china government is in a dilemma, suppressing US company would undermine economic growth, if not, trump would suppress more Chinese company. All in all, china relies more on US than US relies on China.
The input to China are blueprints, the output from China are goods. Goods that also supply the western world. All parties will be severely damaged (2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the west, anybody?) This trade war is an example of very, very short-sighted thinking.. Now who could've come up with that?
No, it's not worth it even if it achieves that goal - which it won't. There are innumerable different approaches to solving that problem that don't cause this much damage. Just because the president and his friendly media outlets are telling you it's raining, doesn't mean you have to whistle and sing while he pisses on you.
Of course it's worth it. China's evil totalitarian regime is our enemy and it's something the entire west should have done a long time ago but alas profit for the stockholders (the 1%) > all but Trump apparently.
Not worth it = not worth the current and future damage to the US economy from this approach given what little it will achieve. If you disagree then congratulations, you disagree with facts.
China's evil totalitarian regime is bad, yes. That has nothing to do with Trump's "trade war" because he sure as hell isn't going to effect regime change, nor is that his goal. Quit shifting the goalposts around.
Final point: Trump is the 1%. Again, not relevant. Learn to think.
The "goal post" of the trade war is not just deterring theft of IP, it also breaks down most of China's trade barriers which have been in place before they joined the WTO. It will open the Chinese market to US products and investments. Cars for example were taxed heavily and imported luxury cars frequently reached 200% the price in the US, in certain cases over 300%, yet people kept buying and luxury cars are literally everywhere in major cities so you realize how much larger the market could've been and how much tax the Chinese government's been stuffing its coffers with. In terms of investments, foreign funding is prohibited from reaching 50% in many areas, from manufacturing to IT, one of the core demands of the US was to remove most of these limitations.
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To be honest, these moves encourage IP theft. The Chinese market and third world nations are enormous and don't care where the tech comes from. Simply ignoring western IP laws going forward still leaves them 2//3 of the planet's population to sell products to...
I seem to remember that ARM was bought by a Chinese venture firm. Most likely scenerio, if pressured, ARM operations would seize in US and US firms would be blocked from ARM IP. Remember that 60% of TVs are sold in China, as well as cameras. China represents at least half of consumer electronics sales. The answer is to what will happen is very simple.
2x-5x the price? Not a chance. Products can be made other places. Eventually China will realize they can no longer get away with what they could get away with when their economy was 1/10th the size. They will agree to operate more fairly.
The trade war is long-term thinking. The US, and the world, really, must apply the pressure now. The status quo can be very difficult to change if there is not a stick to hold. The short term think would be to worry about "economic hardship" over the next 2 or 3 years while the whole thing plays out and then pay for that over the next 50 years while you are robbed blind.
When you say products can be made other places, ask Mr. Trump why he gave up TPP. Everyone knows you don't move out of your old house before finding a new one.
The TPP isn't necessary. You don't solve one problem by creating another. Even Clinton was planning on leaving the TPP, wasn't she? It's Chinese companies that are moving their operations to these other Asian countries, as well as companies from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the US.
TPP is necessary to establish SE Asia as a solid production base to US. Sure it is not necessary if you don't mind coupling with China for the next fifty years.
We are just repeating ourselves. I have no idea why you are making such a claim. Companies were already moving their manufacturing out of China before the trade war and without the US entering TPP. Now with the trade war that process is accelerating. The Chinese government is concerned enough about it that they are threatening SE Asian countries not to pick up these manufacturing jobs from China or wealthy, patriotic Chinese will stop tourism to the countries, whike simultaneously telling the Chinese that is their duty to spend tgeir mobey domestically.
At most, prices will increase 25%, because that's the tariff. In reality, it will be less than this, because you can find other suppliers for 2-8% more in most cases. Huawei is a special case, because they both stole technology (nothing new), but also sold to terrorist states. How many phones does Iran buy? Think about that when Huawei decided to sell phones to Iran, they were just laughing at "stupid Americans". I'm just they aren't laughing today.
2-5x is indeed silly, but assuming other suppliers will just step in (where they even exist) and not use the tariffs as an opportunity to cut themselves a slice of margin - well, that's just bad business sense.
A country that refuses to kiss the ass of the US is not the definition of a "terrorist state". Terrorist states are states which host, sponsor and promote *actual* terrorists, or who systematically murder civilians, either in wars or in foreign embassies. Like Saudi Arabia. (such comments are completely incompatible with this website, so I apologize. And I will comment no further on that).
You're broadly right that there's a legitimate goal to be pursued over and above short-term economic concerns. The problem is that the goals you're talking about, the goals Trump has, and the methods Trump is using are all completely separate from each other.
There's a middle ground between getting things entirely your own way and "robbed blind", and your current admin is fundamentally incapable of seeing the necessary shades of grey.
No. You just seem unreasonably biased against Trump. What do you think his goal is? China has been playing a delaying game because they are trying to win a political victory.. Ie, maybe the political winds in the US will shift and China can skate past. Trump and his team have obviously been a number of steps ahead of most pundits and they prepared their ammunition well for when China did eventually refuse to negotiate any meaningful change. Perhaps you are underestimating the Chinese resolve to maximize their potential. The trade war was going on long before Trump arrived, but only China was playing... and winning. China will not give that up without a fight through guts and guile. The shades of gray you speak about do not exist.
Exactly, even countries like India, will openly embrace the new manufacturing opportunities, and it would be chinese companies themselves opening plants in India. It is really important to stop china's monopoly in consumer electronics manufacturing.
"Eventually China will realize they can no longer get away with what they could get away with when their economy was 1/10th the size. They will agree to operate more fairly." Exactly! That's exactly what's happening and so far I've seen very few people come to realize this.
Short-sighted thinking? It seems to me that rebalancing trade agreements and getting China to actually respect IP for a change is a long term play. While nobody is in favor of a trade war, the passive position we've taken for so many years has not played out well for us so far.
There's a pretty obvious element that's shown up here to astroturf for Trump by presenting false binaries and making grand assumptions. They assume his goals are the same as whatever they're arguing, they assume his methods are effective, they assume China will end up playing his game. Lots of asses about.
What do these tariffs have to do with respecting IP? Trump says they're about a trade deficit. He's very much in favour of this trade war and has prolonged it unnecessarily. Who says the US position has been passive 'til now? Other than Trump, that is. So many bad takes and forced frames of reference packed into such a short comment, bravo.
> 2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the west
The 25% tariffs have only brought 8% max increase in prices. Do you really think an iPhone will cost twice as much? Those price hikes you mentioned have zero basis in reality.
