I am guessing AMD is pumping lots of money in R&D since their numbers are not that mind blowing given how big of a success they have in desktop, laptop and even server.
Their R&D went up $100 M year over year while their revenue went up ~$1 B year over year. The reason their earnings have not skyrocketed is because their gross margins has remained at 44%. So That ~$1 B in revenue amounts to ~$500 M in gross profit. then you subtract ~$200 M from R&D and SG&A and you get only ~$300 M in extra profits.
As far as server is concerned, they seemingly haven't been so successful there, yet. The big gains in their revenue came from desktop and laptop CPU sales and console SOCs.
Yup. They've a huge effort ahead of them to overturn Intel's incumbent lead in that area.
All you have to do is look at the solutions being pushed by big OEM houses like Dell and larger resellers - all these pre-defined, pre-validated arrangements of products, all still using Intel processors. It can't last forever in the face of better products for AMD, but it'll last a while, yet.
You hit the nail on the head. Good analysis. Gross margin drives so much. But still, earnings being up while R&D went up is good. But only so much head room with a low GM.
NO, check Q report. 504mil vs. last Q 460mil. Not exactly breaking records. But yeah, I would expect 100's of millions added, but nope, because margin too low, income too low etc. 406 R&D for 2019 Q3. They need to start charging more money for products and stop making console crap at single digit to mid teens if they want more money for R&D.
But yeah, 100% agree, these are odd results given 20% share in x86 vs. Intel NET INCOME. WTH is wrong AMD? At 80% share Intel made 23.6B, going down now but...You are in a pricing power position but still keep discounting your stuff. That is why this guy/gal is confused now. He guessed wrong, so now he/she should get it. AMD needs to make more INCOME. BOTTOM LINE ppl. You would think adding a 1B revenue vs. last year would do more. NO, not when chasing poor while Intel/NV chase rich and shaft poor if needed. Business is suppose to be ruthless, but AMD isn't.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/nvda/nvi... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/intc/int... AMD going up, but way below others, and even themselves from 2008-2011 (2011 1.45B). They went fabless ~2008, so that 2011 number is relevant. They need to make more income for more R&D. It is hard to win vs 8-9x Intel R&D, or even NV. Wow, NV gets it, kings win, and R&D makes kings. The Dark Mayor said the same 2011! AMD fired him for it and are now trying to do it in cpu...ROFLMAO. Gee hire him back, he'll price them right and kill consoles immediately for higher margin crap like Intel/NVDA. IF they had listened to Dirk 2011, we would have today happen in 2015 and AMD would not be part of consoles, and AMD would have 40-50% share today probably...LOL.
Hector ruined AMD with ATI then spun off to GF to ruin them too...ROFL. Dirk just needed a few more years adding R&D etc to KINGS (see his R&D years) and avoiding that whole ATI price tag would have helped him later too (no fab loss!)! ATI wasn't worth 1.5B at losses-60mil net income. They wrote 3.5B off later proving it.
I wonder how much will be written off of xilinx if Intel starts a price war 2021 or buys a bunch MORE of TSMC wafers to limit AMD (making big gpus there now...LOL anything to slow down AMD wafers) etc. AMD keeps making late moves. Xilinx is a response to NV/INTC moves and seem to be forcing a bad buy, AGAIN. Yeah good moves in both cases, but bad prices ON those moves hurt the point of doing it.
Business is WAR. Intel has many ways to hurt AMD for ages legally, and we already know they don't mind breaking the law for a decade or so either ;) 60B net income in 10yrs for a 1.5B fine handed to amd. They would risk that again, guaranteed, as that is just good business sense. Duh, it's kind of the obvious move at some point. Especially in a war with China where a govt has to leave you alone because they need you...LOL. Bean counters already did the math for sure on this if necessary, probably already greased congress pockets etc, just in case. I'd be shocked if the govt deal with Intel for packaging didn't come due to Trump (he wants USA UP in everything tech). TSMC might as well be China to Trump, Sk and samsung too.
