These are TERRIBLE numbers. I think what it means is that we've entered another recession. If it was just gaming, but also data center and other segments significantly dropped. Maybe not Y/Y but definitely from last quarter.
I don't understand the crypto pain, I thought AMD cards were best for crypto? Didn't crypto crash like almost a year ago? Oops, no its crashing now: https://www.coindesk.com/price/ethereum
Unlike with the first mining boom with bitcoin both companies GPUs were suitable for mining this time around and both ended up selling far above MSRP with scarce availability. This crypto mining run also had much more staying power due to various other factors (previous mining crash wasn't just due ot price crash but ASICs as well, this mining is more challenging for ASICs) and therefore stickiness.
In terms of so called "gaming" revenue if you look at the history Nvidia went from -
2015Q4 $646m to 2016Q4 - $810m to 2017Q4 $1348m to 2018Q4 $1739 to 2019Q4 954m.
The spike in 2017 and 2018 was when mining was happening. Clearly Nvidia just was categorizing all GPU distribution to the traditional retail channels as "gaming." Although in reality a huge chunk of it was for mining.
Well after market Stock prices is up 5%. So this isn't so bad.
Nvidia had 3 months of Channel Inventory in Q3. I.e If they had stopped all production they would still have 3 months of stock to be sold, assuming consumer still wants them. So the revenue aren't so bad as things are still "moving" so to speak, at least in time of Crypto crash and a slightly disappoint RTX GPU. I couldn't find their updated figures of Channel Inventory, otherwise everything on the table looks fine by me. ( Or should I say as expected )
"I don't understand the crypto pain, I thought AMD cards were best for crypto?" This is the urban myth that AMD fanboys have created in the past months to justify why AMD could not sell as many GPU as nvidia in the gaming market just thinking (or hoping) that they were all sucked up by the miners. In reality AMD "excellence" in crypto-mining was only in few algorithms (one of which the most famous, Ethereum were it was just a better in terms of price of the board vs MH/s done than in the MH/s done in absolute value). In many other algorithms nvidia GPU were much better and seen nvidia could produce 4 times what AMD could (as AMD cannot sustain their selling at discount, see how many Vega VII is producing) nvidia could sell much more tan AMD also in crypto market.
Recession would be fine right now. I like buying at a discount, but I don't think NVIDIA's slide is a predictor of overall market health. Crypto declines combined with foolish pricing on the RTX GPUs are two readily identifiable factors. A third is the age of current generation consoles. As most popular games are console-first releases, they target console hardware capabilities so the need for more PC graphics power is diminished over the life of each console generation. PC games are typically treated as second-class so in order for computer gaming hardware to enjoy success, the dependency is on console companies to release a next generation of systems. Ugh, it sucks playing second fiddle by being a PC gamer, but that's where all of us sit, at the mercy of Sony's PS-Whatever and Microsoft's XB-Next.
How did they depend on it? They took the extra sales and profits, and are now adjusting back to business as usual. Would they have been better off by not selling any GPUs for crypto-mining and just staying at their current level, omitting a few billions of profits?
Depending on what? You probably have not understood nothing of what is written in this article, leave alone economics and financials by themselves. nvidia has differentiated its product portfolio quite well, with revenues coming from the professional market which are about the same of those coming from the gaming market (when non doped by cripto) and other division doing more or less well as offshoots that may create new well sustained branches in the near future.
In a very difficult quarter they managed to get more than half a billion dollars of NET INCOME keeping the gross margin to a quite high level and announcing a better grow for the next quarter, that is they are not and will not sell at a discount their products. See what the competition has done in previous and has announced for the next quarter.
The fall of their stock values just depends on the diminished big returns that they previously had (and promised) in the past, not because the company is not doing well. They just returned to the levels previous crypto booming (with increased revenue nonetheless) and they'll start growing as they did from 1996 to 2016.
What they they just need is to get one on home console customer to accelerate the adoption rate of the new technology they are developing, leaving the old struggling competition in the dust with their mint new 7nm architecture that with 16GB of HBM at 1TB/s just managed to get to the performance levels of a 1080Ti 3 years later with even higher power consumption.
Price/Performance AMD generally has nVidia beat though... And consoles are extremely cost sensitive, so obviously nVidia isn't going to be the best choice for those devices.
In a quarter where nvidia has seen almost half of its gaming GPU not selling they made 500+ millions of NET INCOME. In the same quarter, where AMD has sold tons of Zen CPU it has seen and NET INCOME of $28. I write it just not to be misunderstood: twenty eight millions. Can you see who's trying to sell something at a discount? Can you see who's trying to compete with behemoth solutions vs smart and less energy hungry ones and doing that they have to sell the GPU at lower the production cost?