The others are right - the trade war is hurting China much more than it is hurting US, and it's going to help the US much more in the long-term than it does China, which will be stuck behind having to re-invent everything from scratch and then try to catch-up, too -- way better situation for the US than allowing China to catch-up in product development due to all the US IP it was getting for free from US companies in forced tech transfers.
blu42 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 :"The input to China are blueprints, the output from China are goods. Goods that also supply the western world. All parties will be severely damaged (2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the west, anybody?) This trade war is an example of very, very short-sighted thinking.. Now who could've come up with that?" From the first steps the trade war I understand HuaHuawei become a powerful mobile enemy of some friendly countries to the USA. It may be dangerous to American global interests in all of the world. That way we have harmony with all countries. Today we have the war, but tomorrow will be a very strong piece!
You need to wake up pal, many big companies already switched their production to Taiwan and other countries to avoid Tariffs.
China is losing big time here. One of their biggest iconic company is now getting ban in many countries, but banning US companies to deal with them is literally a death sentence. They have access to no IPs, it is quite disturbing actually.
When Chinese were banned from both USSR and USA, they developed they nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Breaking the current trade relation simply means US tech companies lost a big market forever and risk a country of competitors in the long term.
Pakistan got its nuke tech from China because they were ally, and still are. USSR stole some key information to accelerate its nuke program from USA when USA was still friendly to USSR. However, both USSR and USA are hostile to China at that time, and almost no exchange of any kind happened. While USSR and USA researchers use computers for calculations, Chinese researchers did it by hand and paper.
If Chinese could steal nuclear tech to make nukes and ICBMs in the 60s, then Iraq and Iraqi should well be capable to do it in the 80s and 90s. Did they?
>If Chinese could steal nuclear tech to make nukes and ICBMs in the 60s, then Iraq and Iraqi should well be capable to do it in the 80s and 90s. Did they?
Steal is a word that you used, pretty sure there's many levels between developing the technology indigenously (as you implied) & stealing - which is roughly the equivalent of Valero clones now running in China. As for Iraq & Iran, why would they need the nukes & who'd help them? And if developing nukes, ICBM from scratch was so easy everyone would have them by now!
USSR was never willing to help China develop its nuke - Could you imagine USSR help Poland or East Germany to develop their nukes? They stopped all cooperation and aid to China in 1958 due to conflicts in ideology and sovereignty (China refuse to become a puppet state of USSR). All agreements related to nuclear weapon were never practically in effect.
Did USSR help China? Yes, before 1958, but not on nukes.
Did USA help China? Yes, after 1970, after China already had nukes.
Such naive people, no wonder you folks are fooled by Huawei's facade. The USSR sent scientists over to help through half of the development, relationships broke down and they left but China also had a couple physicists who brought know-how from the US help finish the job, like Deng Jiaxian from Purdue and Qian Xuesen from MIT, eventually China completed the development of both nukes and ICBMs.
ARM is owned by a Chinese venture firm. They also have a domestic architecture. Also, Fujitsu, who owns SPARC architecture now, also moved design and development to China. AMD just licensed and transferred IP of x86-64 b to a Chinese company. Only missing the IP to the new SIMD instructions. Don't know if they have access to AMD SIMD instr.
I don't know about retaliation, but I imagine the main effect will be that China prioritizes investment in native chip design capabilities. They're already in the middle of a broad effort to identify and address critical areas where they lack self-sufficiency. As I understand it, that initiative is actually (indirectly) one of the reasons for the recent US economic pressure on China, in that China had been resorting to objectionable methods for obtaining some of the tech they sought towards fulfilling their goal of self-sufficiency. Though from what I've read, the immediate driver of the anti-Huawei actions is fear of China compromising 5G networks at the hardware level (I'm not sure what evidence is out there to support this concern apart from China's general proclivities for cyber operations).
Self-sufficiency us one of the major reasons for the trade war from the U.S. perspective, in fact. It's not good for the U.S. when its supply chains so heavily depend on a semi-hostile foreign power with ambitions for aggressive global expansion and domination - which furthermore insists on waging a multi-decade mercantilist and cleptocratic economic war against the U.S. despite having a "favored nation" status in trade.
What happens if China eventually attacks/invades a U.S. ally (such as Taiwan or Japan, for instance) - would the U.S. be able to go to war when cut off from all its outsourced manufacturing, against a country that had turned itself into the world's factory? Bringing manufacturing and vital resource production back home, and/or diversifying the supply chain toward other trade partners, is actually a policy direction strongly aligned with U.S. national security interests.
Again, that's a great theoretical reason for a trade war, but it is not the reason for the current trade war. Always be careful not to mix theory with what's actually going on (let alone the Trump approved version of what's actually going on).
If your claim here were true, the US could more easily have created its own industries *and subsidized them to be competitive*. It would be no more costly than the trade war and have a better long-term payoff. Note that that is *not what is happening here*.
This will not happen. Chinese government will not do something to hurt their own economy only to pretend they are strong.
US banned supercomputer tech export to China in 2011 to 12. China responded by building the fastest supercomputer, using its own manycore CPU, built on (at best) 32nm process by local foundry in 2015 or 16 - and probably things go the same way this time.
China's super computers sit mostly unused, it's a status thing. They also managed to build "the most powerful" by just adding as many chips as they could, they're not very efficient, like 1/5th of Zen or so. The consumer side they have top-end chips capping at 8 cores 3GHz single core turbo with probably something like 45W and no L3 cache. Can't really say as haven't seen any reviews, only announcements. Basically CPU's in quality from the mid 2000's or so leveraging off of node shrinkage to up the core count.
Probably not much needed to do. First Huawei can still use ARM v8 instruction set in their future CPU. Second they spend over US$ 10B solely on R&D every year, and is still spending more year by year.
Is is wise to force a close partner to become a potential competitor? I don't think ARM will agree. For Mr. Trump, WFC ARM as a Englsh/Japanese Company?
China has been suppressing US and other foreign companies forever. This is not even 1% of retaliation for that. If you are not aware, educate yourself.
China plays the long game. They will eat shit for 15 years while they plot how this ends...
The most obvious fracture point (and the reason this is not just fun and games) is Taiwan. Taiwan right now can be friends to both China and the US, and (in the past) both were OK with that. China would mutter about "one day Taiwan will return home" but leave that to the far distant future.
But if this lunacy goes further and Trump effectively forces Taiwan into an "it's us or them, make your choice but you can't do business with both of us", that doesn't end well. Both US electronics AND China have too much at stake to allow the other side EXCLUSIVE access to Taiwan. But these poorly-thought-out orders from the White House seem likely, at some point, to hit companies like TSMC and Foxconn, and then what?
