would be charging massively more than the competition. In this case we literally have the ceo saying they are charging below market value. You are a retard if you don't get the point here.
You don't seem to understand "what the market will bear" and that it is exactly what ALL companies are trying to guess if run by good management. If you are "raping" your customers, by definition you would not SELL a product to many people correct? Only the people who could “afford” to get raped would buy correct? It sounds like you are just sad you're poor and a probably working in fast food and have to beg for cheaper prices :) Start following my stock advice and you'll get FREE PC parts. Like the guy with the FREE CAR in this comment section. He's not complaining about the cpu prices, as it's free anyway along with his next 6 cars apparently (nice work!). Why are you still paying for parts? LOL.
IE, if Intel was raping customers, they would not set record quarter after record quarter correct? I mean, who buys rape? You don't seem to understand the point of owning stock...ROFL.
Wow, no point in calling you ignorant. You are straight up stupid. You think I'm weird for commenting ABOUT the stock, on a stock report mind you, while YOU just attack me and act like the article and the data I put out doesn't even exist :) Don't think you're stupid? OK. Yeah, stupid is, as stupid does. But I just believe you're stupid period :)
Someone like you leads to 20T in debt. Someone like me leads to profit, as close to what they market will bear as I can get :) PERIOD. That is your job as a company leader. The market should dictate how "NICE" you need to be, not your dumb CEO. I didn't say rip people off, I said charge what you are WORTH or change your product mix. You are just too dumb to get it.
Dumping junk is not ripping people off. Switching to a higher margin mix is just good business if silicon is short. Stop working at a fast food joint and none of these prices are raping you. I can afford Titan's every year (waste of money, but I can) and I'm not rich; at least not my definition of it anyway. Do you buy stock to lose money? Again, stupid. At least learn to debate: Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Graham_(program... For the lazy among us, and fast food managers too. Ah wait, they are by definition lazy, as in too lazy to find better work or skills. I want to be a fast food manager when I grow up...Said nobody.
You're giving smart people a bad name...Wait, you didn't claim to be one. OK, all forgiven. So no comment on the data then...Your loss if you ignore it. I lobbed a grenade to see if anyone could stop it from blowing up, yet you didn't get it. Consider my post a trump tweet, or "trial balloon" against my data. He floats a balloon to start a conversation about important stuff, then moves to where he really wanted us to go to begin with as people get it. Smart traders realize what just happened (hopefully gain insight from it, good or bad). Thanks to all for removing any FUD I had about selling...LOL. If you follow my posts (here and elsewhere, stock sites etc), you have been making money time after time. PERIOD.
Jeez, we have presidential candidates (and all fake news, MM) calling the current president a nazi, racist, murderer, comparing him to actual mass murderers, and every other name in the book, unfit for office and on and on. All of this despite the highest economy ever, lowest unemployment for all, highest stock market ever, TWO trade deals nobody could get done, moved embassy, recognized Israel, fighting Iran/China/Russia with ECONOMY rather than war etc etc. But you have a problem with harping on dumb CEO's when a bad report warrants it (I'm not alone, it went down for a reason)? ROFLMAO. SJW's crack me up. For the record though, I'd rather trump make everyone pissed and America rich (I get richer then too), than make everyone happy and USA broke so you can feel good as I couldn’t care less about your feelings. Need a safe space now? LOL. So tight (WTF? So 12yr old) to see all these SJW's attack me and have NOTHING to say about data (in or out of the article...).
I made money. Did you? Not even trying? Why are you here? Go back to reading reviews, this is a quarterly report for stock holders. You just keep working, I'll keep trying to make my money work for me so I can avoid being you. ;) I'll take weird over dumb. I'll take rape over bankruptcy too :) I can recover from rape, not so sure about the bankruptcy. If I have money I can afford therapy for the rape right? ROFL. Some SJW just blew a gasket...One less SJW? Yippee. Back to stock hunting, and bartiromo about to come on :) You've wasted enough of my time and I can type 50 +wpm (60+ on a good day).
What an asbolute pile. Some highlights for those who understandably don't want to wade through this junk:
"...they may be planning ramps of console crap instead of REAL chips..." "...why do you keep chasing poor people AMD?" "Sorry to disappoint you. I have never worked in fast food. That is a job for teenagers, illegals and people with no skills." "You are a retard if you don't get the point here." "I can afford Titan's every year (waste of money, but I can)..." "You're giving smart people a bad name...Wait, you didn't claim to be one. OK, all forgiven." "Consider my post a trump tweet, or "trial balloon" against my data." "Jeez, we have presidential candidates (and all fake news, MM) calling the current president a nazi, racist, murderer..." "I can recover from rape, not so sure about the bankruptcy."
In short, standard Trump supporter: unwarranted confidence in own intelligence, inability to stay on topic, thinks bragging about being awesome is the same as being awesome, thinks being offensive is the same as being smart, projecting like IMAX.
My favourite bit was where he came to a tech site to rant about stocks and then told people not to come to tech sites for stock info. A++ goonery.
Thanks for the summation, Spunjji. I find you to be correct. Incidentally, TheJian, if someone doesn't start "chasing poor people" then poor people will not have computers. And I at least value that moral quality of AMD, which they are sadly loosing over time. :cry:
AMD could be the largest TSMC customer on 7nm in 2020. Apple, HS and Qcomm has moved on to 5nm for new chips so their volumes will shift away from N7P and N7FF+.
Agreed, I think AMD will be #1 on 7nm at tsmc this year (well at the end that is). I just hope all the silicon goes to higher margin kit, rather than single or barely double digit crap (console like junk). No point in wasting silicon on $100-125 parts that make you $10-15 if you're a player like AMD vs. NV/Intel. You should be making the high margin parts only until it doesn't sell (see Intel), then make junk to add to your bottom line because that is all that is left.
I really wish AMD had passed on console like NV, and for the same reasons (let Intel or someone else take that crap on). IT robs from your CORE R&D. It did exactly what NV said it would; killed AMD profits for years, cost fabs, land, engineers, etc. They gave it all up to claim a console victory or two that keeps stealing R&D design after design...They could have been a contender in the cpu race years ago (instead of basically giving up for 5-6yrs), and should not have been dominated by NV for ages either. I hope they choose wisely for the new silicon. They claim gpus/cpus (not socs/apu junk), but we'll see.
$52+ last week. Hope people sold. Likely more down for most stocks as anti-trumpers try to kill his market over this virus crap, fake impeachment etc. Good to be in safer stocks (with no debt) with room to run and good report coming (nvda for example for a while, no loyalty to either stock...should hit 300+ easily in 12mo, likely far less time). I think NVDA will set a record this Q or next and head to 300 again. Easy money if you don't mind the virus ride. The Flu kills ~2500 a year in usa, so miles from this still but that won't stop trump haters from trying to down the market as usual on anything they can. Middle class got 40% on their 401k but dems keep trying to take it down or give it away before you get it. They give it to illegals, welfare, free college, etc etc...Whatever they can do to bankrupt you and put you on welfare for life is their goal (and voting for said welfare for life). Too bad 1/2 the public still watches fake news, although more appear to be waking up as ratings for impeachment etc show complete tanking for dems. Even the debates have terrible ratings.
"I really wish AMD had passed on console like NV" They didn't "pass" on it - they lost the business because of their constant gouging.
"Likely more down for most stocks as anti-trumpers try to kill his market over this virus crap, fake impeachment etc." LOL
"Middle class got 40% on their 401k but dems keep trying to take it down or give it away before you get it. They give it to illegals, welfare, free college, etc etc..." Can an admin get a ban on this assclown now, please? He's very obviously just here to spread disinformation.
What job? If you make enough money on your money, you don't need a job. Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. You didn't even get to level 2 IMHO. Nice work. This is what you get today from our education system. Abject failure to communicate on anything other than SJW crap.
You should worry about your own kids. Sounds like you can't afford them and you are worried about mine (you don't even know if I have any or even care to). Your comment is dumb. Who is worried about a job in this economy? There are more jobs than people to fill them...Whatever. If you have skills, jobs are not your problem. I have not done more than 2 interviews for a job in my field (more than 2 decades, not counting my PC biz, no need to interview for your own biz...ROFL) I've done more than 2 interviews for a single job, but not more than two places before getting work (4 interviews for an IT job these days! IT interviews can suck...LOL). I landed my last job on the phone, with no need for my interview (the other 10 on the call had to do one (more?)...ROFL). Skills, recommendations, and a good resume will set you apart from the crowd every time.