If nvidia manages to get MS or Sony as their customer for a future console AMD gfx division is dead as they'll loose the extra work needed to get some more TF from GCN. AMD will find itself a complete generation back the competition (and now that Intel is coming they have to hope that they'll not be the last ones again). And that will be true as long as AMD will continue use the poor GCN architecture.
TL;DR. Wall Street is full of humans, so expect them to blame anyone but themselves for their own faults.
Who cares about blame? Not Wall Street. Even if you had a year of simply picking money off the ground (how the crypto boom must have looked like to GPU vendors), Wall Street will see that as "the new normal" and demand even higher profits "what have you done for me lately".
There's also the issue that Wall Street assumed that crypto *was* the new normal, and bought stock at a price assuming that. When it was clear that wasn't true the stock made a similar crash to Earth. It also hasn't quite finished. It broke $35/share for the first time in 2016 (almost never above $30 before that), and is still $160 (not sure what the support is, I don't think AMD was any more competitive in 2016).
There are a lot of questions about whether the money from crypto was made to look like a "new normal" (since crypto buyers bought the same chips, it isn't like nVidia really cared). But that likely will involve a long drawn out suit that nobody will win except the lawyers (although I don't expect it will cost nVidia that much, proving such things is next to impossible).
Aren't those numbers very bad? only crypto Income made their Y/Y positive, how the markets reqacts with stock price increase? Gaming GPU maker sinking in selling Gaming GPU's and the market is fine with it?
Yes, those numbers are horrific and herald the fall and soon death of nvidia. /s How could they survive $500M+ net income in their worst quarter in 4 years?
Joke aside, crypto has crashed and the hangover is lingering. Inventory for older cards is slowly receding and their new products are selling (if slower than they'd like). The meteoric growth due to crypto demand is over, but even without it, nv is wildly profitable. Most electronic companies would kill for a 50%+ gross margins. Expect them to stay the course and keep doing what they're currently doing.
Crypto mining went bust .. we all knew this was going to happen. Nvidia made money off the insanity and now things are returning to normal. I got my RTX 2080 FE just yesterday, and it is BY FAR the best video card I have ever owned. It's fast, quiet, with an awesome design and build quality that that makes the partners products look like cheap crap... So disappointed that EVGA went for a crappy clear plastic cover ... it looks terrible. Big thanks to nvidia for raising the bar in so many directions.
I really don't see what you are talking about. I was ready to buy a GTX 1080TI last year for $800 but the crypto-mining fiasco sent availability into the toilet and prices sky high. The RTX 2080 FE is every bit as fast as the 1080TI ... plus ... has new features like RT and Tensor cores. That's raising the bar ... for the same price.
I do not understand how the earnings chart above can have any numbers for the 2019 year. This article is dated February 14, 2019; yet the chart includes 4th quarter 2019, 3rd quarter 2019 which are out in the future! The 1st quarter of 2019 has not yet transpired.
Phynaz, You evidently do not know the definition of "fiscal year". "[A]ny yearly period without regard to the calendar year, at the end of which a firm, government, etc., determines its financial condition. https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fiscal-year
At best the above chart is to do with estimated earnings if the years are accurate. All fiscal years actually have to occur or transpire.
Note the definition ". . . at the end of which . . ."!!!!!
Phynaz, you have revealed your stupidity/idiocy to all.
Nvidia's 2019 fiscal year ends on Jan 27. After that, they'll call it Q1 2020.
This is typical in stocks, though Nvidia's is an extreme case of fiscal year not aligning in calendar years. You might want to educate yourself next time before you call someone online stupid.
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austinsguitar - Thursday, February 14, 2019 - link
in the words of roblox... OOF. but seriously though. this is an INSANE blow...BigMamaInHouse - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Just Realized what DLSS stands for:D- Details
L- Lost
S- See
S- Screenshots
BigMamaInHouse - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
See the Image:https://i.postimg.cc/JzPxwv7J/DLSS2-Quality.jpg
webdoctors - Thursday, February 14, 2019 - link
These are TERRIBLE numbers. I think what it means is that we've entered another recession. If it was just gaming, but also data center and other segments significantly dropped. Maybe not Y/Y but definitely from last quarter.I don't understand the crypto pain, I thought AMD cards were best for crypto? Didn't crypto crash like almost a year ago? Oops, no its crashing now: https://www.coindesk.com/price/ethereum
Wow, to go from $800 down to $100, thats insane.
limitedaccess - Thursday, February 14, 2019 - link
Unlike with the first mining boom with bitcoin both companies GPUs were suitable for mining this time around and both ended up selling far above MSRP with scarce availability. This crypto mining run also had much more staying power due to various other factors (previous mining crash wasn't just due ot price crash but ASICs as well, this mining is more challenging for ASICs) and therefore stickiness.In terms of so called "gaming" revenue if you look at the history Nvidia went from -
2015Q4 $646m to 2016Q4 - $810m to 2017Q4 $1348m to 2018Q4 $1739 to 2019Q4 954m.
