Glad to see Surface growing, should mean they'll keep up with it. I hope that goes for the non-pro Surface, too. Does Goldmont have an ETA? I would imagine a refreshed Surface 4 would wait for it.
There is also the 1.7B in deferred revenue for w10 this previously was accrued in the sales quarter Now its is spread out over 2 yrs I believe. That and the 1.2b in exchange fluctuations really does not look an issue....
When Microsoft notes, "Outlook has been installed on over 30 million active iOS and Android devices," they probably shouldn't be too proud of themselves on that note. At least through the stock browser on KitKat (and Opera too for that matter), uploading attachments to an e-mail in Outlook via the browser is a broken process which almost requires you use the app instead.
You're speaking as a fan. I'd say a more objective view is that Surface is in conceptually the same position as MS Phone. There's a small (but very vocal) core of true believers who love the device; but it simply doesn't solve a problem most people have. For most people a traditional Windows laptop, a flavor of iPad, maybe a MacBook, or a cheap Android tablet better meet their particular needs (depending on the details --- do they need to type a lot? is their primary interest watching movies? etc)
MS has pinned all its hopes on convergence --- converged UI across devices, and converged devices (something like Continuum on Phones is part of this). I think it is an objective fact that this strategy has failed. That doesn't mean it's ALWAYS going to be a bad idea, but it was a bad idea for MS at this point in time; it got them wasting time solving non-problems rather than solving the REAL problem of the future, ie how to create a personal device eco-system whereby all the various devices one uses all communicate well together. My suspicion is that MS has already hit the same point as iPad --- they've sold to everyone who wants one, and now they're on replacement cycle. Only being Intel based (and so more constrained in how rapidly they can change) that replacement cycle is going to look even worse than Apple's.
my university ordered 100 surface pro 4's for the professors and administration faculty. I would imagine that other schools are doing this too. you will never see this with windows phone.
The Form Factor and versatility combined with raw machine power is what's selling these, not some convergence factor. The Surface Pro series is just now stretching it's legs, with the 3 and 4 the only versions worth considering. They have a long time before they are in the same shape as iPads. The upgrade cycle will be about the same, but the form factor lends itself to the markets needs.
You're assuming there's a large pool of people for whom - portability is SO important that Surface is a better solution than a laptop AND - they need/want to use Windows. I just don't see it. $1.35 billion revenue is nothing. That's about 20% of iPad revenue. http://www.statista.com/statistics/269914/apples-g...
The best comparable sequence I can find for Surface is here: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/29/1... It omits 2015, but I don't think it changes much. There/s probably a slight profit in 2015 rather than the stream of earlier losses, but the overall picture is essentially flat, only a small rise.
My point is not "rah-rah Apple", it's what I said in the earlier post: it is easy for fans to blind themselves to the reality of the situation with Surface, just like they did with Lumia.
It is possible (I don't know) that those buying imagine the way MS is playing out will result in them finally accepting the reality that they are an Enterprise/Business company, not a consumer company, and that that in turn will mean they FINALLY focus their efforts in the direction that actually makes sense for them and produce a stream of business-pleasing products that make money, rather than a stream of consumer-directed (but unpopular) products that mostly piss off enterprise.
I think they have already pivoted there to a certain extent. Balmer was the holdup and Nadella has been pretty insistent that they are will squeeze out every available dollar from Windows until it dies.
Long-term the stock price is a reflection of how well the Cloud business is growing. Azure is slowly becoming the only reasonable alternative to AWS in scale and price. Last research note I read had AWS at 4x the size of Azure/MS and just those 2 making up 85% of the market.
There will come a time where Anandtech may never even cover Microsoft as everything moves to the cloud and cloud related services. Surface is a nice little business but long-term the value of microsoft is 100% based on Office (and similar enterprise products) and as a Cloud platform.
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icrf - Thursday, January 28, 2016 - link
Glad to see Surface growing, should mean they'll keep up with it. I hope that goes for the non-pro Surface, too. Does Goldmont have an ETA? I would imagine a refreshed Surface 4 would wait for it.whatsa - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
There is also the 1.7B in deferred revenue for w10 this previously was accrued in the sales quarterNow its is spread out over 2 yrs I believe.