Not sure what job you think is on offer here. You seem as retarded as the people I'm talking about. This is a financial report, not a job offer, and WTH does this have to do with kids? With 1m you can make 50K a year easy in the market. You don't need a job if you do your homework. You don't even have to really do homework to make that. Dividends can basically get your there if you're ok with this amount and lazy, or heck just buy Berkshire and call it a day. Don't have 340K? Buy the lower shares, same story, just no voting rights. I hope your kids are smarter than you appear to be.
Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. It's not my fault you don't get what a Q report is or how to discuss it's contents...LOL.
"Only I can read the future in the entrails. Everyone else is dumb because they look at them and see only chicken guts, blood, and shit; but I, a brain genius, can divine the true meaning and tell the future (once the things have already happened, no guarantees of accuracy even then)".
Damn homie you got some major brain worms over there. Just squishing and wriggling around, writhing in the slop of your freakish contempt and misery. Anyway, as a consumer, I'M SO STOKED THAT THEY DECIDED TO PRICE LOW LOL. I dont care at all about stocks or weirdos like you who's only concern on earth is Profits at any Cost. Sincerely, I hope the workers at whatever shitty you business you run rise up and take all your shit lol.
This is a discussion of their financial report...LOL. IF you don't care about stocks, why the heck are you reading this article?
I'm weird for liking money? LOL. OK. Profits at any cost? NO, AMD has never made a dime in the LIFE of their company. They have sold nearly everything they could to stay afloat. Fabs, land, layoffs of 30% over the last decade etc. Your problem is all you do is read reviews. I'm interested in making money (duh!) and the company LIVING rather than bankrupt.
Not one comment about the state of the company. ROFL.
Seriously though I checked out after the ableist slur in paragraph 2. If you need to be pointlessly insulting to make your point with any weight, maybe it's because the point has no weight on its own?
Finance posts always bring out those who know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
AMD needed to move past its recent reputation as a second-class competitor - largely, it has done so, at least in CPU - and give those who dropped them in the past (or never even tried) a good reason to give them a chance, especially in larger enterprises. Now they have a foot in the door at all levels, they can wiggle it further open. Thankfully clouds are making major investments, helped along in part by Intel's problems of the last two years - the gift that keeps on giving (we still haven't seen it fully-realized in some test suites, but that will defer the bad news only for so long).
Spoken like someone who doesn't own stocks or know how to read a balance sheet/Q report. No argument with the data...Sounds like a democrat...ROFL.
If you are rich, you BUY the foot in the door. Ask Intel. 3B slide of what they will blow to hurt AMD who as the slide noted only made 300mil (.3B in the slide...LOL). Reviews prove you're a competitor, no need to discount your crap unless it is, well, crap. No point in getting a foot in the door if you make nothing doing it.
Finance posts bring a few people who actually get it (because we trade this stuff! Or want company X to succeed), and a ton of people like you with NOTHING to add to the conversation. I know the value of nothing, it's equal to your post :) I know the cost of fools like you. Bankruptcy. AMD had to sell everything they owned to get here. There is nothing left to sell. At some point you have to realize you are doing it wrong. Sad they keep thinking like losers, largely because they listen to losers ;) See NVDA/INTC Q reports for how to get this right.
SJW BS. blah blah...NO, business is about money (you have to make some to stay in business). AMD is wasting valuable time making people like YOU happy instead of shareholders. No point in being in until they make bank that is rational for their share price. IF they don't start doing that, you will see another plummet. I'm out for quite a while now. Extra silicon not coming until later this year, so dead money until we find out if it's going to crap (console type junk at no margin), or higher margin stuff like HEDT/server/big gpu.
paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Google that then come back :)
Need a safe zone? Wake me when you make a point about data. I'm here for the financial report, don't see anyone attacking the data. That is exactly what I set out to do. See if anyone can argue with my points. NOPE.
Don't agree with your idea of an insult. It is not one IMHO, a retard should not be running your company...LOL. That is just reality. Whatever SJW. Keep on being pointless.
Ian just casually forgot to mention the lackluster guidance in the title although the guidance is the main reason the stock is getting butchered now (7.22% down already).
q1 2018 was 1.65 billlion, but that was the cyrptorush. All gpus were sold out oft he channel. Gross margin in q1 2018 was 36%, gross margin in 2019 was 41%. Gross margin in 2020 is going to be 45%.
@Spunjji O yeah, "guidance aren't that important" for a company with a massive P/E. Then what's their valuation is based on?... Oh wait... Your name sounds familiar. Aren't you the self proclaimed "pro-troll" from the other article? Where's your alts?
Absolutely wonderful to see AMD seeing more success and more importantly for consumers, bringing viable and attractive alternatives to Intel. I for one have been using Intel since my first PC in 1997. However with Intel's overpriced CPUs and not much to show for such a high price, I have a high likelihood of going for an AMD Ryzen. With my expected replacement cycle of 3-4 years, the money saved is worth it and could be spent on maybe better RAMs or other components. Cheers to AMD and hope Intel sees the reality and brings down prices. Core i9-9900K is my choice but it is way too expensive compared with Ryzen 3700x/3800x. Intel's system on CPU and Motherboard simply involves too high a cost for not much benefit in ownership or resale down the line.
As a stock holder, I'm all for debt reduction to free up cash for investment. As long is it doesn't go to exploding the compensation of the executives, I'm good.
Halved their debt! Operating Income up 1000%. That's very impressive! And there seems to be a lot of market share to be gained with Ryzen 4000 coming out to finally compete on relative same space with Intel in the mobile market. 2020 could potentially be a big year for AMD.
It's not only mobile that 7nm APUs could disrupt. Fact is that ~70% of all desktops rely entirely on integrated graphics. Truth is that things like the millions upon millions of 'OEM office boxes' that are sold to corporate buyers every year are probably 99% dependent on iGPUs.
And the desktop versions of 8C/16T 7nm APUs will be gunning for those too.
"There are some discussions about 'pockets of shortages', but as I said before we've been on this steady increase in market share now for the last eight quarters, and we believe we -->gain share in Q4 as well. So I think what we see is just the portfolio getting a lot stronger." Should be "gained" or "will gain".
"LS: I think if you look at it, the predominant factor if you're talking about Q1 guided 46% versus full year at 45%, it's just as we wrap those consoles, there's some there's some impact of that." Might have been her mistake, but you have a duplicate set of words: "LS: I think if you look at it, the predominant factor if you're talking about Q1 guided 46% versus full year at 45%, it's just as we wrap those consoles, there's some impact of that."
<a href="https://www.google.com/">Google</a> paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. It's not my fault you don't get what a Q report is or how to discuss it's contents...LOL.
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ahtoh - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
stock is 5% down thocatavalon21 - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Meh. Sometimes that just means analysts wanted even better news. I would never take a stock's movement on quarterly report day to mean much by itself. The fact that they're making money is fantastic. A company with a positive P/E ratio. Also, whether or not it was the best use of the cash is debatable, paying down a big chunk of debt is also encouraging. I like it.ahtoh - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
I see now the forecast was a bit lighter than expected, hence the fallwebdoctors - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
The problem is investors and unreasonable and pumped their stock too high. Its P/E is more than 260! Compare that to Apple (26) or INTC (14) or NVDA (66), all of which have much lower P/E. The assumption is AMD is going to have explosive growth, and if they don't deliver the stock drops.That's really not fair to the ppl that make great products and try to succeed.
phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
P/E isn't a useful measure when your 'E' is very small. After all, the P/E when your earnings are 0 are infinite.Some people use forward P/E, which for AMD is much more reasonable.
It's not at all unfair to the employees. They've all benefited hugely from the run-up that's already occurred. Stock options from 5 years ago are worth a fortune today; there are probably quite a few AMD millionaires minted in the last year.
A very wise man said that in the short run, the stock market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a scale.
ksec - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
You do realise even if they had double the Net Income, their current P/E for this year would still be 130? Even without paying down the debt they are no anywhere close to doubling of Net income this year.Basically on a market median of P/E 25, the market right now is expecting 10x growth from AMD in the very near future. And they are NO where near that number.