The spike in 2017 and 2018 was when mining was happening. Clearly Nvidia just was categorizing all GPU distribution to the traditional retail channels as "gaming." Although in reality a huge chunk of it was for mining.
haukionkannel - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Yep... we Are just back to normal situation!ksec - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Well after market Stock prices is up 5%. So this isn't so bad.Nvidia had 3 months of Channel Inventory in Q3. I.e If they had stopped all production they would still have 3 months of stock to be sold, assuming consumer still wants them. So the revenue aren't so bad as things are still "moving" so to speak, at least in time of Crypto crash and a slightly disappoint RTX GPU. I couldn't find their updated figures of Channel Inventory, otherwise everything on the table looks fine by me. ( Or should I say as expected )
qcmadness - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
From the Q4 pdf, it said DSI is 143 days.Lord of the Bored - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Buttcoins are never more than a couple weeks away from another crash.CiccioB - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
"I don't understand the crypto pain, I thought AMD cards were best for crypto?"This is the urban myth that AMD fanboys have created in the past months to justify why AMD could not sell as many GPU as nvidia in the gaming market just thinking (or hoping) that they were all sucked up by the miners.
In reality AMD "excellence" in crypto-mining was only in few algorithms (one of which the most famous, Ethereum were it was just a better in terms of price of the board vs MH/s done than in the MH/s done in absolute value). In many other algorithms nvidia GPU were much better and seen nvidia could produce 4 times what AMD could (as AMD cannot sustain their selling at discount, see how many Vega VII is producing) nvidia could sell much more tan AMD also in crypto market.
PeachNCream - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Recession would be fine right now. I like buying at a discount, but I don't think NVIDIA's slide is a predictor of overall market health. Crypto declines combined with foolish pricing on the RTX GPUs are two readily identifiable factors. A third is the age of current generation consoles. As most popular games are console-first releases, they target console hardware capabilities so the need for more PC graphics power is diminished over the life of each console generation. PC games are typically treated as second-class so in order for computer gaming hardware to enjoy success, the dependency is on console companies to release a next generation of systems. Ugh, it sucks playing second fiddle by being a PC gamer, but that's where all of us sit, at the mercy of Sony's PS-Whatever and Microsoft's XB-Next.stanleyipkiss - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
No CEO should survive numbers like these.Korguz - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
um yea.. how is nvidia's CEO to blame for the crypto mining crashing ??Samus - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
by depending on it in the first place. nVidia had been consistently profitable for years prior to the crypto boom.MrSpadge - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
How did they depend on it? They took the extra sales and profits, and are now adjusting back to business as usual. Would they have been better off by not selling any GPUs for crypto-mining and just staying at their current level, omitting a few billions of profits?CiccioB - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Depending on what?You probably have not understood nothing of what is written in this article, leave alone economics and financials by themselves.
nvidia has differentiated its product portfolio quite well, with revenues coming from the professional market which are about the same of those coming from the gaming market (when non doped by cripto) and other division doing more or less well as offshoots that may create new well sustained branches in the near future.
In a very difficult quarter they managed to get more than half a billion dollars of NET INCOME keeping the gross margin to a quite high level and announcing a better grow for the next quarter, that is they are not and will not sell at a discount their products.
See what the competition has done in previous and has announced for the next quarter.
The fall of their stock values just depends on the diminished big returns that they previously had (and promised) in the past, not because the company is not doing well.
They just returned to the levels previous crypto booming (with increased revenue nonetheless) and they'll start growing as they did from 1996 to 2016.
What they they just need is to get one on home console customer to accelerate the adoption rate of the new technology they are developing, leaving the old struggling competition in the dust with their mint new 7nm architecture that with 16GB of HBM at 1TB/s just managed to get to the performance levels of a 1080Ti 3 years later with even higher power consumption.
StevoLincolnite - Sunday, February 17, 2019 - link
Price/Performance AMD generally has nVidia beat though...And consoles are extremely cost sensitive, so obviously nVidia isn't going to be the best choice for those devices.
CiccioB - Monday, February 18, 2019 - link
In a quarter where nvidia has seen almost half of its gaming GPU not selling they made 500+ millions of NET INCOME.In the same quarter, where AMD has sold tons of Zen CPU it has seen and NET INCOME of $28. I write it just not to be misunderstood: twenty eight millions.
