Original Link: https://www.anandtech.com/show/690
Introduction
Last month we brought you all CPU Roadmaps for 2001 from both AMD and Intel. We outlined in detail the two new Athlon cores that will be debuting in 2001 and into 2002, not to mention the two corresponding Duron cores. We outlined AMD's transition to x86-64 and their goal to bring a 64-bit architecture to the performance PC market segment.
On Intel's side of things we explained the positioning of the Pentium 4 processor over the next year, detailing the introduction of the 1.3GHz P4 as well as the first 2GHz processors. We provided info on the first 0.13-micron Pentium 4s as well as the "new" Pentium III that are due out late next year as well.
While just over a month has passed, we have received some more interesting information that will help to round out our coverage of the CPU manufacturers. With this updated information we are presenting a CPUs in 2001: Roadmap Update to help you all stay on top of the latest happenings in the ever-changing industry.
Before you proceed we strongly suggest that you read the following articles and their respective parts to gain a complete understanding of the codenames and products we are referring to in this update. Remember that this is only an update so you'll want to read our full roadmap articles for a complete picture of the immediate future of the CPU industry.
Related Articles
AMD CPU & Chipset Roadmap - November 2000
Intel Desktop CPU & Chipset Roadmap – November 2000
None of the information contained in this article is provided by AMD/Intel and the following roadmap may not hold true. Let’s just call it a set of “informed” guesses at what we think these companies will be doing in the next year. The dates mentioned here may change at any given time however we will make a strong effort to provide you all with the most up to date information as soon as we have it.
Now, on to the update.
New Year's Resolution: A new CPU every month
The trend of rapidly releasing new CPUs will continue in 2001 as the roadmaps of both the major manufacturers indicate that almost every month we will see at least one new CPU release.
Intel will be the first to introduce a new processor in 2001 and they will do so by introducing two processors in particular, a new Celeron and a new Pentium 4. As we mentioned in our Intel CPU & Chipset Roadmap, Intel will be releasing the first 100MHz FSB Celeron in January, at 800MHz.
Also in January will be the release of the 1.3GHz Pentium 4. The 1.3GHz Pentium 4 will be designed to push the Pentium 4 into the mainstream market as well as discourage users from purchasing high end Pentium IIIs in favor of picking up a similarly priced but "higher performance" Pentium 4. From what we have shown in our Pentium 4 Review, a 1.3GHz Pentium 4 will have much difficulty competing with a 1GHz Pentium III and in many cases will end up being slower.
While being introduced in January (and already present in Intel's datasheets), the 1.3GHz Pentium 4 will be out of the market's view by March and should be replaced by a 1.4GHz Pentium 4 carrying a reduced price. This makes you wonder if the 1.3GHz Pentium 4 is really all that necessary or if it is nothing more than a marketing trick designed to fill the current clock speed gap that exists between the fastest Pentium III and the slowest Pentium 4.
From the other side of the road, also in January, we will see the release of the Duron 850 from AMD. This will continue to give AMD the clock speed lead over Intel in the value market segment. However, as we saw in our reviews of the SiS 730S as well as the VIA KM133 (two value platforms specifically targeted at the Duron), the performance of the Duron is severely crippled by integrated solutions that it will be coupled with. It wouldn't be too surprising for a 100MHz FSB Celeron 800 on an i810E to come out faster than a Duron 800 on one of its new value platforms. This recent discovery will turn the Celeron vs Duron grudge match into one revolving around cost and driver maturity and not about performance, for OEMs and system integrators at least. For PC hardware enthusiasts that understand the value of the Duron processor as a high-end platform, the Celeron is still not as attractive.
In February/March the Athlon should gain another clock step or two taking it up to 1.33GHz and possibly up to 1.4GHz. Both of these CPUs will still be based on the current Thunderbird core and they should generate a considerable amount of heat. Luckily the 1.4GHz Athlon should be the last Thunderbird based processor for AMD, paving the way for the 1.5GHz Athlon based on the cooler running Palomino core to be released sometime in the May - June timeframe.
One question that continues to remain unanswered is what clock speed the first Palomino will actually run at. While we just mentioned that the first Palomino will be running at 1.5GHz, if you do the math you'll realize that 133MHz (the Athlon's new FSB) doesn't divide into 1500MHz to give a whole or a half multiplier. It is highly doubtful that AMD will use a 100MHz DDR FSB for the 1.5GHz processor, meaning that they will either introduce it as a 1466MHz part or a 1533MHz part using the 133MHz DDR FSB.
Intel finishes off the year
Backing up a couple of months, at the start of the second quarter, in April 2001, Intel is set to release the Pentium 4 at 1.7GHz. This will continue to give the Intel at least a 200MHz clock speed advantage over AMD. We have yet to see a 1.6GHz Pentium 4 listed on any roadmaps, indicating that if one were to be manufactured that it would be released sometime in February or March of 2001.
In May Intel will be bringing the second 100MHz FSB Celeron to market clocked at 850MHz. Also in May, Intel will re-release the 1.13GHz Pentium III, still based on the Coppermine core however with a new stepping which should be solid at 1.13GHz.
We are expecting to see AMD launch the Palomino and Morgan cores in the May-June timeframe as we mentioned above, which will close out the second quarter of CPU releases in 2001.
AMD will continue to ramp the speed of their Athlon and Duron parts throughout the rest of the year, unfortunately our sources have not revealed the estimated release dates for these CPUs other than the generic quarter figures we gave in our November 2000 Roadmap Update.
Over a year after the release of the first 1GHz processors, Intel will be releasing the first 2GHz processor which will, of course, be a Pentium 4 based on the current 0.18-micron Willamette core. This launch should come in July to kick off the third quarter and will be accompanied by the release of the first Tualatin-256 based Pentium III processor at 1.26GHz. Contrary to earlier reports about the Tualatin-256 based Pentium III, it will still use the 133MHz FSB. For more information on the Tualatin-256 core, read our latest Intel CPU & Chipset Roadmap.
August should see the release of the 900MHz Celeron, with the 950 and 1GHz parts not coming until October at earliest. Of course these releases will depend greatly on how AMD decides to ramp their Duron in clock speed that, from current indications, seems to be pretty aggressive.
Kicking off the final quarter of 2001, Intel will be releasing the first 0.13-micron Pentium 4 processors in October. These CPUs will feature a die that is half the size of the current 217mm^2 Pentium 4 die, making it much cheaper to produce and cooler running as well. The most recent information seems to indicate that the smaller die size of the Northwood processor (0.13-micron Pentium 4) will allow Intel to outfit it with 512KB of L2 cache instead of the 256KB that it features currently. For more information on the Northwood read our original preview of it as well as our article on Intel's 0.13-micron process.
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