And Intel is trading at P/E 14 right now.
sing_electric - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
The article clearly says that AMD is focused on paying down debt. In the last quarter alone, they paid off $524m in debt - 100% of that isn't "off the top" of net income, since they'd presumably have had to pay interest and some principal on it - but it's not too far off. If AMD had the same quarter next year (with debt at/near 0), they'd have had 2.5x net income and a ~100 P/E ratio - still high, but arguably in the same range as NVIDIA (~66), while AMD arguably has better growth prospects (since NVIDIA's growth largely comes from growing the size of the pie, while AMD can grow by getting a bigger slice AND growing the pie).That alone doesn't explain the P/E ratio, but that's not the only number that matters for a stock (though for some investors, it might be the most important number).
lopri - Saturday, February 1, 2020 - link
Not necessarily a good thing. It is curious as to why they would pay a debt now when the interest rate is at historic low, when they can generate 45% of gross margin.Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
Unless they have something specific in mind to invest cash into that will grow revenue or margins faster than their debts accrue interest, it makes a lot of sense to pay off that debt while the going is good - regardless of interest rates.catavalon21 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
P/E is a very relevant benchmark. If your E is very small (or zero), then you are not making (much) money, and that is a very relevant point for most investors. Always exceptions, but P/S or P/E(forward) really ignore a key point - is the company making any money? As to how many AMD employees got stock options 5 years ago, or how many employees in the tech industry are still with the company 5 years later is another, but interesting, discussionHaawser - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
It would be relevant if AMD paid share dividends, but they don't, and never have. So the only relevant thing about how much profit they make is probably how much tax they pay.Korguz - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
im not sure of its the same thing, or same idea but :" Sanders gave each one of his employees $100 as they walked out of the door during AMD's first $1M quarter. AMD was also the first US company to implement a cash profit-sharing employee compensation program, where employees would regularly get profit checks of $1,000 or more. " to say they never did, may not be completely true
Haawser - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
No, not the same thing. What you're describing sounds like an informal employee bonus scheme. What I'm talking about are the dividends shareholders (not necessarily employees) get from owning a companies shares. If the company in question actually pays them that is. AMD don't, and never have.Korguz - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
ahhh.. wasnt sure..flyingpants265 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
That is the case with nearly all big stocks. The uh, "P/E" is really high, which basically means people are throwing big pallets of money at shares, the number itself means absolutely nothing.I've yet to actually see a real adult analysis of how & why a stock moves according to major shareholder activities, because it's impossible. It goes up when people buy it, but people are buying it without knowing the first thing about it. I guess we can just keep on pretending the stock market is real forever...
bill.rookard - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Absolutely agreed on paying down the debt. They managed to pull off the Ryzen, Epyc (Rome), Threadripper, mobile 4000 series parts, and the 5000 series GPUs AND paid down a big chunk of debt AND still showed a good profit to boot.I'm quite impressed at how well they're executing right now, kudos to them.
Dragonstongue - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
absolute Kudos even if Wall street / ANALysts are not looking at all sides of the picture.novastar78 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
See now these are the kind of realistic, level headed comments that just totally sums up what has happened with AMD over the last year. They are just firing on all cylinders right now, and the best part is we win as consumers.Lets not just give Kudos to them, but both INTC and NVDA as well for providing them with examples of well executed companies to strive to be, I really think they learned a lot from the competition, especially in their CPU's. Also, the fact that they listened to the market and consumers.
To be honest, I knew they would do well as I have have friends working for them, but they have exceeded even my expectations in terms of raw execution.
Now they just need to start selling the high margin shit by the boatloads.
catavalon21 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
"Now they just need to start selling the high margin shit by the boatloads."+1
duvjones - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Agreed, mostly. AMD has been on the ball for most of the year, the only real thing that I have seen that would be of concern is the fallout from the 5600 XT VBIOS debacle and even that will likely get smoothed over within the next few months (if only because the effects to DIY will be minimal).We shall see what the trade wind have for this year.
phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
The stock is up 80% since October. Lots of great news is already baked into the price.WaltC - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Only speculators buy the stock then dump weeks later...;) Up and down share price volatility, especially in microcosm, tells us almost nothing about a given company. Only amateurs react to every little up and down, etc.Interesting that Intel is hit with yet another major CPU architecture vulnerability that affects at least everything Intel shipped in the last five years--object lesson on the perils of milking, I guess.
https://cacheoutattack.com/CacheOut.pdf
Shlong - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
I bought AMD at $8 and sold it when it got to the $30's. Then I bought Tesla in the $200's and sold it a few weeks ago in the $500's. Now it's trading at $650.Dr. Swag - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
I believe the reason is that their forecast for Q1 2020 is lower than people thought they would put it atTargon - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Their forecasts are foolish and neglect things like seasonality. Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 makes more sense than expecting that sales will be generally steady with some blips upward for product launches. When revenues come from selling products, then the buying cycle for buyers needs to be understood.If there are a lot of computer sales for "back to school" and for the holiday season, you have to understand that the OEM computer makers need to buy parts well before that time, on the order of six to nine months. Laptop chips may be sold to OEMs in February but not available to customers until May or June(three months for the OEM to prepare new product models plus QA), then the products go out through the distribution channel to the sellers. It's not as quick as parts that are sold directly to consumers(desktop processors).
psandeep - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Seasonality makes sense when talking about established players that have low variations in market share. Expectations from AMD are higher given the hype (justified) around their products. They are supposed to be improving with every quarter. A lot of folks believe that AMD can produce as much as the customers are willing to order, which is not as straightforward as it seems.Dr. Swag - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
I'm kinda confused by what you're saying. They definitely take seasonality into account as evidenced by the fact that their forecasts were lower than what amd reported for q4. It's just that what they had expected amd to forecast for q1 is lower than what amd actually forecastedtipoo - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
10% growth in Epyc was smaller than expected given all the balls in their courtDiHydro - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
I don't think that is terrible for a segment that traditionally doesn't seem have a lot of room for growth. I feel that many datacenter and enterprise buyers are hesitant to change quickly, and are not buying new systems every year. Or if they are buying systems every year it's to replace what they already have.phr3dly - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
This is so true. We are putting together a large PO now, but it will probably end up being for Intel systems. Why? Because our previous systems are all Intel, and moving to Cascade Lake from Skylake is super easy from a qual process. And moreover while we're "enterprise" we aren't *so* enterprise that our vendor will give us a bunch of machines to evaluate.So while I'm confident we'd get far more bang for our buck with an Epyc 2, our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort.
That means I have another year to find some Epyc systems to get in-house to benchmark with our load. Next January's PO might be for AMD.
eva02langley - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
This is dumb. At this moment, an hybrid of AMD and Intel platforms should be used to prevent having to rely on a sole source supplier. Companies refusing to change are going to pay the price in the future.Targon - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Many people in charge in corporate environments are clueless, and don't believe in even testing something new, even if there is a huge potential to reduce expenses by 20-30 percent.FreckledTrout - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
I'm not sure calling it dumb it correct but at a larger scale you are exactly right. For a smaller enterprise it won't matter that much because they don't have the buying power in the first place. For large data centers like Amazon it will be a huge boon to pit vendors against each other.evernessince - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
"our IT director is confident that he can get the same machines we have today with an updated CPU, and get it installed with a working OS image with very little effort."Sounds like a bad IT director. His #1 goal should be getting the best machines for the company as possible with the lowest TCO and cost as possible that fit the performance target. If his number one goal is to be as lazy as possible, he should get the boot.
mkaibear - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Ah, I can see you've never worked in enterprise IT.The goal for enterprise IT is "what can we get that is the least stress for our customers, providing the most stability, and iterating on performance". Validating a completely new architecture for the enterprise takes ages. If you're doing your job properly at least.
The IT director who "just buys the new hotness" ends up out of a job really quickly when the unexpected problems bite.
evernessince - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Never said anything about buying the new hotness. You just assumed that and preceded to make a personal attack based on that assumption.Have you read your own comment by the way? Has Intel's security patches not provided significant stress for enterprise customers? Stability? Intel certainly hasn't provided that. I explicitly remember some games having to rent more cloud servers due to Intel's security patches reducing performance and the downtime those cause due to the reduced performance causing customers to lag out.