I see good times ahead for MU at some point for the same reasons. WAR, or rather, avoiding it through strength. IE, Trump just said peace through strength yesterday at multiple "protests" (er, rally...LOL). Keep having protests until election trump! I don't know why anyone thinks AMD is in the driver seat. It is only until Intel decides to really fight, meaning other than just product. They can take wafers, price you to death, etc. Multi-billion wafer deal made with TSMC already, so guessing that's the crap hitting Q1+. Looking at new roadmap leak shows Intel is killing cpus faster than ever next year (pulling in the map). They did the same thing last time (and cheated too). It took about 3-4yrs, and it looks like maybe about the same this time or +1yr. OR 2022 for real kill? fab+packaging running all cylinders together by then (no price war needed at that point?)?? Intel won't fail die shrinks forever and people have been fired already as noted...The new people are surely UNDER THE GUN right? :)
Whatever, you will see the same results because AMD chose not to price right for 3yrs already and should be a few more designs ahead on R&D but wasted those teams on many socs for many versions of consoles in the last 7yrs. You could pull in your designs just like Intel until they lose but, you never made those banked designs for the coming years of war. You have 1-2 in the bag while Intel probably can kill the Q4 2021 chip quick too and more. People have been fired now (board pissed when that happens), so get ready for the real Intel response, or the effects of actions already taken coming soon. IE, TSMC chips from Intel, hybrid chips, price war, pulling in map faster etc etc. Higher prices or no margin which leads to less/no R&D and stop making peanut income chips!
Also agree that Intel might try to cut down on AMD's TSCM cake. Thats how intel broke AMD for almost a decade after the success of the Athlon XP and X2 series made them do a huge gamble and buy ATI and expand their fab business, which dragged AMD's resources.
This is very good news to start my day with. I'm thrilled for AMD and I hope that the positive momentum and growth continues into the future. I want them to continue to grow as a company and continue innovating and investing in R&D, so that they can remain competitive with other companies in this segment.
My next computer build will use AMD hardware, if I ever get around to it.
part of me feels that they can make more money by ditching radeon. the other part of me feels that they can make radeon and its drivers much better if they would put more money into it.
I think they need to keep their graphics going because it's vital to landing sales in large volume production parts like laptops. Also they need to have graphics capabilities to land design wins on the console side where Sony and Microsoft can keep the supply chain complexity down by getting processor and graphics from a one source. I don't think AMD would let Radeon go given what it enables in their product portfolio despite their current success in the enterprise space with EPYC.
No, they won't. Radeon is strategically extremely important to AMD. They're winning huge supercomputer contracts with a combined CPU + GPU solution. And cloud GPUs will probably be a huge growth driver for them once they release their CDNA line.
Ditch Radeon? LOL! That's a major key assets that makes AMD the only x86 CPU + GPU owning company. Without Radeon there would be no consoles, laptops, cloud gaming, GPU HPC and so on.
Their console strategy of making no money to keep Nvidia at bay is working brilliantly... Unfortunately, it's killing PC gaming. I can't think of a reason to own a PC right now. That's why I got a 16" MacBook Pro instead. I get awesome portable hardware for work, and can still game on a giant TV from the comfort of my sofa. Win-Win!
You DO know PC gaming is a huge growth market right?
The consoles are what have kept amd alive to develop Zen, I dont think it was much more strategic than that. You are right that it does give them some benefits beyond that, indeec. Every bit helps. Nvidia is not in trouble yet, though.
True, that is a disappointment. But they still seem to be set to lead over both of the upcoming platforms of intel - and if 2022 brings zen4 on 5nm the market is theirs to lose vs Intel. So while intel does good in terms of cash, you can't accelerate innovation with pure cash that easily, so for the next 12-18 months the roadmaps indicate intel will keep losing market share.
After that, well, we will see if Intels billions in research will start to pay off. They have staged a big turnaround before so I wouldn't bet against them but it is by no means guaranteed.
And hence "dazed" rather than "struggling" or the like.
Intel made a fantastic amount of money last quarter to be sure; the company is not in any meaningful risk of going into the red right now. However between Ice Lake Server being late and their consumer desktop parts still being stuck on 14nm, Intel is not in a good position to respond to Zen 3. And thus they're uncharacteristically dazed as AMD is going to be able to maneuver around them.
Intel: "We're targeting qualification at the end of Q4 with volume ramp shortly after in Q1."
AMD: "On track to begin shipments of next-generation “Milan” server processors to cloud and select HPC customers in Q4’20 with OEM availability in Q1’21"
Jay, You can't have been around the last time AMD had something superior. Intel was a damn sight more aggressive 20 years ago. Intel's behaviour this time around very much looks like they're knocked out for the count in comparison to last time.
Back then they had no issues with fabrication and it was more of a technological aspect. Which they resolved with CORE tech replacing the idiocy of NETBURST.
do you actually know what volume ramp means? Ice Lake will be available for OEM delivery May 2021 at the earliest and everybody knows its not a ground braking difference as a next generation Xeon, in fact many OEM advice most buyers just to continue with Cascade R till next release of Intel Xeon 2022. Yes the whole R series will be available till 2022 and this is for a reason.... AMD will have availability for OEM March at the latest. The only issue is that the share amount of devices (e.g. different types in lineup) is so limited because of the pay OEM R&D for designs is the new concept. In the past Intel screwed market share because of there volume deals (and were feed for that) the last few years they are doing it again by just funding OEM R&D for design wins... they just throw there money at it to get the most Device SKU.
conclusion: second time that the customer/consumer is screwed when buying from large system suppliers because of Intels criminal behavior. (but on the other hand AMD would not be able to fullfill the supply chain)
The fact that you had to quote so selectively - ignoring the desktop comments to focus purely on server, and ignoring the context behind the two quotes (i.e. whose estimates have actually been reliable recently) says it all really.