This will not have an immediate effect on Huawei, current contract between Huawei and ARM will still allow Huawei to use currently licensed ARM architectures. This gives Huawei enough breeding room to develop its' own fully custom SoC in a few years.
Yup. The risk is to HiSilicon as a subsidiary, rather than Huawei as a whole. In the end, all Huawei needs to do is use technology from another ARM licensee that has not been blacklisted by the US Government. That means they can still tap a number of partners with manufacturing facilities in mainland China. The most likely scenario is seeing the Chinese government call in some favours across the industry and merge a number of design centres and manufacturing facilities, "appropriate" (more) foreign IP, and reinforce its strategy to become technology-independent. They could also source chips from rivals Samsung, Qualcomm and Mediatek, of course. Huawei is not at risk except from panicky writers and financial analysts.
>This gives Huawei enough breeding room to develop its' own fully custom SoC in a few years.
Which cannot run ARM instructions, I doubt you can dance around the licensing of ARM tech with a custom SoC or whatever else you think Huawei will come up with.
Huawei obtained the license to use ARM v8 architecture indefinitely. That's why only "Arm’s suspension only involves further technology transfers and development". Though ARM is not going to license future A5X or A7X IP to Huawei, it cannot stop Huawei develop their own based on current ARM v8 architecture.
Huawei gained the ARMv8 architecture license in 2013, this could be googled although is too old to appear on official site of either Huawei or ARM. There was an article in Anandtech mentioning the dfferent type of license offered by ARM around that year I think.
Architecture license allows companies like Qualcomm and Apple to design their own processors based on ARM v8. Do you think those companies will accept a license with limited lifespan when they need to commit tens of billions of dollars to it?
This escalated quickly... It's almost the economic equivalent to the Cuba missile crisis in the Cold War. Just that we don't have a rational player on one side this time.
It's not like the Cuban missile crisis. That's a big exaggeration. And both sides have been acting rationally. They are just not willing to back down until forced to. China has a good thing going the way things are. They aren't going to change unless they are absolutely forced. Either America loses the political will to see it through, or China will eventually back down because it can no longer prop up its economy through debt and it has lost too much of the markets and technology from the US is relies on.
So we have nagative effect of relying on their 'free' tech. EU, Russia and China should join to develop their own free technologies and standard, to get rid of US corps from their markets.
Why would the EU oppose the US? The EU is being harmed by Chinese policy almost as much as the US. The EU is most certainly hoping that the US gets China to change their ways.
Not just the EU, any current or potential competitors to China face discrimination & hostility in the mainland. This was bound to boil over, it's a good thing that the US is doing this since it is the US which led everyone into China thinking they'll mend their ways & become more democratic/less authoritarian.
Yes, treating hostile authoritarian nations like your enemy is definitely the best way to get them to become less authoritarian and more democratic. Just look at the Russian success story! /s
The CCP isn't looking for your validation. The CCP doesn't need your moral condonement to operate and it doesn't care about your moral condemnation. The Chinese people will accept an authoritarian rule as long as it is considered legitimate in terms of Chinese cultural expectations and as long as they provide prosperity to the country. The CCP has probably raised a certain amount of resentment among Chinese as far as their interference in traditional Chinese culture, but they have provided the necessary ecenomic improvement over the past 30 years. The CCP has no intention of relinquishing authoritarian control. If one wishes to oppose authoritarianism in China then giving them special deals to allow them to be more economically successful than they would otherwise be is the wrong way to go. Western intelligentia must have been aware of this, but were arrogant and thought that such a centrally controlled economic expansion was not possible, plus they were probably blinded by their greed when looking at the Chinese market and the Chinese manufacturing capabilities. The CCP outsmarted them, plain and simple.
"US which led everyone into China thinking they'll mend their ways & become more democratic/less authoritarian" No chance of that though. Right now essentially every media, private or state-owned is wasting no time portraying the US as the big bad wolf and Huawei as the innocent sheep. The Party has long instilled the notion in every aspect of society under their direct control that Japan and the US are enemies of all Chinese, on top of their nationalistic brainwash that the fate of all Chinese are tied to the Party (the State, in their words, but they also define the Party as inseparable from the State, using "the choice of the People" as their excuse, as if the People are still capable of making choices) so you must make sacrifices when the Party (again, State in their words) asks for it. I'm telling you it's worked, very well. Now the brainwashed make their own connection that Huawei's is an essential part of the State and must be protected at all costs, as such private bans(company scale boycotts directed by the management) of Apple and calls for buying Huawei are popping up in China. Why don't they boycott Intel and AMD? Oh wait...
If that were true, the EU would be doing something themselves. Entire trading blocs of nations don't just sit around "hoping" that Trump will fix things for them.
I spoke in the past about chips being almost entirely occidental technology, now we have a good example of this. China cannot do anything without chip makers as of now.
If ARM, which is Japanese and not American, is going along with it, then Huawei will have few options. There's not enough time to develop anything themselves and anything they did develop would not be nearly as good, especially at first, not to mention compatibility issues. Besides, they won't have the borrower's advantage they had when they ascended so quickly the first time.
Worst case for Huawei they'll just loan more and more and more from China Development Bank, which China uses mainly for infrastructure development but is also Huawei's allowance. I believe they don't have a credit limit there. They could be kept on life support as a national project for years until they're entirely independent of ARM, when they'll be hailed in China as heros, yet a "private company" that's fought and won the "evil" US.
I agree China won't give up on the development of the technology, but Huawei as we know it cannot exist if they can't make products. They stand to lose the bulk of their smartphone business as well as lower telecom equipment sales. In 2018 they had over $100 billion in revenue and they employed 188,000 people, according to Wikipedia. There would need to be layoffs. The brand itself is a valuable property, and it has been tarnished internationally already. It will be further tarnished if their market share plunges because they can't put products out. If they can't deal effectively with the customer service problems forthcoming then even more so. When they finally do come out with something on their own it's likely to not be as good as the competition.
I agree that they'd have to lay off many people, but I don't see them losing more than 1/3 of the smartphone market, their market position in China will be strengthened by nationalism and they won't lose the whole international market either. "The brand itself is a valuable property, and it has been tarnished internationally already." The brand is certainly valuable property, it's probably the most "valuable" brand in China, but I don't know about tarnished, I see even many western media defending Huawei out of obvious or not-so-obvious political reasons or a superficial understanding, and the Trump administration antagonized many before dealing with Huawei inadvertently casting a halo on Huawei.
