Yeah, nah. Call me skeptical, but I don't see 1.4b 5G smartphones happening by 2022. 5G rollout has been slow, particularly in rural/lower income areas of the US, so I imagine the same applies to lots of other regions around the world.
Additionally, the smartphone craze, I feel, has mostly stalled the past few phone cycles, and it's my perception that more and more people are holding onto phones for longer rather than upgrading every 6 - 12 months like they were before. There aren't really large performance or battery life advancements happening every few months like the early 2010's, so manufacturers have been trying to spin phones towards other minimal features such as thinner bezels/notches/gimmicks like squeeze gestures.
This seems to read more like a marketing stunt to influence investors to buy into Qualcomm because they seem to be promising/indicating that their 5G technology is going to supposedly be big.
5G roll-out has been slow? The first standardization was mid 2018, and only within the last few months have we gotten Ref 15 (the 5G standard that everyone will begin rolling out). This is way faster than the 4G roll-out.
1. There is an Annual GSM Report on 4G Smartphone and Subscribers Number that is very accurate as they are numbers from each MNO. I believe the Statista numbers are based on that. And at least they looks close enough.
2. Much of that late stage Smartphone growth and 4G Shipment were from China and India. China started their FDD LTE later than most other countries, and was not well prepared for the 3G to 4G transition. ( Technically it was more of politics rather than Technology at play, but that is another story )
3. It is also worth remembering iPhone only happens in 2007, iPhone 4 in 2010, and most of the world at the time still dont have Smartphone. Comparatively Speaking 2010 was still in the early stage of Smartphone Revolution. And again, the 3G to 4G transition was not well prepared at the time, not to mention the Change from Circuit Switching 3G to Packet Switching 4G was a much more difficult transition than 4G to 5G, which is ( Comparatively Speaking ) more of a evolutionary changes.
4. 5G is also well prepared, most developed nations would have started upgrading their Cell Tower as early as 2018 and only required software update to support a subset of 5G.
5. China is pushing 5G. And as you can see from the Qualcomm Keynote, most of their partners are Chinese, and they are also the volume players in both China and India. The Top 10 Brand of Smartphone Shipment are all Chinese except Samsung and Apple. ( That is Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, Oppo, VIVO, OnePlus, Realme, Lenovo ). If I remember correctly these Top 10 Brands ( Some of them are Brands of the Same Companies, such as Huawei and Honor ) combined to command close to if not more than 80% of the Market shipment.
6. There are lots of reason for China to push for 5G, one of them is population density and Cost / GB. As well as patents and all sort of other reason.
7. China intends to Refarm most if not ALL possible spectrum to 5G, leaving minimal spectrum for 4G operation. So if you still want to enjoy the Internet, you will need to upgrade your Phone, otherwise you will see a degraded experience with their 4G network.
8. There are currently close to 1B 4G Subscribers in China alone. I would not be surprised if 600M of those are 5G by 2022.
9. The world currently ships about ˜1.2B Smartphone per year, from now to 2022 would mean a third of all Shipment to be 5G. Considering the largest Single market is pushing it, I dont think that is too far fetched.
A phone? I am tired of phones. I dont use the phone part of my phone very often. I limit my time on this type of device. My 3 year old phone has no carrier anymore. I use wifi. The device design, durability and use profiles are costly to me as user. I stopped spending 500$ per year on access. Carriers are corpses. I dont like their pricing, product and support and business case. I start with ending the leaching.
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JoeyJoJo123 - Wednesday, December 4, 2019 - link
Yeah, nah. Call me skeptical, but I don't see 1.4b 5G smartphones happening by 2022. 5G rollout has been slow, particularly in rural/lower income areas of the US, so I imagine the same applies to lots of other regions around the world.Additionally, the smartphone craze, I feel, has mostly stalled the past few phone cycles, and it's my perception that more and more people are holding onto phones for longer rather than upgrading every 6 - 12 months like they were before. There aren't really large performance or battery life advancements happening every few months like the early 2010's, so manufacturers have been trying to spin phones towards other minimal features such as thinner bezels/notches/gimmicks like squeeze gestures.
This seems to read more like a marketing stunt to influence investors to buy into Qualcomm because they seem to be promising/indicating that their 5G technology is going to supposedly be big.
RSAUser - Monday, December 9, 2019 - link
5G roll-out has been slow? The first standardization was mid 2018, and only within the last few months have we gotten Ref 15 (the 5G standard that everyone will begin rolling out).This is way faster than the 4G roll-out.
ksec - Wednesday, December 4, 2019 - link
Ian1. There is an Annual GSM Report on 4G Smartphone and Subscribers Number that is very accurate as they are numbers from each MNO. I believe the Statista numbers are based on that. And at least they looks close enough.
2. Much of that late stage Smartphone growth and 4G Shipment were from China and India. China started their FDD LTE later than most other countries, and was not well prepared for the 3G to 4G transition. ( Technically it was more of politics rather than Technology at play, but that is another story )
3. It is also worth remembering iPhone only happens in 2007, iPhone 4 in 2010, and most of the world at the time still dont have Smartphone. Comparatively Speaking 2010 was still in the early stage of Smartphone Revolution. And again, the 3G to 4G transition was not well prepared at the time, not to mention the Change from Circuit Switching 3G to Packet Switching 4G was a much more difficult transition than 4G to 5G, which is ( Comparatively Speaking ) more of a evolutionary changes.
4. 5G is also well prepared, most developed nations would have started upgrading their Cell Tower as early as 2018 and only required software update to support a subset of 5G.
5. China is pushing 5G. And as you can see from the Qualcomm Keynote, most of their partners are Chinese, and they are also the volume players in both China and India. The Top 10 Brand of Smartphone Shipment are all Chinese except Samsung and Apple. ( That is Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, Oppo, VIVO, OnePlus, Realme, Lenovo ). If I remember correctly these Top 10 Brands ( Some of them are Brands of the Same Companies, such as Huawei and Honor ) combined to command close to if not more than 80% of the Market shipment.
6. There are lots of reason for China to push for 5G, one of them is population density and Cost / GB. As well as patents and all sort of other reason.
7. China intends to Refarm most if not ALL possible spectrum to 5G, leaving minimal spectrum for 4G operation. So if you still want to enjoy the Internet, you will need to upgrade your Phone, otherwise you will see a degraded experience with their 4G network.
8. There are currently close to 1B 4G Subscribers in China alone. I would not be surprised if 600M of those are 5G by 2022.
9. The world currently ships about ˜1.2B Smartphone per year, from now to 2022 would mean a third of all Shipment to be 5G. Considering the largest Single market is pushing it, I dont think that is too far fetched.
808Hilo - Saturday, December 7, 2019 - link
A phone? I am tired of phones. I dont use the phone part of my phone very often. I limit my time on this type of device. My 3 year old phone has no carrier anymore. I use wifi. The device design, durability and use profiles are costly to me as user. I stopped spending 500$ per year on access. Carriers are corpses. I dont like their pricing, product and support and business case. I start with ending the leaching.