HAMR is not the only technology at increasing HDD density.
A 7 year lifespan/warranty is excellent for a server grade HDD. Most server grade HDDs don't last more than 10 years anyways, and usually only come with a 5yr warranty.
The performance aspect isn't as critical nowadays as anything requiring performance has migrated to flash. Pricing will be expensive but less than enterprise flash, especially at a price/TB metric. Hard drives have their niche but it is shrinking.
And I do so love HDDs, but they're really getting to the point where a performance boost would be quite meaningful to a lot of users. It's not impossible either (2 independent heads have already been demonstrated), it's just a matter of advancing the tech.
bidnezz couldn't care less. the Bean Counters weigh the numbers - capacity MTBF warranty period price
so - they'll take the drives that maximizes the one (or several, with the weights they care about) metric. and buy 10s of thousands. when the warranty is about to end, they'll buy another 10s of thousands. rinse. repeat.
as a general rule - getting to the end of warranty with minimum failures is the easiest to manage. will a few TBs make a difference? not likely, if the warranty or MTBF are even a smidge better.
Yeah spinning rust tech - great, whatever, you do you WD.
Meanwhile, can someone please develop a solid state storage method that doesn't die after a couple thousand p/e cycles or fail at data retention if it's stored someplace warm for a year or two? We could kinda use that, perhaps somewhat more urgently than higher density hard drives.
The issues you mention are not present on HDDs, so maybe they're still relevant and could do with continued development. It is unlikely those issues will ever be solved as manufacturers constantly strive for ever higher cell density, which is more marketable but negatively affects write cycles. There's also the argument to be had that manufacturers are fine with endurance levels as they are since it is an acceptable amount of planned obsolescence.
On the other hand, the initial move to layers ("3D NAND") included also an increase in cell size to improve various properties.
Maybe with more layers, and when reaching a capacity that's more than enough for most people, manufacturers could start to differentiate based on other properties, like write durability and data retention.
2TB is mainstream now, and 4TB not rare either. Hynix plans +50% layers in 1-2 years. Roadmaps from them and others expect a doubling or more a few years later.
Apparently, the retention is poor enough that I’ve heard an Optane drive plugged in from cold storage will take some time to warm up by checking every bit for corruption. During that period, performance is slightly degraded. I’ll have to find the source, but I believe it pertains to benchmarking Optane P4800X.
It was Intel Optane / 3DXpoint. The investors at Intel do not care they only want their money to exponentially grow, so they dumped Intel and shorted it and moved to Apple, the ever stable WallSt fav. Intel is fumbling because of Mobile processors like ARM use and throw garbage outsell x86 parts and more people are not using Computers and also rather using stupid mobiles over a PC.
Ultimately on top of Intel's failures in the Lithography and CPU business which is bread and butter they did not care and fired Jim Keller on top. This company is being mismanaged since decade. Now we do not have any Optane successor.
Look at PCIe5.0 NVMe SSDs, esp 2280 total joke. Phison is never used in HPC only now they are starting and finally the only good thing is HDD technology.
If you want a reliable storage go for WD Gold or WD Ultrastar the true Datacenter series. WD's OptiNAND is a good tech but I think HAMR will take over ePMR. 50TB HDDs we need them badly.
It's odd that you'd condemn HDDs for failing so quickly only to then say that SSD lifespan should increase.
But even if you wanted an increase in lifespan, why would manufacturers do that when they can sell more product by allowing SSDs to have a shorter lifespan? People tend to think short term, so they buy the cheapest SSD. I've literally spoken to people who buy QLC SSDs. "They're so cheap," they say, "It's a good deal," they say. Never asking what will happen in a few years time. And this is without mentioning that a full drive write to a QLC SSD has been show to be slower than writing to an HDD.
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sheh - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
"one year to 1.5 years plus""1.5+" implies also 2 years possible.
"HAMR *could be* one of the next"
More uncertainty?
"reliable product that can last for several years"
"Several" and not "many". Questionable long-term reliability?
meacupla - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
HAMR is not the only technology at increasing HDD density.A 7 year lifespan/warranty is excellent for a server grade HDD.