Huawei will definitely received a benefit from nationalism, but I am not sure if it will go so far that the young people will buy phones that they can't be satisfied with. If without Google and ARM Huawei loses functionality and user friendliness from their phones they may suffer even in China. A company can ask all employees to use Huawei, but how many of the employees actually will depends on the energy put into the campaign by all the low level managers and the general peer pressure. And then a university, I think, is not going to be able to seriously pressure all its students to use Huawei, and would it really go so far that the teachers would start shaming the students to follow through on it, anyway? Public announcements and social media trumpeting aren't real sacrifices. By themselves, they don't signify the reality of the situation. What I am trying to say is that yes, if Huawei manages to make competitive products then nationalism will probably carry them to strong market share in China, but if the technology restrictions make their products uncompetitive would an overwhelming majority of consumers who are used to a certain experience really be willing to give that up for the sake of Huawei?
Regardless, Huawei losing their foreign sales still cuts their revenues in half, I think. In terms of the brand being tarnished, it doesn't have to be a moral judgment. Smartphone consumers are hardly going to be interested in rallying around a smartphone company. Their perception of the brand is not going to be based on what media sources say, but rather on the practical value of the phones. And if their phones lose functionality they lose appeal and that negative change will probably have a negative effect on the perception of the brand. Just a few years of less visibility can kill the momentum of the brand. Right now it's Huawei wow-way and in a few years if they claw their way back, whether through new hardware and software or through the end of the restrictions, it could very well be Huawei, oh yeah, I remember them.
It's getting ridiculous, this fool in the white House is going to ruin the US and take with it other countries. The EU, China, and India and other countries should work together against this madness.
You think the EU and India want to get robbed by China? No, they are hoping the US gets China to change their ways. Of course they want it to be over sooner rather than later. Your fool in the White House is doing what should have been done 10 years ago, but greed and arrogance took precedence over the good of the American people.
Firstly, nations do look to the US for leadership, whether you like it or not. But the EU isn't so much lookingfor leadership here, rather they are looking to freeload. They don't want to be the one to charge up the hill but you can bet they'll plant a flag up there when they think it is safe.
Yes, Trump is acting for the good of the American people, as is his job, but that doesn't mean that things he does can't simultaneously be good for people elsewhere, whether by design or by happenstance. In this case it is a happenstance, and pretty obviously true, btw, that the policies of China that negatively affect the USA also negatively affect the EU and other countries.
@Yojimbo No. Not all nations. At least not Southeast Asian nations. Who want US leadership when all this country do is wage a trade wars that harm other countries.
It's odd that you think it's somehow a fantasy workd for a President to be actibg for the good of the country that elected him. Even the CCP is acting for the good of China, as they see it. It doesn't take altruism to do one's job. A personal care - a sense of patriotism,for example- helps, but even that is not necessary. Just a personal resolve to do a good job, a desire to be well-remembered, a drive to prove people wrong... these things can lead people to do their jobs well.
Yes, like Hitler. - Personal resolve to do a good job, check. - A desire to be 'well'-remembered, check. - A drive to prove people wrong, check. And yeah, he did a 'good' job, eh? /s
Did you deliberately ignore the point of the discussion thread just to mention Hitler? Your "checks" don't even make sense because I was just giving hypothetical examples of motivations people can have besides altruism.
But actually you inadvertently brought up a very good example. Yes, Hitler was acting for the good of his country. It is an excellent point, in fact, because the guy I was replying to was implying that it's somehow a fantasy world to think a President is acting for the good of the country. The fact that even Hitler was acting for the good of his country exhibits how ridiculous the claim is, despite him making it in such a way that it seems like he thinks only a fool could think otherwise.
Yeah I mean going forward more and more products will be IP. Our economies cannot coexist on the current paths we are on. Free market depends on incentive to develop IP. People may be upset by it but the hand is forced. China and the US both have the problem of abuse of power both economic and political. But China is clearly far FAR worse. What makes you think they wouldnt invade the Us if they could get away with it? Thier management style clearly shows a lack of morals.
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BedfordTim - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I wonder what the retaliation will be? I can't see China idly sitting back and allowing US to suppress their tech companies quite so easily.ternnence - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
china government is in a dilemma, suppressing US company would undermine economic growth, if not, trump would suppress more Chinese company. All in all, china relies more on US than US relies on China.blu42 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
The input to China are blueprints, the output from China are goods. Goods that also supply the western world. All parties will be severely damaged (2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the west, anybody?) This trade war is an example of very, very short-sighted thinking.. Now who could've come up with that?06GTOSC - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
If the end result is a curb on China's massive IP theft, I'd say it's worth it. Nothing will change without some pain.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
No, it's not worth it even if it achieves that goal - which it won't. There are innumerable different approaches to solving that problem that don't cause this much damage. Just because the president and his friendly media outlets are telling you it's raining, doesn't mean you have to whistle and sing while he pisses on you.Kvaern1 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Of course it's worth it. China's evil totalitarian regime is our enemy and it's something the entire west should have done a long time ago but alas profit for the stockholders (the 1%) > all but Trump apparently.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Not worth it = not worth the current and future damage to the US economy from this approach given what little it will achieve. If you disagree then congratulations, you disagree with facts.China's evil totalitarian regime is bad, yes. That has nothing to do with Trump's "trade war" because he sure as hell isn't going to effect regime change, nor is that his goal. Quit shifting the goalposts around.
Final point: Trump is the 1%. Again, not relevant. Learn to think.
s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
The "goal post" of the trade war is not just deterring theft of IP, it also breaks down most of China's trade barriers which have been in place before they joined the WTO. It will open the Chinese market to US products and investments. Cars for example were taxed heavily and imported luxury cars frequently reached 200% the price in the US, in certain cases over 300%, yet people kept buying and luxury cars are literally everywhere in major cities so you realize how much larger the market could've been and how much tax the Chinese government's been stuffing its coffers with. In terms of investments, foreign funding is prohibited from reaching 50% in many areas, from manufacturing to IT, one of the core demands of the US was to remove most of these limitations.Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ s.yu - Hello again. CAREFUL with the use of facts, common sense & logic. That is like kryptonite to the lefties.Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ Kvaern1 - agree. Hussein Obama (Islamic apologizer in chief), inactions, only made this worse.businesslist - Wednesday, July 28, 2021 - link
https://www.listmybusinesses.com/ Before the attack of internet searcher goliaths like Google, professional resource was the go-to put for all the data searchers. On the off chance that we glance back at how these professional resources came into place, the entire essence was the need. The web brought forth numerous sites and each business began to have its own site.Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ Spunjji - But unfortunately you are incorrect. This is the only way to fight a bully is head on.Reflex - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
To be honest, these moves encourage IP theft. The Chinese market and third world nations are enormous and don't care where the tech comes from. Simply ignoring western IP laws going forward still leaves them 2//3 of the planet's population to sell products to...Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ 06GTOSC - exactly my point of view also.Yorgos - Tuesday, March 30, 2021 - link
If you don't want your IP stolen, manufacture it yourself.willis936 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I don't think US markets are dependent on Chinese tech.bortiz - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I seem to remember that ARM was bought by a Chinese venture firm. Most likely scenerio, if pressured, ARM operations would seize in US and US firms would be blocked from ARM IP. Remember that 60% of TVs are sold in China, as well as cameras. China represents at least half of consumer electronics sales. The answer is to what will happen is very simple.Ariknowsbest - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
A Japanese company Softbank via their Vision Fund bought ARM. MIPS was bought by Chinese venture funds.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
lol ARM Suspends Business with Huawei, read the title.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Nobody said the US markets are dependent on Chines tech - it's about their manufacturing capabilities.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
2x-5x the price? Not a chance. Products can be made other places. Eventually China will realize they can no longer get away with what they could get away with when their economy was 1/10th the size. They will agree to operate more fairly.The trade war is long-term thinking. The US, and the world, really, must apply the pressure now. The status quo can be very difficult to change if there is not a stick to hold. The short term think would be to worry about "economic hardship" over the next 2 or 3 years while the whole thing plays out and then pay for that over the next 50 years while you are robbed blind.