You can keep ranting that it's unfair all you want, but it's the truth.
"...and their consumer desktop parts still being stuck on 14nm"
and AMD took a year to respond to Intel's Ice Lake consumer laptop part processing.
and AMD still is stuck without responding to Intel's laptop introduction of thunderbolt, wifi6, avx512, dlboost.
Intel has pushed ahead again, introducing pcie4, thunderbolt 4, av1 decoding, 8k60 display, xe integrated graphics. Is AMD dazed?
The truth is that Intel builds on the order of 10x more chips than AMD and has ramped up laptop products first as it ramped up its 10nm yields and fabs. Now they are beginning to move on to Ice Lake Server and Alder Lake desktop 10nm designs, as well as 10nm FPGAs, P5900 familty parts, Lakefield and discrete Xe GPUs.
Yes, they will still build a 14nm Rocket Lake successor to Comet Lake, but you imply this is some sort of failure, while ignoring its new Willow Cove core, PCIE4 io, higher speed memory support and their 14nm history of superior clock rates. The truth is it can make good use of Intel's 14nm fab space to build what should be a killer high performance part.
PCIe 4.0 was first on x570 on AMD. Thunderbolt 4 is a rebranded thunderbolt 3 with no speed increase, av1 is supported by AMD, "8k60 display"... idk what you're on about here Intel doesn't make displays, xe graphics is in response to their iris graphics being uncompetitive with low end nvidia and AMD integraded offerings and is just a name rebrand as there won't be iris anymore...
Why do you think those figures have any relationship to the quote? Intel can make billions in their sleep, they're proving that right now. Doesn't change the fact that their response to a resurgent AMD has been lackluster and halting since 2017.
Looking at assets/debt basically both numbers half 2008 data. So not much diff there. From 2008-2016 it was basically a $2-10 stock (never over it). 2009-2011 they made 304m/471m/491m net income respectively with that 1B Dec Q4 in there. They might crack 1B this year finally for a full YEAR. But that's still only double previous years while 2x shares out there. So if it was never worth over $10 and you dilute it 1/2, it's $5 then. Double your income makes you $10ish today? Given that most of the other crap is essentially the same or worse vs. back then. I can't make $80 out of this stock any way I slice it, though I will admit it's far better than days ago. Net income up to almost 400mil for the Q, but miles from ~1.5B the stock price says. Raise prices AMD and quit making console crap for $100 that makes you $10-15 tops. Those teams should be working HIGH MARGIN products only. IE, Intel selling NAND biz. Because on ~2.8B revenue they had a OP income of ~600mil TTM IIRC (going up now that they're selling but not enough, and lost money for 2018/2019 NET). So Intel sees AMD console margins and SELLS that part of the company. NV saw those margins and passed as it robs from CORE R&D (yep, look at 3090, last 5yrs etc NV making 4B NET now). AMD chose to chase poor margins, small gpus, and got small income. NV/INTC chose to constantly chase rich (founders edit, HEDT, servers for both, workstations etc), and both made BILLIONS yearly.
Someone explain ~$80ish when shares are diluted 2x and income isn't ~8-10x 2009 when it was $2-9 (and most of that way below 9's in the 2-6 range most of time)? They are going the right way, but should have made the income already for 3yrs but instead acting like a king with price war powers (no, you're the little guy, big guy can bleed for YEARS, BILLIONS). All kinds of things about to help Intel by next xmas (2021, Q1 new chips, Q2 new one, Q4 new one, Q1/21 gpus etc). You have wasted 3/4 of your party. I really hope they start hitting 1B+ NET INCOME Q's from here forward or at some point people will look at this math vs. p/b, p/e, p/s, shares, etc, etc.
Packaging will become very important shortly and Intel is way ahead there over TSMC (by a year or more). At some point Intel will start the price war so you can't earn 1B Q's. I don't see how you get around them buying TSMC wafers (limits your supply, already multi Billion deal done) until their fabs are back on top or even. Backporting already works well at Intel as proven, and more next year. They have a ton of options to limit AMD and worst case you just break the laws again since they made 60B NET INCOME over a decade they screwed AMD and paid 1.5B settlement for doing it. Do it again...LOL. Same story with MSFT, don't expect them to play by the rules either (2.1B fine for more than Intel income IIRC). Even if it was 30-40B fine on that 60B, you still win, they didn't grow while you cheated. Considering the country NEEDS Intel for military (fabs and tech), expect more govt deals next 4yrs.
