Are some people expecting consolidation? I would imagine if TSMC and Samsung keep going the way they are they might be the only two foundry players plus Intel doing its own thing but It won't because they consolidate its because they put other foundries out of business. They are both building new fondires for new processes and they are both leading edge which also means they have old fandries for old processes so why would they merge/acquire any other foundry?
Expecially now that the revenue is down, they do not need of more capacity. A lot of customers are very happy on 14nm, 12nm or 11nm. They can push the marketing a lot on 7nm or 5nm, the realty these processes too expensive right now, not a big deal in high power SKUs, a delusion on SOCs with lower power advantages as the process shrink. I have friends with last 7nm devices on their phones, yes there have few more feature but the batteries last short. 7nm and almost for sure 5nm do not give what they promise and many customers are avoiding them.
7nm and 5nm probably do offer substantial gains. But manufacturers probably choose performance over efficiency, in hi end smartphones and not to forget that screens eat probably the most power anyway in a smartphone.
If nothing else, they're still busy paying off the multi-billion $ loans they had to take out to build their 7 nm fab. The recent slump they saw, also due to low demand for their 10 nm capacity, makes any acquisition quite unattractive.
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FreckledTrout - Monday, April 22, 2019 - link
Are some people expecting consolidation? I would imagine if TSMC and Samsung keep going the way they are they might be the only two foundry players plus Intel doing its own thing but It won't because they consolidate its because they put other foundries out of business. They are both building new fondires for new processes and they are both leading edge which also means they have old fandries for old processes so why would they merge/acquire any other foundry?Gondalf - Tuesday, April 23, 2019 - link
Expecially now that the revenue is down, they do not need of more capacity. A lot of customers are very happy on 14nm, 12nm or 11nm.They can push the marketing a lot on 7nm or 5nm, the realty these processes too expensive right now, not a big deal in high power SKUs, a delusion on SOCs with lower power advantages as the process shrink.
I have friends with last 7nm devices on their phones, yes there have few more feature but the batteries last short. 7nm and almost for sure 5nm do not give what they promise and many customers are avoiding them.
So TSMC better stay with actual clean room space.
yannigr2 - Tuesday, April 23, 2019 - link
7nm and 5nm probably do offer substantial gains. But manufacturers probably choose performance over efficiency, in hi end smartphones and not to forget that screens eat probably the most power anyway in a smartphone.eastcoast_pete - Tuesday, April 23, 2019 - link
If nothing else, they're still busy paying off the multi-billion $ loans they had to take out to build their 7 nm fab. The recent slump they saw, also due to low demand for their 10 nm capacity, makes any acquisition quite unattractive.