Iterating on performance? If you bought Intel you actually went reverse after the security patches.
According to your own comment, companies should very well be evaluating AMD as a option. I don't expect it to happen overnight but we should be hearing more along those lines.
FYI you completely forgot about TCO, which is very important Mr. Internet expert.
haghands - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
You mocking someone and calling them "mr internet expert" when you really sound like you're just talking out of your ass is hilarious. Like, come on dont play, you ain't never even seen a server homie we all know it just chill. You over here talking about you "heard some games had to rent more cloud servers." That's incredible, hilarious, kinda adorable even. Stay in your lane, Get on back to Apex or whatever lol.evernessince - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Do you have something useful to say or are you just here to throw insults?tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Can someone give me the run down on validation? Intel and AMD are both x86/64. Heck amd created the instruction set for 64 bit. Why would validation take months? if it works on Intel, it should run on AMD and vice-versa.evernessince - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Validation has four main goals1. Find hardware or configuration issues before being deployed
2. Help ensure the product being deployed is dependable
3. Test integration with current systems
4. Ensure compatibility and performance with the software or platform in use
How long validation takes depends entirely on the company and software in use. In the case of something like a cloud provider, it's the sheer complexity of the platform and the number of servers that take time. You can certainly get under 2 months for smaller projects though, although you do need time to ensure dependability beforehand.
tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
On Windows, moving to AMD should be a sure thing. IIS, SQL Server is not going to require much validation for web hosts. For linux, I could understand why validation might be done. For example that random # generator that effected Destiny 2.phoenix_rizzen - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
There's also a shortage of EPYC hardware available, at least for those of us trying to buy smaller systems (8-16 core) in tiny quantities (1-5 per year).Gigabyte server boards are back-ordered due to "a lack of chipset availability". And they've discontinued the previous generation boards already.
Supermicro rackmount servers are lacking in features, and backordered. And they won't mix-n-match chassis with non-SM boards anymore.
We bought two 7001-series servers last year. We're still waiting for a 7002-series server to arrive (maybe end of Feb).
(Could be just availability in Canada, but all out local and national suppliers are saying the same thing: backordered.)
tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Hm... how are they backordered unless they're selling out or amd is supply constrained?Mindworker1970 - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
The problem is that most server people are very conservative... they won't touch a product until the 3rd generation. The fact that Epyc is doing so well right now is a massive vote of confidence by the cloud service providers. The next Epyc chip is where you should expect some incredible uptake because of the TOE advantage that AMD has.mdriftmeyer - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Zen 3 EPYC follow up should be where AMD can build out a 4 x 4 matrix of target markets and win in every box over Intel. Intel's in a world of hurt for the next 18 months.BikeDude - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Somewhat ironic considering the avalanche of security issues that have struck Intel hard as of late.FreckledTrout - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
That has been my expectation and more so AMD should win in every single metric when Zen 3 based EPYC launches.evernessince - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Maybe but when you factor in the Intel security issues, AMD IMO has more credibility right now.mdriftmeyer - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Enterprises don't do the bulk of their purchasing this past quarter.eva02langley - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
The same happened last quarter before the stock pass from 35 to 50$. AMD is the most shorted stock in wall street, however it didn't played in the favor of shorters.BZD - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
That was Corona. Almost everything took a hit due to that. AMD is up 2.58% now.Dragonstongue - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
yeh was hitting $52 prior to earnings report, then slid to $50 now $46 and change.ANALysts are morons. I suppose they want everyone to spend next to nothing and make hundreds of billions before they give them a fair valuation....
FOOLS IMO
mrvco - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
'Buy the rumor, sell the news'HammerOn1024 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Just an adjustment. they're reacting more to the Q1 projections than anything else.azfacea - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
contrary to public perception and the audience here, who think data center will save Hard drives, client computing is, has always been, and will continue to be the primary market for semi with data center somewhere invisible in its shadows.its easy to be impressed with MSRP of flagship xeon's but total transistor volume has always been several orders of mag less than client computing and thus insignificant in a competitive market (especially if the monopoly and price gouging is taken away).
this will become clear when renoir numbers come out in Q2 2020. I also expect intel to lose a lot more than AMD will gain, especially with ARM on Mac and AWS
PeachNCream - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Paying down debt is critical for AMD at this point. The company has to get into a good financial position where it isn't held back by loans and payments while it has a solid set of products that are attracting business. No one can really predict how the competition will respond and a safety margin of cash along with little debt will help AMD survive if business hits another long rough patch.eva02langley - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Pal, they are 500 Millions in debts, it is less than 1Q revenue at this point. It is like they have a car loan at this point. They never had that much cash since 2006 and nothing seems to indicate this will change anytime soon. They are doing incredibly well for a company that was going under.PeachNCream - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Yeah, I know right. I have a few coworkers that have car loans and I feel for them not being able to save up enough to buy outright, but not everyone has a clue how to manage their money so they take on debt like auto and home loans. AMD's case is different though. The company legitimately has had years of hard times in the recent past so the fact that it still carries debt is entirely excusable.Spunjji - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Weird drive-by on people who can't afford to buy stuff outright. Some people are silly with money, sure, but for many of us the choice between getting a car or home loan and not getting one is the choice between having a job and a home or not having them.Korguz - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
some... also dont have the money to buythings like a car or a house outright.. for here.. a single family home starts at 1 million... to say people dont have a clue how to manage money.. is kind of close minded, with out knowing why or the persons situation...Holliday75 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
I could have bought my last car outright. I gave myself two options. Buy car in cash or invest in AMD and take out a loan at 2.99% for 60 months.I took AMD. That was 7 years ago and that profit can buy my next 6 cars. :)
PeachNCream - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Good on you for making a decent move. I would argue that you still purchsed something that required a loan and it would have been more cost effective to pay cash for a rolling POS. Maintenance is pretty much alway cheaper than a car payment and the recurring loan payment could have also gone into investments and netted you another c (new)ar or two worth of profit, but to each their own.Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
"Maintenance is pretty much alway cheaper than a car payment"Maybe, maybe not - and only when you can afford to gamble on time and/or wages lost due to the vehicle being out of action. I have done this myself and come up smelling of rose fertilizer: I was out of work, got a job, bought a banger with a clean bill of health so I could get to my new job, kept having to shell out on "just this once" repairs, and finally had it crap out on me before I'd finished saving for a replacement - meaning I had to borrow money to do that (or lose my job). My attempt to do the smart thing ended up costing me way more than if I'd just got a loan straight away.
As I stated before, your advice is only useful to people who started out in a relatively good position. People aren't all that dumb, they just have different equations to solve than you. See this:
https://wiki.lspace.org/mediawiki/Sam_Vimes_Theory...
eva02langley - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Incredible to see AMD getting rid of their debt so aggressively, great news IMO.TristanSDX - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
pretty much average results, considering it was holiday season / quarterTargon - Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - link
Look at the numbers again, Q4 2018 vs. Q4 2019. It was a very nice improvement in the numbers for AMD, and it is only the year to year that was flat due to certain segments that were down(console chips being at end of cycle). The numbers for Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019 will be a big improvement due to Zen2 based chips continuing to sell very well, and the new GPUs will also help.alufan - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
some people are simply clueless and have tunnel vision, this time in 2016 the very survival of AMD as a Business was being doubted it was sinking under huge debt and heavily discounting outdated and slow hardware, without the console sales am sure it would have gone under, its turnaround to the position it is in now is nothing short of legendary and with the continuing issues Intel is experiencing along with very strong new product pipelines for AMD I for one will be adding to my Portfolio, so far its been very good for me.yeeeeman - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Thought it was RIP Intel. Seems like some dudes bragging on Reddit are not the entire market. HmmmWaltC - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
It's going to take another 3-4 quarters before the impact on Intel of AMD's continuing growth actually hits the Intel P&Ls to a visible extent...;) The larger and more suffused with cash a company is the longer it takes to see the result of playing second fiddle on its balance sheets, as there are a host of bookkeeping tricks available. Most companies in Intel's position hope that before that time comes they can field competitive products and services once again. AMD has been on this roll for at least three years (much longer if we count development) now and AMD product innovation and improvement shows no sign of slacking off for the foreseeable future. Intel isn't just gunning for one AMD architecture, but for a series of steadily improving AMD architectures--and that's with CPUs. With GPUs I don't see Intel doing much, frankly. Interesting times ahead!Lakados - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
It will take far longer than that, AMD does not have access to the manufacturing capabilities at this time to make a sizable dent in Intel's market share. There are very few plants capable of producint the 7 and 7+ nm nodes they are using for their new products and there is a lot of competition to get in there. Until there are more fab plants that they can access to it will be a really tough go to bite into that share in any significant way. Though they are finally putting up a good fight and need to take advantage of their lead while they can, Intel will be hitting back hard sooner than later so AMDneeds to get their house in order before that happens or they might find themselves right back where they were a decade ago.alufan - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
if your old enough to remember AMDs 64 bit chips wiped the floor with Intel for a while and they got very rich very quick and like Intel at the moment probably had a few years of complacency, Intel brought out core2duo and it literally put AMD in the doldrums for a good 10 years and with the added efforts of ATI which they bought meant cuts, nil budgets etc to the point they bled cash for years, but remember they were cash rich FABs etc just like Intel, this Ryzen generational step may well be the equivalent blow to Intel from AMD but I doubt it Intel is more diverse, it will however have a significant effect in the next year or so especially when the Commercial markets start to move over which they will.supdawgwtfd - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Intel got into big trouble during that time for screwing AMD over too don't forget.AMD did not in fact make as much money as they should of.