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
When you say products can be made other places, ask Mr. Trump why he gave up TPP. Everyone knows you don't move out of your old house before finding a new one.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
The TPP isn't necessary. You don't solve one problem by creating another. Even Clinton was planning on leaving the TPP, wasn't she? It's Chinese companies that are moving their operations to these other Asian countries, as well as companies from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the US.wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
TPP is necessary to establish SE Asia as a solid production base to US. Sure it is not necessary if you don't mind coupling with China for the next fifty years.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
We are just repeating ourselves. I have no idea why you are making such a claim. Companies were already moving their manufacturing out of China before the trade war and without the US entering TPP. Now with the trade war that process is accelerating. The Chinese government is concerned enough about it that they are threatening SE Asian countries not to pick up these manufacturing jobs from China or wealthy, patriotic Chinese will stop tourism to the countries, whike simultaneously telling the Chinese that is their duty to spend tgeir mobey domestically.Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
+1.andychow - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
At most, prices will increase 25%, because that's the tariff. In reality, it will be less than this, because you can find other suppliers for 2-8% more in most cases. Huawei is a special case, because they both stole technology (nothing new), but also sold to terrorist states. How many phones does Iran buy? Think about that when Huawei decided to sell phones to Iran, they were just laughing at "stupid Americans". I'm just they aren't laughing today.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
2-5x is indeed silly, but assuming other suppliers will just step in (where they even exist) and not use the tariffs as an opportunity to cut themselves a slice of margin - well, that's just bad business sense.s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
They sold phones but also cell towers and other infrastructure, Iran's cell network is IIRC 100% Huawei.Santoval - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
A country that refuses to kiss the ass of the US is not the definition of a "terrorist state". Terrorist states are states which host, sponsor and promote *actual* terrorists, or who systematically murder civilians, either in wars or in foreign embassies. Like Saudi Arabia.(such comments are completely incompatible with this website, so I apologize. And I will comment no further on that).
Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
You're broadly right that there's a legitimate goal to be pursued over and above short-term economic concerns. The problem is that the goals you're talking about, the goals Trump has, and the methods Trump is using are all completely separate from each other.There's a middle ground between getting things entirely your own way and "robbed blind", and your current admin is fundamentally incapable of seeing the necessary shades of grey.
Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
No. You just seem unreasonably biased against Trump. What do you think his goal is? China has been playing a delaying game because they are trying to win a political victory.. Ie, maybe the political winds in the US will shift and China can skate past. Trump and his team have obviously been a number of steps ahead of most pundits and they prepared their ammunition well for when China did eventually refuse to negotiate any meaningful change. Perhaps you are underestimating the Chinese resolve to maximize their potential. The trade war was going on long before Trump arrived, but only China was playing... and winning. China will not give that up without a fight through guts and guile. The shades of gray you speak about do not exist.patel21 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Exactly, even countries like India, will openly embrace the new manufacturing opportunities, and it would be chinese companies themselves opening plants in India. It is really important to stop china's monopoly in consumer electronics manufacturing.s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
"Eventually China will realize they can no longer get away with what they could get away with when their economy was 1/10th the size. They will agree to operate more fairly."Exactly! That's exactly what's happening and so far I've seen very few people come to realize this.
techconc - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Short-sighted thinking? It seems to me that rebalancing trade agreements and getting China to actually respect IP for a change is a long term play. While nobody is in favor of a trade war, the passive position we've taken for so many years has not played out well for us so far.wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
It only works if you can win. Could Mr Trump? Doesn't the so called "breaking promise" BEFORE any deal worry you?Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
There's a pretty obvious element that's shown up here to astroturf for Trump by presenting false binaries and making grand assumptions. They assume his goals are the same as whatever they're arguing, they assume his methods are effective, they assume China will end up playing his game. Lots of asses about.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
What do these tariffs have to do with respecting IP? Trump says they're about a trade deficit. He's very much in favour of this trade war and has prolonged it unnecessarily. Who says the US position has been passive 'til now? Other than Trump, that is. So many bad takes and forced frames of reference packed into such a short comment, bravo.s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Read about what demands the negotiations were based upon.Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ techconc - and THIS is the long and short of it. Nice to see somebody is paying attention.Krysto - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
> 2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the westThe 25% tariffs have only brought 8% max increase in prices. Do you really think an iPhone will cost twice as much? Those price hikes you mentioned have zero basis in reality.
The others are right - the trade war is hurting China much more than it is hurting US, and it's going to help the US much more in the long-term than it does China, which will be stuck behind having to re-invent everything from scratch and then try to catch-up, too -- way better situation for the US than allowing China to catch-up in product development due to all the US IP it was getting for free from US companies in forced tech transfers.
Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
"My sock puppets and IRA friends are right, the Trump party line is the only truth"alfredmartinez - Monday, May 27, 2019 - link
blu42 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 :"The input to China are blueprints, the output from China are goods. Goods that also supply the western world. All parties will be severely damaged (2x-5x price hikes for virtually all electronics in the west, anybody?) This trade war is an example of very, very short-sighted thinking.. Now who could've come up with that?" From the first steps the trade war I understand HuaHuawei become a powerful mobile enemy of some friendly countries to the USA. It may be dangerous to American global interests in all of the world. That way we have harmony with all countries. Today we have the war, but tomorrow will be a very strong piece!essemzed - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
You sure? Check "JL Mag Rare-Earth Co Ltd"...Death666Angel - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
"All in all, china relies more on US than US relies on China."You are adorable. Do you do stand-up somewhere? You have great material already!
eva02langley - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
You need to wake up pal, many big companies already switched their production to Taiwan and other countries to avoid Tariffs.China is losing big time here. One of their biggest iconic company is now getting ban in many countries, but banning US companies to deal with them is literally a death sentence. They have access to no IPs, it is quite disturbing actually.