Start making NET INCOME AMD. Revenue isn't the same as the bottom line. Grow the bottom too! Taking share just pisses off the much more powerful NV/Intel (that should be done slowly at first while banking R&D income!). It's only worth doing that if you are making MONEY on that share. Both are now responding in many ways. Intel speeding up chip releases (killing them faster now) and using other fabs, ahead in packaging vs. TSMC etc and just won a contract with US govt for it. So your tax dollars are about to help Intel to keep TECH inside USA vs. everyone else :) https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/de...
Not good for TSMC, AMD, NV etc right?
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/de... Two Oct announcements with Govts: India is a great place to partner if you can't go China now with 1.4B people there that don't hate us and like business (trying to develop everything, good move by Intel to get this). Trump will be defending the country, and helping my stocks :) Biden will sell out to china; I hope people get this. Micron will be gaining from govt soon too as you can't count on HK/SK/Taiwan etc, might all be china soon right? Trump knows he needs, fabs, cpu/gpu, mem, tools, etc ALL in USA to stay ahead in tech for military (listen to his speeches). Intel is selling a chunk of the 11% of their plants etc in China in that nand deal for 9B. Good move. Sell the losing china crap and stock swap merge with micron soon? FTC won't blink with trump in. MU had 14B net income not long ago and will go back for DDR5 ramp etc. Cycle is coming. Good luck all, even the haters. Anything to get dems off welfare...LOL.
If anyone has data that can say why your stock is worth $76-80 bring it. Data means numbers in this case. It's like people have forgotten how to value a stock now. I could give tons of other metrics, check all the other tabs at macrotrends. $76? pfft. 36B for Xilinx? pfft. Remember ATI (5.4B for a company that never made more than 65mil/yr)? Not quite as bad here, but...Whatever. Time to read stock reports...LOL. Again, hope you all make money.
Try to cut your text in half while not saying less and use headers, it would make it an easier read. Now it is just a huge ramble, messy and hard to track.
My main comment besides that is that your stock price analysis, while correct, is missing the fact that the entire market is overvalued due to 'quantitative easing throwing too much money at the rich, money that goes in housing and the stock market without ever hitting the real economy. As money does it causes inflation of prices - stocks rising unreasonably - until it bursts. Be careful investing in stock now, it WILL crash. The stock market is worth 10x the entire economy, with our economic growth numbers that makes no sense... if a stockmarket reflects expectations when will our economy grow that 10x? Yeah, not soon...
Yes, the stock market is a pretty flexible mechanism. The main reason for the situation in the stock markets is the cautious forecasts for the next 6-12 months. The economy is now in a difficult situation and the profits of enterprises, which are the foundation of the stock market, may decline this year, which will increase the demand for loans. For example, on <a href="https://maybeloan.com/">https://maybeloan.... which offers quick payday loans without all the bureaucracy and certificates. The application form is very simple and straightforward, and approval is very fast. I'm sure this site will help a lot of people.
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yeeeeman - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
I am guessing AMD is pumping lots of money in R&D since their numbers are not that mind blowing given how big of a success they have in desktop, laptop and even server.Adramtech - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
R&D is an asset that doesn't impact earnings.Yojimbo - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
R&D is an operating expense. It is not an asset and it does impact earnings.Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
People say the weirdest things on these posts.Yojimbo - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
Their R&D went up $100 M year over year while their revenue went up ~$1 B year over year. The reason their earnings have not skyrocketed is because their gross margins has remained at 44%. So That ~$1 B in revenue amounts to ~$500 M in gross profit. then you subtract ~$200 M from R&D and SG&A and you get only ~$300 M in extra profits.As far as server is concerned, they seemingly haven't been so successful there, yet. The big gains in their revenue came from desktop and laptop CPU sales and console SOCs.
Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Yup. They've a huge effort ahead of them to overturn Intel's incumbent lead in that area.All you have to do is look at the solutions being pushed by big OEM houses like Dell and larger resellers - all these pre-defined, pre-validated arrangements of products, all still using Intel processors. It can't last forever in the face of better products for AMD, but it'll last a while, yet.
ingwe - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
You hit the nail on the head. Good analysis. Gross margin drives so much. But still, earnings being up while R&D went up is good. But only so much head room with a low GM.TheJian - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
NO, check Q report. 504mil vs. last Q 460mil. Not exactly breaking records. But yeah, I would expect 100's of millions added, but nope, because margin too low, income too low etc. 406 R&D for 2019 Q3. They need to start charging more money for products and stop making console crap at single digit to mid teens if they want more money for R&D.But yeah, 100% agree, these are odd results given 20% share in x86 vs. Intel NET INCOME. WTH is wrong AMD? At 80% share Intel made 23.6B, going down now but...You are in a pricing power position but still keep discounting your stuff. That is why this guy/gal is confused now. He guessed wrong, so now he/she should get it. AMD needs to make more INCOME. BOTTOM LINE ppl. You would think adding a 1B revenue vs. last year would do more. NO, not when chasing poor while Intel/NV chase rich and shaft poor if needed. Business is suppose to be ruthless, but AMD isn't.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/...
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/nvda/nvi...
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/intc/int...
AMD going up, but way below others, and even themselves from 2008-2011 (2011 1.45B). They went fabless ~2008, so that 2011 number is relevant. They need to make more income for more R&D. It is hard to win vs 8-9x Intel R&D, or even NV. Wow, NV gets it, kings win, and R&D makes kings. The Dark Mayor said the same 2011! AMD fired him for it and are now trying to do it in cpu...ROFLMAO. Gee hire him back, he'll price them right and kill consoles immediately for higher margin crap like Intel/NVDA. IF they had listened to Dirk 2011, we would have today happen in 2015 and AMD would not be part of consoles, and AMD would have 40-50% share today probably...LOL.
Hector ruined AMD with ATI then spun off to GF to ruin them too...ROFL. Dirk just needed a few more years adding R&D etc to KINGS (see his R&D years) and avoiding that whole ATI price tag would have helped him later too (no fab loss!)! ATI wasn't worth 1.5B at losses-60mil net income. They wrote 3.5B off later proving it.
I wonder how much will be written off of xilinx if Intel starts a price war 2021 or buys a bunch MORE of TSMC wafers to limit AMD (making big gpus there now...LOL anything to slow down AMD wafers) etc. AMD keeps making late moves. Xilinx is a response to NV/INTC moves and seem to be forcing a bad buy, AGAIN. Yeah good moves in both cases, but bad prices ON those moves hurt the point of doing it.
Business is WAR. Intel has many ways to hurt AMD for ages legally, and we already know they don't mind breaking the law for a decade or so either ;) 60B net income in 10yrs for a 1.5B fine handed to amd. They would risk that again, guaranteed, as that is just good business sense. Duh, it's kind of the obvious move at some point. Especially in a war with China where a govt has to leave you alone because they need you...LOL. Bean counters already did the math for sure on this if necessary, probably already greased congress pockets etc, just in case. I'd be shocked if the govt deal with Intel for packaging didn't come due to Trump (he wants USA UP in everything tech). TSMC might as well be China to Trump, Sk and samsung too.
I see good times ahead for MU at some point for the same reasons. WAR, or rather, avoiding it through strength. IE, Trump just said peace through strength yesterday at multiple "protests" (er, rally...LOL). Keep having protests until election trump! I don't know why anyone thinks AMD is in the driver seat. It is only until Intel decides to really fight, meaning other than just product. They can take wafers, price you to death, etc. Multi-billion wafer deal made with TSMC already, so guessing that's the crap hitting Q1+. Looking at new roadmap leak shows Intel is killing cpus faster than ever next year (pulling in the map). They did the same thing last time (and cheated too). It took about 3-4yrs, and it looks like maybe about the same this time or +1yr. OR 2022 for real kill? fab+packaging running all cylinders together by then (no price war needed at that point?)?? Intel won't fail die shrinks forever and people have been fired already as noted...The new people are surely UNDER THE GUN right? :)
Whatever, you will see the same results because AMD chose not to price right for 3yrs already and should be a few more designs ahead on R&D but wasted those teams on many socs for many versions of consoles in the last 7yrs. You could pull in your designs just like Intel until they lose but, you never made those banked designs for the coming years of war. You have 1-2 in the bag while Intel probably can kill the Q4 2021 chip quick too and more. People have been fired now (board pissed when that happens), so get ready for the real Intel response, or the effects of actions already taken coming soon. IE, TSMC chips from Intel, hybrid chips, price war, pulling in map faster etc etc. Higher prices or no margin which leads to less/no R&D and stop making peanut income chips!
tamalero - Saturday, November 7, 2020 - link
Intel sells more than just processors.Cant compare 1-1
tamalero - Saturday, November 7, 2020 - link
Also agree that Intel might try to cut down on AMD's TSCM cake.Thats how intel broke AMD for almost a decade after the success of the Athlon XP and X2 series made them do a huge gamble and buy ATI and expand their fab business, which dragged AMD's resources.