Spunjji - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
When was that ever in doubt? :)Vesperan - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
"Yes. In 2019, we launched our new architecture in GPUs, it's the RDNA architecture, and that was the Navi based products. You should expect that those will be refreshed in 2020 - and we'll have a next generation RDNA architecture that will be part of our 2020 lineup"So - expect the 5500/5600/5700's to become a rebadged 6500/6600/6700's - with a RDNA2 Radeon RX 6900 XT on top?
I love AMD, but Polaris was used for a long while - so can we assume the current Navi chips will be too?
Spunjji - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
That's what I took from it. I don't think AMD's current chip design strategies can facilitate top-to-bottom product refreshes anymore. It'll be interesting to see whether that changes as their financial situation improves.ksec - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
This is a much better Report than the usual one from Anandtech, I was wondering. Turns out it was Dr. Ian doing the wonderful work!On the report itself. I am not happy with this performance. But this also shows how small is the "prosumer market ". Most of it are now in Server, Notebook, And Business Desktop. All of these are Long term contract and lock down as explained. But AMD are not hammering hard enough. On the other hand I think as much as I hate Intel they are defending those ties pretty damn well.
TheJian - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
I believe the highest quarter on record for margin was 56.8 or 58.6%. IIRC it's either 2001 or 2005/2006. They made about a billion that year.AMD made about a billion NET that year IIRC. That was back when they knew how to PRICE a winner. Currently the company is run by idiots that do not know how to take advantage of winning products, no competition, less watts/heat. Pricing at anything more than 10% discount is retarded (you are winning for crying out loud) and even pricing at exactly the price of the other guy is questionable when they other guy is facing shortages and fab problems.
As a stock I just dumped ALL AMD, as it is priced for perfection, which currently would be somewhere between 1.2-1.6B. That is NET INCOME for the Q, not revenue! So yeah, SELL. I did Friday...LOL. Predicting a wishy washy year is also down to BAD MANAGEMENT. You priced your entire year for failure and well, you have it. We should be seeing 1B net income Q's every Q with 15% more silicon (heck should see that TODAY and 2B net income Q's if that 15% is really going to double AMD's silicon at tsmc). They booked the entire extra 30,000 wafers per month TSMC will have supposedly. Currently 110K wafers and AMD is 4th out of top 5 customers. I can't see how AMD would be over 30K already (not with apple, HS, and Qcom in front of them), so that should mean doubling (more actually by far at TSMC it seems) of AMD's silicon pool from TSMC right? No too much coming from GF these days, so that should allow AMD to double revenue (easily) if you are using that silicon to attack HIGHER margin stuff and pricing them correctly to begin with.
AMD will get punished for this Q as they should, and for bad year predictions. You should be predicting double revenue by xmas 2020 or you are just stupid with pricing. That is why analysts are pissed. How can you NOT guide UP massively with an intel shortage and products that anyone with a brain wants vs. Intel, and no end in sight for the fab lead for AMD now. TSMC 5nm is on track (better than 7nm track), so nothing will change for Intel until tsmc 3nm maybe. Someone please explain why they are NOT making 1B a quarter with all this data? You are dumb AMD.
"DK: I don't think I've actually said that - I said some of our graphics products are below corporate average from a gross margin standpoint, in addition to the semi-custom have been below average."
You're fired.
"As it relates to the pricing environment, we're expecting a competitive pricing environment, and that's the way we built our model. We've always expected that the competition will be very aggressive on both the CPU as well as the GPU side - that is part of the inherent model or for the company."
LOL, you're fired. YOU made the price environment suck by starting a war that caused both Intel and NVDA to drop pricing immediately, instead of higher pricing that would have caused them to sit and wait to see how many you would take in sales, THEN respond with price cuts IF NEEDED. YOU, however, chose to price so low EVERYONE had to CUT in most cases even before you launched! That is Fing stupid on it's own, never mind doing it in a shortage of silicon...holy cow you are dumb! YOU ARE FIRED. I couldn't fire you so I fired your stock. I could point out even more stupid comments and excuses (silicon going to barely double digit margin products, fing stupid if that silicon could sell in a 1000% margin server chip!) but nobody at AMD is listening anyway. Avoid the stock until they pull their head out of their butts and price what the market will BEAR, not their dumb models. Jeez, did they hire climate change people to predict pricing? We know they can't predict today's weather, let alone 10-50yrs from now...LOL. Do I sound angry? HEH. Yeah, I'd like AMD to act like a real company that is working for shareholders. Heck, I'd be ok with simply RATIONAL pricing in this market. But you went freaking stupid with pricing. Servers same story (even worse). Intel was expected to slap a 25-50K price on 56c. I expect under 10k now that you price your FASTER chip with LESS watts at 7K...YOU ARE FIRED. That should be 50K until Intel gets their 56 core out the door in QUANTITY. IF they priced it at 50K I wouldn't have dropped my price a dime from 50K until you did! What part of making money do you guys NOT GET? IDIOTS.
Intel set a record because they moved all available silicon they could sell to SERVER and HEDT. This is the RATIONAL way to operate if SHORT on your products. Apologize to customers but do what SAVES YOU, just like Intel did. AMD needs to stop acting like a homeless beggar, and start pricing like a winner.
It is comic they just had their HIGHEST revenue on record for a Q, yet they made more for the year with basically 1/2 this revenue for the year a decade ago...LOL. Intel pulling 20B net income from 80% of the market on 70B revenue TTM. AMD, 6B revenue but only 209m NET INCOME TTM. Can anyone see the problem here? The person asking questions is right, why are you not in the 50%+ margins (and I think he means 55% not 50! INtel/NVDA at 64%)? Heck dump consoles and we should be asking why are you not in the 60% range! You are BARELY breaking even on the best products you've had since well over a decade ago when you charged rational pricing with 50%+ margins and REAL net income. Last 3yrs, 4B revenue, 5B, now 6B. WOW, that's awesome, oh wait...Profits for that extra 2B revenue grew NONE. Uhh, YOU ARE FIRED. For the love of god AMD, FIRE someone! YOU are your own enemy. Nobody at Intel or NV wants to lower pricing, they constantly try to hike a new product on TOP of old. YOU SHOULD TOO if at all possible (and it is POSSIBLE in a shortage!). IDIOTS. I could go on for days on AMD stupidity, but I have to find a new stock to buy now...LOL. Good luck if you didn't sell last week.
eva02langley - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Is that a joke? At this moment, there is rumor of Intel at TSMC and global foundries. AMD just consolidated their business for good. They are not going anywhere and the stock IS NOT collapsing and it's back at 47$ proving the valuation was quite close to the actual stock price.By the way I bought at 11$, so go cry me a river.