Can you see who's trying to sell something at a discount? Can you see who's trying to compete with behemoth solutions vs smart and less energy hungry ones and doing that they have to sell the GPU at lower the production cost?
If nvidia manages to get MS or Sony as their customer for a future console AMD gfx division is dead as they'll loose the extra work needed to get some more TF from GCN. AMD will find itself a complete generation back the competition (and now that Intel is coming they have to hope that they'll not be the last ones again). And that will be true as long as AMD will continue use the poor GCN architecture.
wumpus - Wednesday, February 20, 2019 - link
TL;DR. Wall Street is full of humans, so expect them to blame anyone but themselves for their own faults.Who cares about blame? Not Wall Street. Even if you had a year of simply picking money off the ground (how the crypto boom must have looked like to GPU vendors), Wall Street will see that as "the new normal" and demand even higher profits "what have you done for me lately".
There's also the issue that Wall Street assumed that crypto *was* the new normal, and bought stock at a price assuming that. When it was clear that wasn't true the stock made a similar crash to Earth. It also hasn't quite finished. It broke $35/share for the first time in 2016 (almost never above $30 before that), and is still $160 (not sure what the support is, I don't think AMD was any more competitive in 2016).
There are a lot of questions about whether the money from crypto was made to look like a "new normal" (since crypto buyers bought the same chips, it isn't like nVidia really cared). But that likely will involve a long drawn out suit that nobody will win except the lawyers (although I don't expect it will cost nVidia that much, proving such things is next to impossible).
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nvda/
Samus - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
wow.BigMamaInHouse - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Aren't those numbers very bad? only crypto Income made their Y/Y positive, how the markets reqacts with stock price increase? Gaming GPU maker sinking in selling Gaming GPU's and the market is fine with it?A5 - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
They had already warned about the sales slowdown post-crypto, so a lot of this had already been priced in to the stock price.frenchy_2001 - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Yes, those numbers are horrific and herald the fall and soon death of nvidia. /sHow could they survive $500M+ net income in their worst quarter in 4 years?
Joke aside, crypto has crashed and the hangover is lingering. Inventory for older cards is slowly receding and their new products are selling (if slower than they'd like).
The meteoric growth due to crypto demand is over, but even without it, nv is wildly profitable. Most electronic companies would kill for a 50%+ gross margins.
Expect them to stay the course and keep doing what they're currently doing.
TEAMSWITCHER - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Crypto mining went bust .. we all knew this was going to happen. Nvidia made money off the insanity and now things are returning to normal. I got my RTX 2080 FE just yesterday, and it is BY FAR the best video card I have ever owned. It's fast, quiet, with an awesome design and build quality that that makes the partners products look like cheap crap... So disappointed that EVGA went for a crappy clear plastic cover ... it looks terrible. Big thanks to nvidia for raising the bar in so many directions.PeachNCream - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
"Big thanks to nvidia for raising the bar in so many directions."Including that price bar. Heh.
TEAMSWITCHER - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
I really don't see what you are talking about. I was ready to buy a GTX 1080TI last year for $800 but the crypto-mining fiasco sent availability into the toilet and prices sky high. The RTX 2080 FE is every bit as fast as the 1080TI ... plus ... has new features like RT and Tensor cores. That's raising the bar ... for the same price.PeachNCream - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Hey, whatever makes you happy, I guess. Your life and all that.Farwalker2u - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
I do not understand how the earnings chart above can have any numbers for the 2019 year. This article is dated February 14, 2019; yet the chart includes 4th quarter 2019, 3rd quarter 2019 which are out in the future! The 1st quarter of 2019 has not yet transpired.Phynaz - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Another idiot that doesn't know what a fiscal year is and is too stupid to Google it.Farwalker2u - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
Phynaz,You evidently do not know the definition of "fiscal year".
"[A]ny yearly period without regard to the calendar year, at the end of which a firm, government, etc., determines its financial condition. https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fiscal-year
At best the above chart is to do with estimated earnings if the years are accurate.
All fiscal years actually have to occur or transpire.
Note the definition ". . . at the end of which . . ."!!!!!
Phynaz, you have revealed your stupidity/idiocy to all.
aryonoco - Friday, February 15, 2019 - link
That is not how fiscal year works dude.Nvidia's 2019 fiscal year ends on Jan 27. After that, they'll call it Q1 2020.
This is typical in stocks, though Nvidia's is an extreme case of fiscal year not aligning in calendar years. You might want to educate yourself next time before you call someone online stupid.