Rictorhell - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
This is very good news to start my day with. I'm thrilled for AMD and I hope that the positive momentum and growth continues into the future. I want them to continue to grow as a company and continue innovating and investing in R&D, so that they can remain competitive with other companies in this segment.My next computer build will use AMD hardware, if I ever get around to it.
meacupla - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
part of me feels that they can make more money by ditching radeon.the other part of me feels that they can make radeon and its drivers much better if they would put more money into it.
PeachNCream - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
I think they need to keep their graphics going because it's vital to landing sales in large volume production parts like laptops. Also they need to have graphics capabilities to land design wins on the console side where Sony and Microsoft can keep the supply chain complexity down by getting processor and graphics from a one source. I don't think AMD would let Radeon go given what it enables in their product portfolio despite their current success in the enterprise space with EPYC.senttoschool - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
No, they won't. Radeon is strategically extremely important to AMD. They're winning huge supercomputer contracts with a combined CPU + GPU solution. And cloud GPUs will probably be a huge growth driver for them once they release their CDNA line.T1beriu - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Ditch Radeon? LOL! That's a major key assets that makes AMD the only x86 CPU + GPU owning company. Without Radeon there would be no consoles, laptops, cloud gaming, GPU HPC and so on.TEAMSWITCHER - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Their console strategy of making no money to keep Nvidia at bay is working brilliantly... Unfortunately, it's killing PC gaming. I can't think of a reason to own a PC right now. That's why I got a 16" MacBook Pro instead. I get awesome portable hardware for work, and can still game on a giant TV from the comfort of my sofa. Win-Win!Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
"Unfortunately, it's killing PC gaming" - citation needed on that one?!"I can't think of a reason to own a PC right now" - this is what's known as a failure of imagination
jospoortvliet - Saturday, October 31, 2020 - link
You DO know PC gaming is a huge growth market right?The consoles are what have kept amd alive to develop Zen, I dont think it was much more strategic than that. You are right that it does give them some benefits beyond that, indeec. Every bit helps. Nvidia is not in trouble yet, though.
Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Fingers crossed this new release plays to your latter suspicions, there.versesuvius - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
"Settings Records ..." ?JayNor - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
"...market from an uncharacteristically dazed Intel."Intel chalked up $4.3B in net income vs AMD's "best q3 ever" $390M
Wreckage - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
And the headline for Intel's article was "challenging times ahead". Pretty obvious the narrative being sold here.Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Bloody hell... yes, everything that disagrees with your own bias is tHe ReAl BiAs 😑🤦♂️JayNor - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Yes, I also wonder why AMD gets a pass on their 7N+ reverting to 7N for zen3. AMD's explanation about that being their internal 7N+ was implausible.You can find dozens of articles going back two yrs extolling the benefits of AMD's move to EUV for zen3. AMD had plenty of time to correct these.
jospoortvliet - Saturday, October 31, 2020 - link
True, that is a disappointment. But they still seem to be set to lead over both of the upcoming platforms of intel - and if 2022 brings zen4 on 5nm the market is theirs to lose vs Intel. So while intel does good in terms of cash, you can't accelerate innovation with pure cash that easily, so for the next 12-18 months the roadmaps indicate intel will keep losing market share.After that, well, we will see if Intels billions in research will start to pay off. They have staged a big turnaround before so I wouldn't bet against them but it is by no means guaranteed.
Ryan Smith - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
And hence "dazed" rather than "struggling" or the like.Intel made a fantastic amount of money last quarter to be sure; the company is not in any meaningful risk of going into the red right now. However between Ice Lake Server being late and their consumer desktop parts still being stuck on 14nm, Intel is not in a good position to respond to Zen 3. And thus they're uncharacteristically dazed as AMD is going to be able to maneuver around them.
JayNor - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
Intel:"We're targeting qualification at the end of Q4 with volume ramp shortly after in Q1."
AMD:
"On track to begin shipments of next-generation “Milan” server processors to cloud and select HPC customers in Q4’20 with OEM availability in Q1’21"
doesn't look much different to me.
evanh - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Jay,You can't have been around the last time AMD had something superior. Intel was a damn sight more aggressive 20 years ago. Intel's behaviour this time around very much looks like they're knocked out for the count in comparison to last time.
tamalero - Saturday, November 7, 2020 - link
Back then they had no issues with fabrication and it was more of a technological aspect. Which they resolved with CORE tech replacing the idiocy of NETBURST.Teckk - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Except Intel has delayed a lot of stuff, multiple times. It’s also launching IceLake and Saphire Rapids server next year, if the Rapids is on time.duploxxx - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
do you actually know what volume ramp means?Ice Lake will be available for OEM delivery May 2021 at the earliest and everybody knows its not a ground braking difference as a next generation Xeon, in fact many OEM advice most buyers just to continue with Cascade R till next release of Intel Xeon 2022. Yes the whole R series will be available till 2022 and this is for a reason....