Death666Angel - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Hey Donald, great to see you being sorta literate for once. How are you doing?Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I love it when they say "wake up", as if we're typing in our sleep. ONLY THEY CAN SEE THE TRUE TRUE!wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
When Chinese were banned from both USSR and USA, they developed they nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Breaking the current trade relation simply means US tech companies lost a big market forever and risk a country of competitors in the long term.R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>When Chinese were banned from both USSR and USA, they developed they nuclear weapons and ICBMs.Adorable that you think the Chinese made nukes or ICBM without any outside help, just like their (stolen) versions of bullet trains 😄
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
How stupid you are to think tech or design for nukes can be stolen?R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>How stupid you are to think tech or design for nukes can be stolen?Apparently not stupid enough to know that I'm talking to one, how do you think USSR got its nukes or Pakistan?
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Pakistan got its nuke tech from China because they were ally, and still are. USSR stole some key information to accelerate its nuke program from USA when USA was still friendly to USSR. However, both USSR and USA are hostile to China at that time, and almost no exchange of any kind happened. While USSR and USA researchers use computers for calculations, Chinese researchers did it by hand and paper.If Chinese could steal nuclear tech to make nukes and ICBMs in the 60s, then Iraq and Iraqi should well be capable to do it in the 80s and 90s. Did they?
R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>If Chinese could steal nuclear tech to make nukes and ICBMs in the 60s, then Iraq and Iraqi should well be capable to do it in the 80s and 90s. Did they?Steal is a word that you used, pretty sure there's many levels between developing the technology indigenously (as you implied) & stealing - which is roughly the equivalent of Valero clones now running in China. As for Iraq & Iran, why would they need the nukes & who'd help them? And if developing nukes, ICBM from scratch was so easy everyone would have them by now!
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Both USA and USSR were hostile at China at that time - USSR once suggested to bomb the nuclear base in China. Where could China get help?R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Oh quite lying, China used both USSR & then USA to get to where it is today!https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/sharing-t...
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
USSR was never willing to help China develop its nuke - Could you imagine USSR help Poland or East Germany to develop their nukes? They stopped all cooperation and aid to China in 1958 due to conflicts in ideology and sovereignty (China refuse to become a puppet state of USSR). All agreements related to nuclear weapon were never practically in effect.Did USSR help China? Yes, before 1958, but not on nukes.
Did USA help China? Yes, after 1970, after China already had nukes.
s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Such naive people, no wonder you folks are fooled by Huawei's facade.The USSR sent scientists over to help through half of the development, relationships broke down and they left but China also had a couple physicists who brought know-how from the US help finish the job, like Deng Jiaxian from Purdue and Qian Xuesen from MIT, eventually China completed the development of both nukes and ICBMs.
Notmyusualid - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
@ R0H1T - and their 'developed overnight' stealth fighter. I wonder how they got that to work so quickly...kgardas - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Probably faster than planned transition from ARM to RISC-V. That would be engineering answer of course...bortiz - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
ARM is owned by a Chinese venture firm. They also have a domestic architecture. Also, Fujitsu, who owns SPARC architecture now, also moved design and development to China. AMD just licensed and transferred IP of x86-64 b to a Chinese company. Only missing the IP to the new SIMD instructions. Don't know if they have access to AMD SIMD instr.Ixionuk - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Softbank who owns ARM is Japanese not ChineseR0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>AMD just licensed and transferred IP of x86-64 b to a Chinese company.No they didn't, stop making things up!
>Only missing the IP to the new SIMD instructions.
So you think they can tack AMD's AVX or AVX2 instructions on a run of the mill ARM or MIPS processor? Cool story.
Tamdrik - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I don't know about retaliation, but I imagine the main effect will be that China prioritizes investment in native chip design capabilities. They're already in the middle of a broad effort to identify and address critical areas where they lack self-sufficiency. As I understand it, that initiative is actually (indirectly) one of the reasons for the recent US economic pressure on China, in that China had been resorting to objectionable methods for obtaining some of the tech they sought towards fulfilling their goal of self-sufficiency. Though from what I've read, the immediate driver of the anti-Huawei actions is fear of China compromising 5G networks at the hardware level (I'm not sure what evidence is out there to support this concern apart from China's general proclivities for cyber operations).boeush - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Self-sufficiency us one of the major reasons for the trade war from the U.S. perspective, in fact. It's not good for the U.S. when its supply chains so heavily depend on a semi-hostile foreign power with ambitions for aggressive global expansion and domination - which furthermore insists on waging a multi-decade mercantilist and cleptocratic economic war against the U.S. despite having a "favored nation" status in trade.What happens if China eventually attacks/invades a U.S. ally (such as Taiwan or Japan, for instance) - would the U.S. be able to go to war when cut off from all its outsourced manufacturing, against a country that had turned itself into the world's factory? Bringing manufacturing and vital resource production back home, and/or diversifying the supply chain toward other trade partners, is actually a policy direction strongly aligned with U.S. national security interests.
Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Again, that's a great theoretical reason for a trade war, but it is not the reason for the current trade war. Always be careful not to mix theory with what's actually going on (let alone the Trump approved version of what's actually going on).If your claim here were true, the US could more easily have created its own industries *and subsidized them to be competitive*. It would be no more costly than the trade war and have a better long-term payoff. Note that that is *not what is happening here*.
Mark242 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
There is always the "nuclear" option of China telling Foxconn to stop producing IPhones ...wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
This will not happen. Chinese government will not do something to hurt their own economy only to pretend they are strong.US banned supercomputer tech export to China in 2011 to 12. China responded by building the fastest supercomputer, using its own manycore CPU, built on (at best) 32nm process by local foundry in 2015 or 16 - and probably things go the same way this time.
shing3232 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
They could ban the sales of Iphone in China， let locals and korea company to take the market share left by Apple.wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Ban on iphone makes no sense because there are enough competition and replacement.RSAUser - Friday, May 24, 2019 - link
China's super computers sit mostly unused, it's a status thing.They also managed to build "the most powerful" by just adding as many chips as they could, they're not very efficient, like 1/5th of Zen or so. The consumer side they have top-end chips capping at 8 cores 3GHz single core turbo with probably something like 45W and no L3 cache. Can't really say as haven't seen any reviews, only announcements. Basically CPU's in quality from the mid 2000's or so leveraging off of node shrinkage to up the core count.