That and the 1.2b in exchange fluctuations really does not look an issue....
BrokenCrayons - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
When Microsoft notes, "Outlook has been installed on over 30 million active iOS and Android devices," they probably shouldn't be too proud of themselves on that note. At least through the stock browser on KitKat (and Opera too for that matter), uploading attachments to an e-mail in Outlook via the browser is a broken process which almost requires you use the app instead.BMNify - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
Surface Line has grown to impressive $1.35 Billion, this should only grow in the future as they expand surface line to more markets around the World.name99 - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
You're speaking as a fan.I'd say a more objective view is that Surface is in conceptually the same position as MS Phone. There's a small (but very vocal) core of true believers who love the device; but it simply doesn't solve a problem most people have. For most people a traditional Windows laptop, a flavor of iPad, maybe a MacBook, or a cheap Android tablet better meet their particular needs (depending on the details --- do they need to type a lot? is their primary interest watching movies? etc)
MS has pinned all its hopes on convergence --- converged UI across devices, and converged devices (something like Continuum on Phones is part of this). I think it is an objective fact that this strategy has failed. That doesn't mean it's ALWAYS going to be a bad idea, but it was a bad idea for MS at this point in time; it got them wasting time solving non-problems rather than solving the REAL problem of the future, ie how to create a personal device eco-system whereby all the various devices one uses all communicate well together.
My suspicion is that MS has already hit the same point as iPad --- they've sold to everyone who wants one, and now they're on replacement cycle. Only being Intel based (and so more constrained in how rapidly they can change) that replacement cycle is going to look even worse than Apple's.
jasonelmore - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
my university ordered 100 surface pro 4's for the professors and administration faculty. I would imagine that other schools are doing this too. you will never see this with windows phone.The Form Factor and versatility combined with raw machine power is what's selling these, not some convergence factor. The Surface Pro series is just now stretching it's legs, with the 3 and 4 the only versions worth considering. They have a long time before they are in the same shape as iPads. The upgrade cycle will be about the same, but the form factor lends itself to the markets needs.
name99 - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
You're assuming there's a large pool of people for whom- portability is SO important that Surface is a better solution than a laptop AND
- they need/want to use Windows.
I just don't see it.
$1.35 billion revenue is nothing. That's about 20% of iPad revenue.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/269914/apples-g...
The best comparable sequence I can find for Surface is here:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/29/1...
It omits 2015, but I don't think it changes much. There/s probably a slight profit in 2015 rather than the stream of earlier losses, but the overall picture is essentially flat, only a small rise.
Here's a side-by-side comparison:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3350195-apple-the-...
My point is not "rah-rah Apple", it's what I said in the earlier post: it is easy for fans to blind themselves to the reality of the situation with Surface, just like they did with Lumia.
Michael Bay - Monday, February 1, 2016 - link
>$1.35 billion revenue is nothingI would sure like such nothing for myself.
steven75 - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
Stick a fork in Windows Phone.Shadowmaster625 - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
EPS down 10% vs a year ago, stock price up 10% vs a year ago. That. will. end. well....name99 - Friday, January 29, 2016 - link
It is possible (I don't know) that those buying imagine the way MS is playing out will result in them finally accepting the reality that they are an Enterprise/Business company, not a consumer company, and that that in turn will mean they FINALLY focus their efforts in the direction that actually makes sense for them and produce a stream of business-pleasing products that make money, rather than a stream of consumer-directed (but unpopular) products that mostly piss off enterprise.errorr - Sunday, January 31, 2016 - link
I think they have already pivoted there to a certain extent. Balmer was the holdup and Nadella has been pretty insistent that they are will squeeze out every available dollar from Windows until it dies.Long-term the stock price is a reflection of how well the Cloud business is growing. Azure is slowly becoming the only reasonable alternative to AWS in scale and price. Last research note I read had AWS at 4x the size of Azure/MS and just those 2 making up 85% of the market.
There will come a time where Anandtech may never even cover Microsoft as everything moves to the cloud and cloud related services. Surface is a nice little business but long-term the value of microsoft is 100% based on Office (and similar enterprise products) and as a Cloud platform.
Michael Bay - Monday, February 1, 2016 - link
Pipedreams. Home PC Windows is with us for a long time yet.