I hope you are aware that its just a single step ? You still need crystals to be cat into wafers and many other pieces that needs to be imported to do so. china makes 20x more of them than usa, so chain still exists, but its china -> usa, not china -> taiwan -> usa, but hey its like 3% of USA silicon market can now be made locally.
Taiwan is not part of China no matter how much China wants it to be. It won’t be unless Taiwan agrees to be. China’s chips are over a generation behind TSMC, Samsung, and Intel’s fabs. China is still using 14nm.
Back in the day (1985-2005) you would shrink the transistors on a chip and get big improvements in performance and power consumption. Up until recently you would shrink the transistors on the chip and the transistors would get cheaper.
My understanding is that some of the reason for the eye popping prices of the 4-series graphics cards is that with the new nodes the cost per transistor is not going down, it is going up. There is a lot of expectation that reliability and lifespan may start going down for smaller transistors too. I have 22nm Intel parts that are running strong after 10 years, I think 14nm will hold up well too but it may be a 4-series NVIDIA card has a much shorter life.
Intel was more profitable than ever when it was "stuck" at 14nm, being hung up on manufacturing didn't really hurt their business at all. You might need smaller nodes to make $1800 smartphones thinner, but the rest of the industry might do fine with older nodes at some point.
> Intel was more profitable than ever when it was "stuck" at 14nm,
You are profitable with older nodes in case you don't have strong competition, as it is the case in all businesses - in case you don't have to fear competition, investments actually reduce your profits. However what Intel is currently facing is a direct result of their low-investment preriod - they are no longer first. and when you have to play catch-up instead of leader, you don't get nearly as much out of your investment as you are used to do.
regarding transistor cost - cost per transistor is going up, but smaller transistors are still faster and more efficient. thats why the most advanced chips are fabbed on the most advanced processes - only for commodity stuff (and IO/sram) older nodes are fine.
Oh please. Making wafers is easy and there's many companies in the USA that make them. There's two suppliers in Oregon alone where we buy our wafers. If push came to shove the big IC makers have the resources to create their own wafer factories on site.
Reminds me of people going "Chicken Little" over the Neon supply. "Oh my god! Ukraine isn't producing Neon! the entire chip industry will grind to a halt!!". Really? Like you're really that dumb? All you need is a cold metal tube.
As already implied, this is only a portion of the supply chain that must be developed if the US folk are interested in protected, domestic chip production. What might be more intelligent though, is to relearn how to do things with fewer integrated circuits and develop efficient means of achieving end state goals absent of a large number of ICs. In general, civilizations as-is are too dependent of them anyway to accomplish critical, survival-level activities which is absolutely asking for disaster to sweep down upon it in a variety of different fashions.
The aspect I'm really interested in is to see is how a Taiwanese company can manage US workers and their increased money/benefits/leisure vs Asia. This comes from having lived in Taiwan and meeting TSMC employees who are incredibly dedicated and work really long hours.
They're already having issues passing building code in Arizona because they're taking cheap shortcuts like they do in Taiwan and expecting to be able to bully their way through the inspections. But that's not going to fly here.
The CEO is also on record saying he's going to fly over a bunch of Taiwanese high schoolers because he can't find competent help in the United States.
I, for one, can't wait until China wipes their stupid little island off the map and rebuilds it.
Why Arizona, specifically? Semiconductor fabs can use millions of gallons of water per day, and the interiors need careful environmental control. At first glance, Arizona seems an unusual choice.
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Shaunathan - Wednesday, December 7, 2022 - link
i'm lovin' itRedGreenBlue - Wednesday, December 7, 2022 - link
You have a second.webdoctors - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
Wow, this should be amazing. Greatly reduce reliance on foreign supply chains for critical chips n tech. USA! USA! USA! USA! USA! USA!deil - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
I hope you are aware that its just a single step ? You still need crystals to be cat into wafers and many other pieces that needs to be imported to do so.china makes 20x more of them than usa, so chain still exists, but its china -> usa, not china -> taiwan -> usa, but hey its like 3% of USA silicon market can now be made locally.