AMD will have availability for OEM March at the latest.
The only issue is that the share amount of devices (e.g. different types in lineup) is so limited because of the pay OEM R&D for designs is the new concept. In the past Intel screwed market share because of there volume deals (and were feed for that) the last few years they are doing it again by just funding OEM R&D for design wins... they just throw there money at it to get the most Device SKU.
conclusion: second time that the customer/consumer is screwed when buying from large system suppliers because of Intels criminal behavior. (but on the other hand AMD would not be able to fullfill the supply chain)
Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
The fact that you had to quote so selectively - ignoring the desktop comments to focus purely on server, and ignoring the context behind the two quotes (i.e. whose estimates have actually been reliable recently) says it all really.You can keep ranting that it's unfair all you want, but it's the truth.
JayNor - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
"...and their consumer desktop parts still being stuck on 14nm"and AMD took a year to respond to Intel's Ice Lake consumer laptop part processing.
and AMD still is stuck without responding to Intel's laptop introduction of thunderbolt, wifi6, avx512, dlboost.
Intel has pushed ahead again, introducing pcie4, thunderbolt 4, av1 decoding, 8k60 display, xe integrated graphics. Is AMD dazed?
The truth is that Intel builds on the order of 10x more chips than AMD and has ramped up laptop products first as it ramped up its 10nm yields and fabs. Now they are beginning to move on to Ice Lake Server and Alder Lake desktop 10nm designs, as well as 10nm FPGAs, P5900 familty parts, Lakefield and discrete Xe GPUs.
Yes, they will still build a 14nm Rocket Lake successor to Comet Lake, but you imply this is some sort of failure, while ignoring its new Willow Cove core, PCIE4 io, higher speed memory support and their 14nm history of superior clock rates. The truth is it can make good use of Intel's 14nm fab space to build what should be a killer high performance part.
anactoraaron - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
It really is obvious to find the fanboys in the comments. Fine...AVX512 is a niche (tell me who again uses this?), thunderbolt is proprietary, and amd doesn't make wifi chips.
"Intel has pushed ahead again, introducing pcie4, thunderbolt 4, av1 decoding, 8k60 display, xe integrated graphics."
PCIe 4.0 was first on x570 on AMD. Thunderbolt 4 is a rebranded thunderbolt 3 with no speed increase, av1 is supported by AMD, "8k60 display"... idk what you're on about here Intel doesn't make displays, xe graphics is in response to their iris graphics being uncompetitive with low end nvidia and AMD integraded offerings and is just a name rebrand as there won't be iris anymore...
Spunjji - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
Why do you think those figures have any relationship to the quote? Intel can make billions in their sleep, they're proving that right now. Doesn't change the fact that their response to a resurgent AMD has been lackluster and halting since 2017.Machinus - Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - link
Does bassing your income mean four times as much?BedfordTim - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
That sounds fishy to me.TheJian - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/...Dec 2009 1.646B revenue.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/...
Dec 2009 1B+ net income Q. 20% net margin back then too 1/2 that today (7.96% last Q). GM was 52/49 back to back Q's.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/...
Shares outstanding have tripled since 2006, doubled since 2009 Q I mentioned. So essentially your share today is worth 1/2 whatever it was 2009ish if all things were equal.
Looking at assets/debt basically both numbers half 2008 data. So not much diff there. From 2008-2016 it was basically a $2-10 stock (never over it). 2009-2011 they made 304m/471m/491m net income respectively with that 1B Dec Q4 in there. They might crack 1B this year finally for a full YEAR. But that's still only double previous years while 2x shares out there. So if it was never worth over $10 and you dilute it 1/2, it's $5 then. Double your income makes you $10ish today? Given that most of the other crap is essentially the same or worse vs. back then. I can't make $80 out of this stock any way I slice it, though I will admit it's far better than days ago. Net income up to almost 400mil for the Q, but miles from ~1.5B the stock price says. Raise prices AMD and quit making console crap for $100 that makes you $10-15 tops. Those teams should be working HIGH MARGIN products only. IE, Intel selling NAND biz. Because on ~2.8B revenue they had a OP income of ~600mil TTM IIRC (going up now that they're selling but not enough, and lost money for 2018/2019 NET). So Intel sees AMD console margins and SELLS that part of the company. NV saw those margins and passed as it robs from CORE R&D (yep, look at 3090, last 5yrs etc NV making 4B NET now). AMD chose to chase poor margins, small gpus, and got small income. NV/INTC chose to constantly chase rich (founders edit, HEDT, servers for both, workstations etc), and both made BILLIONS yearly.