Carmen00 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Impressive. To summarise: you rage-quit on AMD stock, which you agree is going to go up, because you object to them not price-gouging when they had the chance? Yes, it seems like you've reached the pinnacle of rationality. Congratulations.Now if you don't mind, I'm going to return to financially backing the company that seems to be performing quite well without bending its customers over. Y'know, building up good-will and reputation and all those other things that don't appear on a balance sheet, but are sometimes considered to be useful to think about.
haghands - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
It's so tight to see this weirdos completely naked rage at AMD for NOT viciously raping their customer. My man is straight up giving the pursuit of wealth a horrifically bad name lol. Holy hell I hope he never gets hold of any kind of meaningful power, even if its just, like, being a fast food manager.TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
LOL. It means a lot. Not everything as there are a TON of numbers you should be looking at if you're serious or care about losses. The PE today tells me run for the hills with a bad year prediction that won't drop it. They should be at ~65 PE today with this Q report, and heading for teens with next Q or two as they ramp higher margin stuff (64c hedt/servers will do it). But it looks like they may be planning ramps of console crap instead of REAL chips ;) So single or barely double digit crap instead of REAL margin products that make REAL NET INCOME. TTM of 200m NET on 6B Rev in your best product year in a decade should have all of management fired...LOL. Your $500 console isn't worth squat compared to a 7K chip (even that massively priced wrong), so why do you keep chasing poor people AMD?Stop reading tech sites for stock analysis. READ STOCK sites. Problem solved. Make sure it's not just some dumb contributor (like me getting paid nothing, knowing nothing about me?...LOL Trust but VERIFY everything in money), instead of someone REAL with credentials and years of a record you can look at. If you want to make money in semi, you should probably have access to something like JPR/MPR or you will be doing a lot more work than needed (or translate a lot of asian stuff). 100K in NVDA today will get you 20K free in the next year. JPR at $5K is cheap if you do it with a few people from say, your work, who also trade stocks or MPR for a year at $1500 ($375 split 4 ways with co-workers). Never mind if you knew what you were doing a few years ago and bought at ~12-22 like we did (but ran way early...ROFL)...Heck nvida was $150 in the last 6 months multiple times and over 1/2 off a year ago again. PE and a few other numbers are all you needed to run at the highs ~year ago. NVDA/MU/AMD should all be stocks people run in and out of every few years if numbers allow it. They all basically long term channel all the time. Between the 3 of them you can be in or out of something making wads yearly. They usually don't all run in tandem for more than a short period of time. Look at a 5yr-10yr chart on all of them. If you're reading tech sites (product into) and stock sites (reports etc!), it is easy to make money on these and many more every few years in not yearly (they all have cycles to some extent easily seen. and they all have hype stories too). IE, NV about to release new gen on new fab tech and profit already reversed and will likely reach old net levels this Q and set records from here on for a bit at least (AMD has to answer with big navi and win or no stopping the train). If you thought it was worth $290 before it's not hard to see $300 coming this time. I'll say likely more in a few weeks probably as I do expect a record, but wouldn't be on it this time. The next Q will have 3 months of 7nm in it probably (piling up launch chips now no doubt), and we will see a record for net income. I'll be shocked if we don't see $300 by Q1 or before next year (I expect more, but will wait for product info before saying buy on that). Only a war or nature can derail this IMHO.
Watch for NV's PE to go to teens shortly as NET income goes back to records. I predict a record for the quarter after next (if not this coming Q). Sell AMD (last week...LOL) and buy NVDA. Collect 20%+ in a year or less. You're welcome. AMD will lose to whatever NV puts out on 7nm watt/heat/noise and perf wise, so clear for a year from NVDA. Intel not on the map until maybe rev 3. Rev 1 Intel is already dead on arrival...LOL. See linus facepalm vid recently about their gpu. Raja is not capable of making a gpu that beats NV engineers (or money?, both?). AMD keeps choosing HBM which kills every big consumer card margin also. If you choose expensive and useless, you make nothing. NV went GDDR5x and rockets to record quarters because it was EASY to make, in quantity, and fast enough for victory without risks of shortages or costs! SMART. AMD should not be using HBM unless the product actually warrants the use for REAL. If the competition is beating you with cheaper stuff you're doing it wrong (stop using HBM on anything consumer!). Repeating said mistake should=FIRED.
Again, not saying PE is everything, just one of many things you should be looking at. If you think it is absolutely meaningless, you should not be buying stocks. You only need a few numbers with that PE in this case to tell you RUN like mad from AMD (for a while? LOL), they don't deserve current valuation with future predictions they made for a year! In a year I'll be wondering why you are at 200+PE still apparently. I'll have to see if the next round of products are priced FAR better before I go back into AMD. If they had not priced so dumb for the last year, this whole report would have been massively different and so would the PE, and the stock would not dive on your Q report.
It moves for a reason, lots of them if you know what you're looking at and it isn't hard to predict given all the data you have per Q on companies today (and their competition). I'm reading text not even in my language much of the time for shipping info, fab info, etc etc. You can literally read to death on any stock these days. If you pick badly today 90% of the time it's lack of homework. No trailing stop on NVDA for a while (290? maybe then depending on AMD response to NVDA march gpus) :) I expect 7nm to push NV well above 1.2B net for a Q shortly, and that will cause $300 on that report or weeks after. Nothing to stop new records coming and teens PE ratio. AMD on the other hand, all baked in, according to themselves. You can see it in the questions too...But, but, margin, uh, er, console, uh, all new products, uh, what, why, how...uhmmm....? Where 1B Q net? NV pulls 1B a quarter now on GPU only (tegra makes nothing still), do the math on AMD. You are pricing wrong. NO, looking at Intel, market share for all, you are retarded AMD. The guy should have just asked if you are mentally handicapped or something yammering "how could you F this up?" as he walks off. :) Fire your "modeler" for pricing. Revenue up 30% next year, but pricing? You added 2B in revenue the last 2yrs and gained nearly NOTHING in NET INCOME. Last 3yrs and TTM 209m last 3yrs 337,000, 43,000, -497,000. Why the drop TTM? Aren't you ramping all your new stuff? WTF?
I'm going to have to see some price hikes at this point or the next rev pricing leaked. I feel like they'll be worth current value (well, last weeks value) in a year. So not much point in the next 12 months when I can make 20% in NV easily etc. Maybe I change that opinion as we find out what is going to happen with apple's share of TSMC 7nm silicon in more details. Sold most MU until the Q report too. If they don't guide much higher (back to old levels) they will get hit on the report for a recovery that STILL hasn't come quite yet. It's coming (mass profits again) but you can only promise and not deliver a few times before they make you pay even if the reality is changing just around the corner. Big fund managers do this on purpose every chance they get and jump right back in after they tank it and force small runs on a stock so to speak. Long termers like me just ride that crap out usually.
Sorry to disappoint you. I have never worked in fast food. That is a job for teenagers, illegals and people with no skills.
You don't seem to understand what a stockholder is. Naked rage? Weirdo? Raping their customer would be charging massively more than the competition. In this case we literally have the ceo saying they are charging below market value. You are a retard if you don't get the point here.
You don't seem to understand "what the market will bear" and that it is exactly what ALL companies are trying to guess if run by good management. If you are "raping" your customers, by definition you would not SELL a product to many people correct? Only the people who could “afford” to get raped would buy correct? It sounds like you are just sad you're poor and a probably working in fast food and have to beg for cheaper prices :) Start following my stock advice and you'll get FREE PC parts. Like the guy with the FREE CAR in this comment section. He's not complaining about the cpu prices, as it's free anyway along with his next 6 cars apparently (nice work!). Why are you still paying for parts? LOL.
IE, if Intel was raping customers, they would not set record quarter after record quarter correct? I mean, who buys rape? You don't seem to understand the point of owning stock...ROFL.
Wow, no point in calling you ignorant. You are straight up stupid. You think I'm weird for commenting ABOUT the stock, on a stock report mind you, while YOU just attack me and act like the article and the data I put out doesn't even exist :) Don't think you're stupid? OK. Yeah, stupid is, as stupid does. But I just believe you're stupid period :)
Someone like you leads to 20T in debt. Someone like me leads to profit, as close to what they market will bear as I can get :) PERIOD. That is your job as a company leader. The market should dictate how "NICE" you need to be, not your dumb CEO. I didn't say rip people off, I said charge what you are WORTH or change your product mix. You are just too dumb to get it.