Most server grade HDDs don't last more than 10 years anyways, and usually only come with a 5yr warranty.
ballsystemlord - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
I'd be more concerned about cost and performance with these advanced technologies.Kevin G - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
The performance aspect isn't as critical nowadays as anything requiring performance has migrated to flash. Pricing will be expensive but less than enterprise flash, especially at a price/TB metric. Hard drives have their niche but it is shrinking.ballsystemlord - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
And I do so love HDDs, but they're really getting to the point where a performance boost would be quite meaningful to a lot of users. It's not impossible either (2 independent heads have already been demonstrated), it's just a matter of advancing the tech.FunBunny2 - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
Questionable long-term reliability?bidnezz couldn't care less. the Bean Counters weigh the numbers -
capacity
MTBF
warranty period
price
so - they'll take the drives that maximizes the one (or several, with the weights they care about) metric. and buy 10s of thousands. when the warranty is about to end, they'll buy another 10s of thousands. rinse. repeat.
as a general rule - getting to the end of warranty with minimum failures is the easiest to manage. will a few TBs make a difference? not likely, if the warranty or MTBF are even a smidge better.
PeachNCream - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
Yeah spinning rust tech - great, whatever, you do you WD.Meanwhile, can someone please develop a solid state storage method that doesn't die after a couple thousand p/e cycles or fail at data retention if it's stored someplace warm for a year or two? We could kinda use that, perhaps somewhat more urgently than higher density hard drives.
EnFission - Monday, June 12, 2023 - link
The issues you mention are not present on HDDs, so maybe they're still relevant and could do with continued development. It is unlikely those issues will ever be solved as manufacturers constantly strive for ever higher cell density, which is more marketable but negatively affects write cycles. There's also the argument to be had that manufacturers are fine with endurance levels as they are since it is an acceptable amount of planned obsolescence.sheh - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
On the other hand, the initial move to layers ("3D NAND") included also an increase in cell size to improve various properties.Maybe with more layers, and when reaching a capacity that's more than enough for most people, manufacturers could start to differentiate based on other properties, like write durability and data retention.
2TB is mainstream now, and 4TB not rare either. Hynix plans +50% layers in 1-2 years. Roadmaps from them and others expect a doubling or more a few years later.
nandnandnand - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
I heard about this amazing technology called 3D XPoint, or Optane.In the meantime, have some PLC NAND.
Igor_Kavinski - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
You funny! Golden Buzzer you deserve!sheh - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
I don't recall seeing any retention specs for Optane?LiKenun - Friday, June 16, 2023 - link
Apparently, the retention is poor enough that I’ve heard an Optane drive plugged in from cold storage will take some time to warm up by checking every bit for corruption. During that period, performance is slightly degraded. I’ll have to find the source, but I believe it pertains to benchmarking Optane P4800X.Silver5urfer - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
It was Intel Optane / 3DXpoint. The investors at Intel do not care they only want their money to exponentially grow, so they dumped Intel and shorted it and moved to Apple, the ever stable WallSt fav. Intel is fumbling because of Mobile processors like ARM use and throw garbage outsell x86 parts and more people are not using Computers and also rather using stupid mobiles over a PC.Ultimately on top of Intel's failures in the Lithography and CPU business which is bread and butter they did not care and fired Jim Keller on top. This company is being mismanaged since decade. Now we do not have any Optane successor.
Look at PCIe5.0 NVMe SSDs, esp 2280 total joke. Phison is never used in HPC only now they are starting and finally the only good thing is HDD technology.
If you want a reliable storage go for WD Gold or WD Ultrastar the true Datacenter series. WD's OptiNAND is a good tech but I think HAMR will take over ePMR. 50TB HDDs we need them badly.
ballsystemlord - Tuesday, June 13, 2023 - link
It's odd that you'd condemn HDDs for failing so quickly only to then say that SSD lifespan should increase.But even if you wanted an increase in lifespan, why would manufacturers do that when they can sell more product by allowing SSDs to have a shorter lifespan?
People tend to think short term, so they buy the cheapest SSD. I've literally spoken to people who buy QLC SSDs. "They're so cheap," they say, "It's a good deal," they say. Never asking what will happen in a few years time. And this is without mentioning that a full drive write to a QLC SSD has been show to be slower than writing to an HDD.
ballsystemlord - Thursday, June 15, 2023 - link
EDIT: This was supposed to be in reply to PeachNCream 's comment above.