Someone explain ~$80ish when shares are diluted 2x and income isn't ~8-10x 2009 when it was $2-9 (and most of that way below 9's in the 2-6 range most of time)? They are going the right way, but should have made the income already for 3yrs but instead acting like a king with price war powers (no, you're the little guy, big guy can bleed for YEARS, BILLIONS). All kinds of things about to help Intel by next xmas (2021, Q1 new chips, Q2 new one, Q4 new one, Q1/21 gpus etc). You have wasted 3/4 of your party. I really hope they start hitting 1B+ NET INCOME Q's from here forward or at some point people will look at this math vs. p/b, p/e, p/s, shares, etc, etc.
Packaging will become very important shortly and Intel is way ahead there over TSMC (by a year or more). At some point Intel will start the price war so you can't earn 1B Q's. I don't see how you get around them buying TSMC wafers (limits your supply, already multi Billion deal done) until their fabs are back on top or even. Backporting already works well at Intel as proven, and more next year. They have a ton of options to limit AMD and worst case you just break the laws again since they made 60B NET INCOME over a decade they screwed AMD and paid 1.5B settlement for doing it. Do it again...LOL. Same story with MSFT, don't expect them to play by the rules either (2.1B fine for more than Intel income IIRC). Even if it was 30-40B fine on that 60B, you still win, they didn't grow while you cheated. Considering the country NEEDS Intel for military (fabs and tech), expect more govt deals next 4yrs.
Start making NET INCOME AMD. Revenue isn't the same as the bottom line. Grow the bottom too! Taking share just pisses off the much more powerful NV/Intel (that should be done slowly at first while banking R&D income!). It's only worth doing that if you are making MONEY on that share. Both are now responding in many ways. Intel speeding up chip releases (killing them faster now) and using other fabs, ahead in packaging vs. TSMC etc and just won a contract with US govt for it. So your tax dollars are about to help Intel to keep TECH inside USA vs. everyone else :)
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/de...
Not good for TSMC, AMD, NV etc right?
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/de...
Two Oct announcements with Govts: India is a great place to partner if you can't go China now with 1.4B people there that don't hate us and like business (trying to develop everything, good move by Intel to get this). Trump will be defending the country, and helping my stocks :) Biden will sell out to china; I hope people get this. Micron will be gaining from govt soon too as you can't count on HK/SK/Taiwan etc, might all be china soon right? Trump knows he needs, fabs, cpu/gpu, mem, tools, etc ALL in USA to stay ahead in tech for military (listen to his speeches). Intel is selling a chunk of the 11% of their plants etc in China in that nand deal for 9B. Good move. Sell the losing china crap and stock swap merge with micron soon? FTC won't blink with trump in. MU had 14B net income not long ago and will go back for DDR5 ramp etc. Cycle is coming. Good luck all, even the haters. Anything to get dems off welfare...LOL.
If anyone has data that can say why your stock is worth $76-80 bring it. Data means numbers in this case. It's like people have forgotten how to value a stock now. I could give tons of other metrics, check all the other tabs at macrotrends. $76? pfft. 36B for Xilinx? pfft. Remember ATI (5.4B for a company that never made more than 65mil/yr)? Not quite as bad here, but...Whatever. Time to read stock reports...LOL. Again, hope you all make money.
TesseractOrion - Wednesday, October 28, 2020 - link
The Jian: TL: N(ever)Rjospoortvliet - Saturday, October 31, 2020 - link
Try to cut your text in half while not saying less and use headers, it would make it an easier read. Now it is just a huge ramble, messy and hard to track.My main comment besides that is that your stock price analysis, while correct, is missing the fact that the entire market is overvalued due to 'quantitative easing throwing too much money at the rich, money that goes in housing and the stock market without ever hitting the real economy. As money does it causes inflation of prices - stocks rising unreasonably - until it bursts. Be careful investing in stock now, it WILL crash. The stock market is worth 10x the entire economy, with our economic growth numbers that makes no sense... if a stockmarket reflects expectations when will our economy grow that 10x? Yeah, not soon...
MirdhaHuda - Saturday, November 7, 2020 - link
Want to see DDR-5 support and PCIe 5 release soon as possible.Mirdha Mohammad Nurul Huda, VP, Eastern Bank Limited, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.
Beneetley - Sunday, January 17, 2021 - link
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