Dumping junk is not ripping people off. Switching to a higher margin mix is just good business if silicon is short. Stop working at a fast food joint and none of these prices are raping you. I can afford Titan's every year (waste of money, but I can) and I'm not rich; at least not my definition of it anyway. Do you buy stock to lose money? Again, stupid. At least learn to debate:
Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Graham_(program...
For the lazy among us, and fast food managers too. Ah wait, they are by definition lazy, as in too lazy to find better work or skills. I want to be a fast food manager when I grow up...Said nobody.
You're giving smart people a bad name...Wait, you didn't claim to be one. OK, all forgiven. So no comment on the data then...Your loss if you ignore it. I lobbed a grenade to see if anyone could stop it from blowing up, yet you didn't get it. Consider my post a trump tweet, or "trial balloon" against my data. He floats a balloon to start a conversation about important stuff, then moves to where he really wanted us to go to begin with as people get it. Smart traders realize what just happened (hopefully gain insight from it, good or bad). Thanks to all for removing any FUD I had about selling...LOL. If you follow my posts (here and elsewhere, stock sites etc), you have been making money time after time. PERIOD.
Jeez, we have presidential candidates (and all fake news, MM) calling the current president a nazi, racist, murderer, comparing him to actual mass murderers, and every other name in the book, unfit for office and on and on. All of this despite the highest economy ever, lowest unemployment for all, highest stock market ever, TWO trade deals nobody could get done, moved embassy, recognized Israel, fighting Iran/China/Russia with ECONOMY rather than war etc etc. But you have a problem with harping on dumb CEO's when a bad report warrants it (I'm not alone, it went down for a reason)? ROFLMAO. SJW's crack me up. For the record though, I'd rather trump make everyone pissed and America rich (I get richer then too), than make everyone happy and USA broke so you can feel good as I couldn’t care less about your feelings. Need a safe space now? LOL. So tight (WTF? So 12yr old) to see all these SJW's attack me and have NOTHING to say about data (in or out of the article...).
I made money. Did you? Not even trying? Why are you here? Go back to reading reviews, this is a quarterly report for stock holders. You just keep working, I'll keep trying to make my money work for me so I can avoid being you. ;) I'll take weird over dumb. I'll take rape over bankruptcy too :) I can recover from rape, not so sure about the bankruptcy. If I have money I can afford therapy for the rape right? ROFL. Some SJW just blew a gasket...One less SJW? Yippee. Back to stock hunting, and bartiromo about to come on :) You've wasted enough of my time and I can type 50
+wpm (60+ on a good day).
Korguz - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
what the heck did this all say ?????Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
It said he loves the Trump and doesn't brain good.Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
What an asbolute pile. Some highlights for those who understandably don't want to wade through this junk:"...they may be planning ramps of console crap instead of REAL chips..."
"...why do you keep chasing poor people AMD?"
"Sorry to disappoint you. I have never worked in fast food. That is a job for teenagers, illegals and people with no skills."
"You are a retard if you don't get the point here."
"I can afford Titan's every year (waste of money, but I can)..."
"You're giving smart people a bad name...Wait, you didn't claim to be one. OK, all forgiven."
"Consider my post a trump tweet, or "trial balloon" against my data."
"Jeez, we have presidential candidates (and all fake news, MM) calling the current president a nazi, racist, murderer..."
"I can recover from rape, not so sure about the bankruptcy."
In short, standard Trump supporter: unwarranted confidence in own intelligence, inability to stay on topic, thinks bragging about being awesome is the same as being awesome, thinks being offensive is the same as being smart, projecting like IMAX.
My favourite bit was where he came to a tech site to rant about stocks and then told people not to come to tech sites for stock info. A++ goonery.
ballsystemlord - Sunday, February 9, 2020 - link
Thanks for the summation, Spunjji. I find you to be correct.Incidentally, TheJian, if someone doesn't start "chasing poor people" then poor people will not have computers. And I at least value that moral quality of AMD, which they are sadly loosing over time. :cry:
Zoolook - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
AMD could be the largest TSMC customer on 7nm in 2020.Apple, HS and Qcomm has moved on to 5nm for new chips so their volumes will shift away from N7P and N7FF+.
TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
Agreed, I think AMD will be #1 on 7nm at tsmc this year (well at the end that is). I just hope all the silicon goes to higher margin kit, rather than single or barely double digit crap (console like junk). No point in wasting silicon on $100-125 parts that make you $10-15 if you're a player like AMD vs. NV/Intel. You should be making the high margin parts only until it doesn't sell (see Intel), then make junk to add to your bottom line because that is all that is left.I really wish AMD had passed on console like NV, and for the same reasons (let Intel or someone else take that crap on). IT robs from your CORE R&D. It did exactly what NV said it would; killed AMD profits for years, cost fabs, land, engineers, etc. They gave it all up to claim a console victory or two that keeps stealing R&D design after design...They could have been a contender in the cpu race years ago (instead of basically giving up for 5-6yrs), and should not have been dominated by NV for ages either. I hope they choose wisely for the new silicon. They claim gpus/cpus (not socs/apu junk), but we'll see.
$52+ last week. Hope people sold. Likely more down for most stocks as anti-trumpers try to kill his market over this virus crap, fake impeachment etc. Good to be in safer stocks (with no debt) with room to run and good report coming (nvda for example for a while, no loyalty to either stock...should hit 300+ easily in 12mo, likely far less time). I think NVDA will set a record this Q or next and head to 300 again. Easy money if you don't mind the virus ride. The Flu kills ~2500 a year in usa, so miles from this still but that won't stop trump haters from trying to down the market as usual on anything they can. Middle class got 40% on their 401k but dems keep trying to take it down or give it away before you get it. They give it to illegals, welfare, free college, etc etc...Whatever they can do to bankrupt you and put you on welfare for life is their goal (and voting for said welfare for life). Too bad 1/2 the public still watches fake news, although more appear to be waking up as ratings for impeachment etc show complete tanking for dems. Even the debates have terrible ratings.
Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
"I really wish AMD had passed on console like NV"They didn't "pass" on it - they lost the business because of their constant gouging.
"Likely more down for most stocks as anti-trumpers try to kill his market over this virus crap, fake impeachment etc."
LOL
"Middle class got 40% on their 401k but dems keep trying to take it down or give it away before you get it. They give it to illegals, welfare, free college, etc etc..."
Can an admin get a ban on this assclown now, please? He's very obviously just here to spread disinformation.
Lord of the Bored - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Please take your antipsychotics.You're fired.
haghands - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
He really needed this job man. Think of the kids. Oh god I hope he doesn't have kids lol.TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
What job? If you make enough money on your money, you don't need a job.Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. You didn't even get to level 2 IMHO. Nice work. This is what you get today from our education system. Abject failure to communicate on anything other than SJW crap.
You should worry about your own kids. Sounds like you can't afford them and you are worried about mine (you don't even know if I have any or even care to). Your comment is dumb. Who is worried about a job in this economy? There are more jobs than people to fill them...Whatever. If you have skills, jobs are not your problem. I have not done more than 2 interviews for a job in my field (more than 2 decades, not counting my PC biz, no need to interview for your own biz...ROFL) I've done more than 2 interviews for a single job, but not more than two places before getting work (4 interviews for an IT job these days! IT interviews can suck...LOL). I landed my last job on the phone, with no need for my interview (the other 10 on the call had to do one (more?)...ROFL). Skills, recommendations, and a good resume will set you apart from the crowd every time.
Not sure what job you think is on offer here. You seem as retarded as the people I'm talking about. This is a financial report, not a job offer, and WTH does this have to do with kids? With 1m you can make 50K a year easy in the market. You don't need a job if you do your homework. You don't even have to really do homework to make that. Dividends can basically get your there if you're ok with this amount and lazy, or heck just buy Berkshire and call it a day. Don't have 340K? Buy the lower shares, same story, just no voting rights. I hope your kids are smarter than you appear to be.