Ixionuk - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
And Foxconn is Taiwanese not Chinese (although I'm sure China would love to annexe Taiwan!)wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Probably not much needed to do. First Huawei can still use ARM v8 instruction set in their future CPU. Second they spend over US$ 10B solely on R&D every year, and is still spending more year by year.Is is wise to force a close partner to become a potential competitor? I don't think ARM will agree. For Mr. Trump, WFC ARM as a Englsh/Japanese Company?
peevee - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
China has been suppressing US and other foreign companies forever. This is not even 1% of retaliation for that.If you are not aware, educate yourself.
name99 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
China plays the long game. They will eat shit for 15 years while they plot how this ends...The most obvious fracture point (and the reason this is not just fun and games) is Taiwan. Taiwan right now can be friends to both China and the US, and (in the past) both were OK with that. China would mutter about "one day Taiwan will return home" but leave that to the far distant future.
But if this lunacy goes further and Trump effectively forces Taiwan into an "it's us or them, make your choice but you can't do business with both of us", that doesn't end well. Both US electronics AND China have too much at stake to allow the other side EXCLUSIVE access to Taiwan. But these poorly-thought-out orders from the White House seem likely, at some point, to hit companies like TSMC and Foxconn, and then what?
vladx - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
This will not have an immediate effect on Huawei, current contract between Huawei and ARM will still allow Huawei to use currently licensed ARM architectures. This gives Huawei enough breeding room to develop its' own fully custom SoC in a few years.LemmingOverlord - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Yup. The risk is to HiSilicon as a subsidiary, rather than Huawei as a whole. In the end, all Huawei needs to do is use technology from another ARM licensee that has not been blacklisted by the US Government. That means they can still tap a number of partners with manufacturing facilities in mainland China. The most likely scenario is seeing the Chinese government call in some favours across the industry and merge a number of design centres and manufacturing facilities, "appropriate" (more) foreign IP, and reinforce its strategy to become technology-independent. They could also source chips from rivals Samsung, Qualcomm and Mediatek, of course. Huawei is not at risk except from panicky writers and financial analysts.wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I don't think ARM will be happy with this.R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>This gives Huawei enough breeding room to develop its' own fully custom SoC in a few years.Which cannot run ARM instructions, I doubt you can dance around the licensing of ARM tech with a custom SoC or whatever else you think Huawei will come up with.
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Huawei obtained the license to use ARM v8 architecture indefinitely. That's why only "Arm’s suspension only involves further technology transfers and development". Though ARM is not going to license future A5X or A7X IP to Huawei, it cannot stop Huawei develop their own based on current ARM v8 architecture.R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
>Huawei obtained the license to use ARM v8 architecture indefinitely.So basically they get the license in perpetuity, any source for this?
wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Huawei gained the ARMv8 architecture license in 2013, this could be googled although is too old to appear on official site of either Huawei or ARM. There was an article in Anandtech mentioning the dfferent type of license offered by ARM around that year I think.wilsonkf - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Architecture license allows companies like Qualcomm and Apple to design their own processors based on ARM v8. Do you think those companies will accept a license with limited lifespan when they need to commit tens of billions of dollars to it?uhuznaa - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
This escalated quickly... It's almost the economic equivalent to the Cuba missile crisis in the Cold War. Just that we don't have a rational player on one side this time.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
It's not like the Cuban missile crisis. That's a big exaggeration. And both sides have been acting rationally. They are just not willing to back down until forced to. China has a good thing going the way things are. They aren't going to change unless they are absolutely forced. Either America loses the political will to see it through, or China will eventually back down because it can no longer prop up its economy through debt and it has lost too much of the markets and technology from the US is relies on.RSAUser - Friday, May 24, 2019 - link
I'm still wondering what's going to happen to the China shadow debt in a couple of years.TristanSDX - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
So we have nagative effect of relying on their 'free' tech. EU, Russia and China should join to develop their own free technologies and standard, to get rid of US corps from their markets.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Why would the EU oppose the US? The EU is being harmed by Chinese policy almost as much as the US. The EU is most certainly hoping that the US gets China to change their ways.R0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Not just the EU, any current or potential competitors to China face discrimination & hostility in the mainland. This was bound to boil over, it's a good thing that the US is doing this since it is the US which led everyone into China thinking they'll mend their ways & become more democratic/less authoritarian.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Yes, treating hostile authoritarian nations like your enemy is definitely the best way to get them to become less authoritarian and more democratic. Just look at the Russian success story! /sR0H1T - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
And letting them be, taking over the world, is such a great idea?Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
The CCP isn't looking for your validation. The CCP doesn't need your moral condonement to operate and it doesn't care about your moral condemnation. The Chinese people will accept an authoritarian rule as long as it is considered legitimate in terms of Chinese cultural expectations and as long as they provide prosperity to the country. The CCP has probably raised a certain amount of resentment among Chinese as far as their interference in traditional Chinese culture, but they have provided the necessary ecenomic improvement over the past 30 years. The CCP has no intention of relinquishing authoritarian control. If one wishes to oppose authoritarianism in China then giving them special deals to allow them to be more economically successful than they would otherwise be is the wrong way to go. Western intelligentia must have been aware of this, but were arrogant and thought that such a centrally controlled economic expansion was not possible, plus they were probably blinded by their greed when looking at the Chinese market and the Chinese manufacturing capabilities. The CCP outsmarted them, plain and simple.s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
"US which led everyone into China thinking they'll mend their ways & become more democratic/less authoritarian"No chance of that though. Right now essentially every media, private or state-owned is wasting no time portraying the US as the big bad wolf and Huawei as the innocent sheep. The Party has long instilled the notion in every aspect of society under their direct control that Japan and the US are enemies of all Chinese, on top of their nationalistic brainwash that the fate of all Chinese are tied to the Party (the State, in their words, but they also define the Party as inseparable from the State, using "the choice of the People" as their excuse, as if the People are still capable of making choices) so you must make sacrifices when the Party (again, State in their words) asks for it.
I'm telling you it's worked, very well. Now the brainwashed make their own connection that Huawei's is an essential part of the State and must be protected at all costs, as such private bans(company scale boycotts directed by the management) of Apple and calls for buying Huawei are popping up in China. Why don't they boycott Intel and AMD? Oh wait...
Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
If that were true, the EU would be doing something themselves. Entire trading blocs of nations don't just sit around "hoping" that Trump will fix things for them.eva02langley - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
I don't see how can Huawei survive this.I spoke in the past about chips being almost entirely occidental technology, now we have a good example of this. China cannot do anything without chip makers as of now.
Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
If ARM, which is Japanese and not American, is going along with it, then Huawei will have few options. There's not enough time to develop anything themselves and anything they did develop would not be nearly as good, especially at first, not to mention compatibility issues. Besides, they won't have the borrower's advantage they had when they ascended so quickly the first time.s.yu - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Worst case for Huawei they'll just loan more and more and more from China Development Bank, which China uses mainly for infrastructure development but is also Huawei's allowance. I believe they don't have a credit limit there. They could be kept on life support as a national project for years until they're entirely independent of ARM, when they'll be hailed in China as heros, yet a "private company" that's fought and won the "evil" US.Yojimbo - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
I agree China won't give up on the development of the technology, but Huawei as we know it cannot exist if they can't make products. They stand to lose the bulk of their smartphone business as well as lower telecom equipment sales. In 2018 they had over $100 billion in revenue and they employed 188,000 people, according to Wikipedia. There would need to be layoffs. The brand itself is a valuable property, and it has been tarnished internationally already. It will be further tarnished if their market share plunges because they can't put products out. If they can't deal effectively with the customer service problems forthcoming then even more so. When they finally do come out with something on their own it's likely to not be as good as the competition.s.yu - Friday, May 24, 2019 - link
I agree that they'd have to lay off many people, but I don't see them losing more than 1/3 of the smartphone market, their market position in China will be strengthened by nationalism and they won't lose the whole international market either."The brand itself is a valuable property, and it has been tarnished internationally already." The brand is certainly valuable property, it's probably the most "valuable" brand in China, but I don't know about tarnished, I see even many western media defending Huawei out of obvious or not-so-obvious political reasons or a superficial understanding, and the Trump administration antagonized many before dealing with Huawei inadvertently casting a halo on Huawei.
Yojimbo - Saturday, May 25, 2019 - link
Huawei will definitely received a benefit from nationalism, but I am not sure if it will go so far that the young people will buy phones that they can't be satisfied with. If without Google and ARM Huawei loses functionality and user friendliness from their phones they may suffer even in China. A company can ask all employees to use Huawei, but how many of the employees actually will depends on the energy put into the campaign by all the low level managers and the general peer pressure. And then a university, I think, is not going to be able to seriously pressure all its students to use Huawei, and would it really go so far that the teachers would start shaming the students to follow through on it, anyway? Public announcements and social media trumpeting aren't real sacrifices. By themselves, they don't signify the reality of the situation. What I am trying to say is that yes, if Huawei manages to make competitive products then nationalism will probably carry them to strong market share in China, but if the technology restrictions make their products uncompetitive would an overwhelming majority of consumers who are used to a certain experience really be willing to give that up for the sake of Huawei?Regardless, Huawei losing their foreign sales still cuts their revenues in half, I think. In terms of the brand being tarnished, it doesn't have to be a moral judgment. Smartphone consumers are hardly going to be interested in rallying around a smartphone company. Their perception of the brand is not going to be based on what media sources say, but rather on the practical value of the phones. And if their phones lose functionality they lose appeal and that negative change will probably have a negative effect on the perception of the brand. Just a few years of less visibility can kill the momentum of the brand. Right now it's Huawei wow-way and in a few years if they claw their way back, whether through new hardware and software or through the end of the restrictions, it could very well be Huawei, oh yeah, I remember them.
s.yu - Friday, May 24, 2019 - link
Look at this for example, a major motorcycle manufacturer in China asking that all employees use Huawei: https://1drv.ms/u/s!Apr9zBuBUufHgaVFRHtVu8qS5O9rDAThis isn't a rare occurrence.
Xex360 - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
It's getting ridiculous, this fool in the white House is going to ruin the US and take with it other countries. The EU, China, and India and other countries should work together against this madness.Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
You think the EU and India want to get robbed by China? No, they are hoping the US gets China to change their ways. Of course they want it to be over sooner rather than later. Your fool in the White House is doing what should have been done 10 years ago, but greed and arrogance took precedence over the good of the American people.Spunjji - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Magical world you live in, where helpless nations look to the US for leadership and Trump acts in the interests of "the good of the American people".Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Firstly, nations do look to the US for leadership, whether you like it or not. But the EU isn't so much lookingforleadership here, rather they are looking to freeload. They don't want to be the one to charge up the hill but you can bet they'll plant a flag up there when they think it is safe.
Yes, Trump is acting for the good of the American people, as is his job, but that doesn't mean that things he does can't simultaneously be good for people elsewhere, whether by design or by happenstance. In this case it is a happenstance, and pretty obviously true, btw, that the policies of China that negatively affect the USA also negatively affect the EU and other countries.
t.s - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
@YojimboNo. Not all nations. At least not Southeast Asian nations. Who want US leadership when all this country do is wage a trade wars that harm other countries.
Yojimbo - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
Interesting that you speak for "Southeast Asian" nations. Is there a new dashed line we don't know about?Yojimbo - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
It's odd that you think it's somehow a fantasy workd for a President to be actibg for the good of the country that elected him. Even the CCP is acting for the good of China, as they see it. It doesn't take altruism to do one's job. A personal care - a sense of patriotism,for example- helps, but even that is not necessary. Just a personal resolve to do a good job, a desire to be well-remembered, a drive to prove people wrong... these things can lead people to do their jobs well.t.s - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
Yes, like Hitler.- Personal resolve to do a good job, check.
- A desire to be 'well'-remembered, check.
- A drive to prove people wrong, check.
And yeah, he did a 'good' job, eh? /s
Yojimbo - Thursday, May 23, 2019 - link
Did you deliberately ignore the point of the discussion thread just to mention Hitler? Your "checks" don't even make sense because I was just giving hypothetical examples of motivations people can have besides altruism.But actually you inadvertently brought up a very good example. Yes, Hitler was acting for the good of his country. It is an excellent point, in fact, because the guy I was replying to was implying that it's somehow a fantasy world to think a President is acting for the good of the country. The fact that even Hitler was acting for the good of his country exhibits how ridiculous the claim is, despite him making it in such a way that it seems like he thinks only a fool could think otherwise.
Opencg - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
Yeah I mean going forward more and more products will be IP. Our economies cannot coexist on the current paths we are on. Free market depends on incentive to develop IP. People may be upset by it but the hand is forced. China and the US both have the problem of abuse of power both economic and political. But China is clearly far FAR worse. What makes you think they wouldnt invade the Us if they could get away with it? Thier management style clearly shows a lack of morals.NICOXIS - Wednesday, May 22, 2019 - link
How come we haven't seen any Hi1620 review :)AshlayW - Sunday, May 26, 2019 - link
UK being the US lapdog again.amzounslideslide - Tuesday, August 13, 2019 - link
I just read about this too. Not good...