Threska - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
The ingots get used for more than just ICs so any producer is going to serve more customers.https://youtu.be/Gej9UZZAnQ4
RedGreenBlue - Tuesday, December 13, 2022 - link
Taiwan is not part of China no matter how much China wants it to be. It won’t be unless Taiwan agrees to be. China’s chips are over a generation behind TSMC, Samsung, and Intel’s fabs. China is still using 14nm.PaulHoule - Friday, December 16, 2022 - link
14nm might be more of a solution than a problem.Back in the day (1985-2005) you would shrink the transistors on a chip and get big improvements in performance and power consumption. Up until recently you would shrink the transistors on the chip and the transistors would get cheaper.
My understanding is that some of the reason for the eye popping prices of the 4-series graphics cards is that with the new nodes the cost per transistor is not going down, it is going up. There is a lot of expectation that reliability and lifespan may start going down for smaller transistors too. I have 22nm Intel parts that are running strong after 10 years, I think 14nm will hold up well too but it may be a 4-series NVIDIA card has a much shorter life.
Intel was more profitable than ever when it was "stuck" at 14nm, being hung up on manufacturing didn't really hurt their business at all. You might need smaller nodes to make $1800 smartphones thinner, but the rest of the industry might do fine with older nodes at some point.
ceisserer - Sunday, January 8, 2023 - link
> Intel was more profitable than ever when it was "stuck" at 14nm,You are profitable with older nodes in case you don't have strong competition, as it is the case in all businesses - in case you don't have to fear competition, investments actually reduce your profits. However what Intel is currently facing is a direct result of their low-investment preriod - they are no longer first. and when you have to play catch-up instead of leader, you don't get nearly as much out of your investment as you are used to do.
regarding transistor cost - cost per transistor is going up, but smaller transistors are still faster and more efficient. thats why the most advanced chips are fabbed on the most advanced processes - only for commodity stuff (and IO/sram) older nodes are fine.
JKflipflop98 - Tuesday, January 10, 2023 - link
Oh please. Making wafers is easy and there's many companies in the USA that make them. There's two suppliers in Oregon alone where we buy our wafers. If push came to shove the big IC makers have the resources to create their own wafer factories on site.Reminds me of people going "Chicken Little" over the Neon supply. "Oh my god! Ukraine isn't producing Neon! the entire chip industry will grind to a halt!!". Really? Like you're really that dumb? All you need is a cold metal tube.
PeachNCream - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
As already implied, this is only a portion of the supply chain that must be developed if the US folk are interested in protected, domestic chip production. What might be more intelligent though, is to relearn how to do things with fewer integrated circuits and develop efficient means of achieving end state goals absent of a large number of ICs. In general, civilizations as-is are too dependent of them anyway to accomplish critical, survival-level activities which is absolutely asking for disaster to sweep down upon it in a variety of different fashions.bpurkapi - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
The aspect I'm really interested in is to see is how a Taiwanese company can manage US workers and their increased money/benefits/leisure vs Asia.This comes from having lived in Taiwan and meeting TSMC employees who are incredibly dedicated and work really long hours.
Threska - Thursday, December 8, 2022 - link
Most likely will do well.https://youtu.be/rzZC6aFsk3M
Oxford Guy - Tuesday, December 20, 2022 - link
‘This comes from having lived in Taiwan and meeting TSMC employees who are incredibly dedicated and work really long hours.’People should be incredibly dedicated to living their lives, as opposed to being drones.
JKflipflop98 - Tuesday, January 10, 2023 - link
That's exactly what he's talking about.They're already having issues passing building code in Arizona because they're taking cheap shortcuts like they do in Taiwan and expecting to be able to bully their way through the inspections. But that's not going to fly here.
The CEO is also on record saying he's going to fly over a bunch of Taiwanese high schoolers because he can't find competent help in the United States.
I, for one, can't wait until China wipes their stupid little island off the map and rebuilds it.
philehidiot - Wednesday, January 25, 2023 - link
"I, for one, can't wait until China wipes their stupid little island off the map and rebuilds it."Look, I'm supposed to be the idiot here. Stop stealing my thunder with your absurdly moronic comments.
Sivar - Wednesday, December 21, 2022 - link
Why Arizona, specifically? Semiconductor fabs can use millions of gallons of water per day, and the interiors need careful environmental control. At first glance, Arizona seems an unusual choice.