Korguz - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
wow.. dont know when someone os joking ? ? geezeTheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
Google paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. It's not my fault you don't get what a Q report is or how to discuss it's contents...LOL.Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
"Only I can read the future in the entrails. Everyone else is dumb because they look at them and see only chicken guts, blood, and shit; but I, a brain genius, can divine the true meaning and tell the future (once the things have already happened, no guarantees of accuracy even then)".haghands - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Damn homie you got some major brain worms over there. Just squishing and wriggling around, writhing in the slop of your freakish contempt and misery. Anyway, as a consumer, I'M SO STOKED THAT THEY DECIDED TO PRICE LOW LOL. I dont care at all about stocks or weirdos like you who's only concern on earth is Profits at any Cost. Sincerely, I hope the workers at whatever shitty you business you run rise up and take all your shit lol.TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
This is a discussion of their financial report...LOL. IF you don't care about stocks, why the heck are you reading this article?I'm weird for liking money? LOL. OK. Profits at any cost? NO, AMD has never made a dime in the LIFE of their company. They have sold nearly everything they could to stay afloat. Fabs, land, layoffs of 30% over the last decade etc. Your problem is all you do is read reviews. I'm interested in making money (duh!) and the company LIVING rather than bankrupt.
Not one comment about the state of the company. ROFL.
Korguz - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
some one has NO sense of humor..Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
No sense of any kind, it seems.Spunjji - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
TL;DRSeriously though I checked out after the ableist slur in paragraph 2. If you need to be pointlessly insulting to make your point with any weight, maybe it's because the point has no weight on its own?
GreenReaper - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Finance posts always bring out those who know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.AMD needed to move past its recent reputation as a second-class competitor - largely, it has done so, at least in CPU - and give those who dropped them in the past (or never even tried) a good reason to give them a chance, especially in larger enterprises. Now they have a foot in the door at all levels, they can wiggle it further open. Thankfully clouds are making major investments, helped along in part by Intel's problems of the last two years - the gift that keeps on giving (we still haven't seen it fully-realized in some test suites, but that will defer the bad news only for so long).
TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
Spoken like someone who doesn't own stocks or know how to read a balance sheet/Q report. No argument with the data...Sounds like a democrat...ROFL.If you are rich, you BUY the foot in the door. Ask Intel. 3B slide of what they will blow to hurt AMD who as the slide noted only made 300mil (.3B in the slide...LOL). Reviews prove you're a competitor, no need to discount your crap unless it is, well, crap. No point in getting a foot in the door if you make nothing doing it.
Finance posts bring a few people who actually get it (because we trade this stuff! Or want company X to succeed), and a ton of people like you with NOTHING to add to the conversation. I know the value of nothing, it's equal to your post :) I know the cost of fools like you. Bankruptcy. AMD had to sell everything they owned to get here. There is nothing left to sell. At some point you have to realize you are doing it wrong. Sad they keep thinking like losers, largely because they listen to losers ;) See NVDA/INTC Q reports for how to get this right.
You must be a bernie fan right? How much will your plans cost bernie asked the reporter? "Nobody knows"...WTF? He said that on right on TV in an interview.
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/01/25/sanders-le...
SJW BS. blah blah...NO, business is about money (you have to make some to stay in business). AMD is wasting valuable time making people like YOU happy instead of shareholders. No point in being in until they make bank that is rational for their share price. IF they don't start doing that, you will see another plummet. I'm out for quite a while now. Extra silicon not coming until later this year, so dead money until we find out if it's going to crap (console type junk at no margin), or higher margin stuff like HEDT/server/big gpu.
Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
Solid assessment. Looks like you triggered "The Jian" though...TheJian - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Google that then come back :)Need a safe zone? Wake me when you make a point about data. I'm here for the financial report, don't see anyone attacking the data. That is exactly what I set out to do. See if anyone can argue with my points. NOPE.
Don't agree with your idea of an insult. It is not one IMHO, a retard should not be running your company...LOL. That is just reality. Whatever SJW. Keep on being pointless.
Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
"I'm not mad, I'm laughing, HA HA HA HA"m53 - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
Ian just casually forgot to mention the lackluster guidance in the title although the guidance is the main reason the stock is getting butchered now (7.22% down already).tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
still gotta remember q1 2019 was 1.27 billion, q1 2020 - projected at 1.8 billion. Yes it came below the analysts but it's still a win!tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
As Lisa said, amd is on a journey, a multi-year journey. The stock just simply got ahead of itself. If we were trading at $40, stock would've jumped.tetse88319 - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
q1 2018 was 1.65 billlion, but that was the cyrptorush. All gpus were sold out oft he channel. Gross margin in q1 2018 was 36%, gross margin in 2019 was 41%. Gross margin in 2020 is going to be 45%.Spunjji - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
And now it's going back up, because the majority of investors DGAF and are looking at their long-term viability.A title's a title, it contains the most important bits. Temporary fluctuations based on guidance aren't that important.
m53 - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
@Spunjji O yeah, "guidance aren't that important" for a company with a massive P/E. Then what's their valuation is based on?... Oh wait... Your name sounds familiar. Aren't you the self proclaimed "pro-troll" from the other article? Where's your alts?Spunjji - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
XD"Self-proclaimed" - nope, that's still just you
"Where's your alts?" - ain't got none, it's just me and the voices in your head here :D
Qasar - Monday, February 3, 2020 - link
i wonder where all his alts are... like the one that is trying to call me a troll... mehm53 - Tuesday, February 4, 2020 - link
Oh well, here's the alt # 1. Hopefully the other one will join soon :DBy the way did you consider creating a third one? I mean, having only two alts don't go well with your title as a pro-troll, just saying... :)
Qasar - Wednesday, February 5, 2020 - link
depends.. on how many you have.. i would guess... you have at least 5...m53 - Thursday, February 6, 2020 - link
@Pro-troll: I am bored talking to just you and your alt1. Bring on some more. :)zodiacfml - Wednesday, January 29, 2020 - link
thank you Intelpeevee - Thursday, January 30, 2020 - link
Managers ordering Xeons instead of EPICs right now are either incompetent or corrupt.vineetnigam - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
Absolutely wonderful to see AMD seeing more success and more importantly for consumers, bringing viable and attractive alternatives to Intel. I for one have been using Intel since my first PC in 1997. However with Intel's overpriced CPUs and not much to show for such a high price, I have a high likelihood of going for an AMD Ryzen. With my expected replacement cycle of 3-4 years, the money saved is worth it and could be spent on maybe better RAMs or other components. Cheers to AMD and hope Intel sees the reality and brings down prices. Core i9-9900K is my choice but it is way too expensive compared with Ryzen 3700x/3800x. Intel's system on CPU and Motherboard simply involves too high a cost for not much benefit in ownership or resale down the line.HammerOn1024 - Friday, January 31, 2020 - link
As a stock holder, I'm all for debt reduction to free up cash for investment. As long is it doesn't go to exploding the compensation of the executives, I'm good.Farfolomew - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
Halved their debt! Operating Income up 1000%. That's very impressive! And there seems to be a lot of market share to be gained with Ryzen 4000 coming out to finally compete on relative same space with Intel in the mobile market. 2020 could potentially be a big year for AMD.Haawser - Sunday, February 2, 2020 - link
It's not only mobile that 7nm APUs could disrupt. Fact is that ~70% of all desktops rely entirely on integrated graphics. Truth is that things like the millions upon millions of 'OEM office boxes' that are sold to corporate buyers every year are probably 99% dependent on iGPUs.And the desktop versions of 8C/16T 7nm APUs will be gunning for those too.
ballsystemlord - Sunday, February 9, 2020 - link
Spelling and grammar errors:"There are some discussions about 'pockets of shortages', but as I said before we've been on this steady increase in market share now for the last eight quarters, and we believe we -->gain share in Q4 as well. So I think what we see is just the portfolio getting a lot stronger."
Should be "gained" or "will gain".
"LS: I think if you look at it, the predominant factor if you're talking about Q1 guided 46% versus full year at 45%, it's just as we wrap those consoles,
there's some there's some impact of that."
Might have been her mistake, but you have a duplicate set of words:
"LS: I think if you look at it, the predominant factor if you're talking about Q1 guided 46% versus full year at 45%, it's just as we wrap those consoles, there's some impact of that."
[email protected] - Friday, February 4, 2022 - link
<a href="https://www.google.com/">Google</a> paul graham's hierarchy of disagreement. Wake me when you learn to debate. It's not my fault you don't get what a Q report is or how to discuss it's contents...LOL.